May 23, 2016 · 23m · 20vc

20VC: K9's Manu Kumar on His Approach To Risk, Valuation & Believing What Other People Don't

Manu Kumar · 14m spoken Harry Stebbings · 7m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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In this episode of The 20 Minute VC, host Harry Stebbings interviews Manu Kumar, founder of K9 Ventures, about his pioneering approach to pre-seed investing, non-consensus technology bets, valuation discipline, and active portfolio support.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Harry holds 35.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Harry as informed peer 2.4 Guest teaching 2.0 Guest disagreement 0.8 Harry pushing back 0.8
05100:0010:0020:002:07–5:44 · Harry as informed peer 1/10 Defining Entrepreneurship and K9's Origin Story Harry opens the interview with a lighthearted setup asking for Manu's definition of entrepreneurship and how it shaped his early career. Manu shares an entertaining anecdote about showing up uninvited to Jack Thorne's oversubscribed class at Carnegie Mellon, establishing a warm and friendly rapport.5:45–8:42 · Harry as informed peer 3/10 Non-Consensus Investing and Securing Follow-On Capital Harry introduces a quote by Howard Marks on non-consensus investing and probes whether backing alternative technology makes follow-on financing difficult. Manu describes himself as an eHarmony for follow-on capital to help bridge pre-seed companies to traditional seed investors.8:43–13:51 · Harry as informed peer 4/10 Pre-Seed Risk, Check Sizes, and Valuation Sensitivity Harry brings quotes from Howard Marks and Josh Koppelman to press Manu on risk assessment, check sizes, and price sensitivity. Manu clarifies that traditional risk assessment does not apply at pre-seed and emphasizes that he walks away from over-priced deals and avoids convertible notes.13:55–18:41 · Harry as informed peer 3/10 Minimizing Mortality Rates and Co-Founding Companies Harry asks about VC mortality rates and how Manu balances time between struggling vs winning portfolio companies. Manu explains that treating startups like lottery tickets is unfair to founders, driving his strategy to back fewer companies and double down on support.18:44–22:21 · Harry as informed peer 1/10 Quickfire Round: Habits, Tech, and Recent Investments In a rapid-fire round, Harry asks Manu to name his most excited sector, to which Manu abruptly replies Absolutely none, rejecting sector-based strategies in favor of radical tech or market shifts. The rest of the exchange covers personal habits, productivity hacks, and his recent investment in Gradescope.2:07–5:44 · Guest teaching 1/10 Defining Entrepreneurship and K9's Origin Story Harry opens the interview with a lighthearted setup asking for Manu's definition of entrepreneurship and how it shaped his early career. Manu shares an entertaining anecdote about showing up uninvited to Jack Thorne's oversubscribed class at Carnegie Mellon, establishing a warm and friendly rapport.5:45–8:42 · Guest teaching 2/10 Non-Consensus Investing and Securing Follow-On Capital Harry introduces a quote by Howard Marks on non-consensus investing and probes whether backing alternative technology makes follow-on financing difficult. Manu describes himself as an eHarmony for follow-on capital to help bridge pre-seed companies to traditional seed investors.8:43–13:51 · Guest teaching 3/10 Pre-Seed Risk, Check Sizes, and Valuation Sensitivity Harry brings quotes from Howard Marks and Josh Koppelman to press Manu on risk assessment, check sizes, and price sensitivity. Manu clarifies that traditional risk assessment does not apply at pre-seed and emphasizes that he walks away from over-priced deals and avoids convertible notes.13:55–18:41 · Guest teaching 2/10 Minimizing Mortality Rates and Co-Founding Companies Harry asks about VC mortality rates and how Manu balances time between struggling vs winning portfolio companies. Manu explains that treating startups like lottery tickets is unfair to founders, driving his strategy to back fewer companies and double down on support.18:44–22:21 · Guest teaching 2/10 Quickfire Round: Habits, Tech, and Recent Investments In a rapid-fire round, Harry asks Manu to name his most excited sector, to which Manu abruptly replies Absolutely none, rejecting sector-based strategies in favor of radical tech or market shifts. The rest of the exchange covers personal habits, productivity hacks, and his recent investment in Gradescope.2:07–5:44 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Defining Entrepreneurship and K9's Origin Story Harry opens the interview with a lighthearted setup asking for Manu's definition of entrepreneurship and how it shaped his early career. Manu shares an entertaining anecdote about showing up uninvited to Jack Thorne's oversubscribed class at Carnegie Mellon, establishing a warm and friendly rapport.5:45–8:42 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Non-Consensus Investing and Securing Follow-On Capital Harry introduces a quote by Howard Marks on non-consensus investing and probes whether backing alternative technology makes follow-on financing difficult. Manu describes himself as an eHarmony for follow-on capital to help bridge pre-seed companies to traditional seed investors.8:43–13:51 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Pre-Seed Risk, Check Sizes, and Valuation Sensitivity Harry brings quotes from Howard Marks and Josh Koppelman to press Manu on risk assessment, check sizes, and price sensitivity. Manu clarifies that traditional risk assessment does not apply at pre-seed and emphasizes that he walks away from over-priced deals and avoids convertible notes.13:55–18:41 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Minimizing Mortality Rates and Co-Founding Companies Harry asks about VC mortality rates and how Manu balances time between struggling vs winning portfolio companies. Manu explains that treating startups like lottery tickets is unfair to founders, driving his strategy to back fewer companies and double down on support.18:44–22:21 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Quickfire Round: Habits, Tech, and Recent Investments In a rapid-fire round, Harry asks Manu to name his most excited sector, to which Manu abruptly replies Absolutely none, rejecting sector-based strategies in favor of radical tech or market shifts. The rest of the exchange covers personal habits, productivity hacks, and his recent investment in Gradescope.2:07–5:44 · Harry pushing back 0/10 Defining Entrepreneurship and K9's Origin Story Harry opens the interview with a lighthearted setup asking for Manu's definition of entrepreneurship and how it shaped his early career. Manu shares an entertaining anecdote about showing up uninvited to Jack Thorne's oversubscribed class at Carnegie Mellon, establishing a warm and friendly rapport.5:45–8:42 · Harry pushing back 1/10 Non-Consensus Investing and Securing Follow-On Capital Harry introduces a quote by Howard Marks on non-consensus investing and probes whether backing alternative technology makes follow-on financing difficult. Manu describes himself as an eHarmony for follow-on capital to help bridge pre-seed companies to traditional seed investors.8:43–13:51 · Harry pushing back 2/10 Pre-Seed Risk, Check Sizes, and Valuation Sensitivity Harry brings quotes from Howard Marks and Josh Koppelman to press Manu on risk assessment, check sizes, and price sensitivity. Manu clarifies that traditional risk assessment does not apply at pre-seed and emphasizes that he walks away from over-priced deals and avoids convertible notes.13:55–18:41 · Harry pushing back 1/10 Minimizing Mortality Rates and Co-Founding Companies Harry asks about VC mortality rates and how Manu balances time between struggling vs winning portfolio companies. Manu explains that treating startups like lottery tickets is unfair to founders, driving his strategy to back fewer companies and double down on support.18:44–22:21 · Harry pushing back 0/10 Quickfire Round: Habits, Tech, and Recent Investments In a rapid-fire round, Harry asks Manu to name his most excited sector, to which Manu abruptly replies Absolutely none, rejecting sector-based strategies in favor of radical tech or market shifts. The rest of the exchange covers personal habits, productivity hacks, and his recent investment in Gradescope.

speaking balance: gold is Harry, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Harry 86.1% · guest 13.9%0:00 · Harry 86.1% · guest 13.9%3:00 · Harry 17.4% · guest 82.6%3:00 · Harry 17.4% · guest 82.6%6:00 · Harry 29.7% · guest 70.3%6:00 · Harry 29.7% · guest 70.3%9:00 · Harry 21.5% · guest 78.5%9:00 · Harry 21.5% · guest 78.5%12:00 · Harry 25.3% · guest 74.7%12:00 · Harry 25.3% · guest 74.7%15:00 · Harry 27.6% · guest 72.4%15:00 · Harry 27.6% · guest 72.4%18:00 · Harry 18.6% · guest 81.4%18:00 · Harry 18.6% · guest 81.4%21:00 · Harry 59.2% · guest 40.8%21:00 · Harry 59.2% · guest 40.8%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 19:24 Rejecting sector-based investing

When asked what sector he is most excited by in the quickfire round, Manu playfully rejects the premise by answering 'Absolutely none', explaining he strictly avoids sector-based strategies.

Hardest push from Harry ▶ 12:50 Pressing on valuation negotiations with founders

Harry presses Manu on whether he actively tries to advise founders on the error of their valuation expectations when a deal is priced out of line or if it is a lost cause.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 8:59 Reframing risk and coining pre-seed

Manu reframes Harry's question about risk assessment, explaining that traditional risk metrics fail at the earliest stages and recalling how he coined the term pre-seed as seed rounds ballooned.

Harry holds his own ▶ 11:19 Citing Koppelman on price sensitivity

Harry quotes Josh Koppelman on the defining role of price and demonstrates his understanding of micro-VC dynamics by probing how entry valuation alters return profiles.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicHarry as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementHarry pushing backWhy
Defining Entrepreneurship and K9's Origin Story 1100 Harry opens the interview with a lighthearted setup asking for Manu's definition of entrepreneurship and how it shaped his early career. Manu shares an entertaining anecdote about showing up uninvited to Jack Thorne's oversubscribed class at Carnegie Mellon, establishing a warm and friendly rapport.
Non-Consensus Investing and Securing Follow-On Capital 3211 Harry introduces a quote by Howard Marks on non-consensus investing and probes whether backing alternative technology makes follow-on financing difficult. Manu describes himself as an eHarmony for follow-on capital to help bridge pre-seed companies to traditional seed investors.
Pre-Seed Risk, Check Sizes, and Valuation Sensitivity 4312 Harry brings quotes from Howard Marks and Josh Koppelman to press Manu on risk assessment, check sizes, and price sensitivity. Manu clarifies that traditional risk assessment does not apply at pre-seed and emphasizes that he walks away from over-priced deals and avoids convertible notes.
Minimizing Mortality Rates and Co-Founding Companies 3201 Harry asks about VC mortality rates and how Manu balances time between struggling vs winning portfolio companies. Manu explains that treating startups like lottery tickets is unfair to founders, driving his strategy to back fewer companies and double down on support.
Quickfire Round: Habits, Tech, and Recent Investments 1220 In a rapid-fire round, Harry asks Manu to name his most excited sector, to which Manu abruptly replies Absolutely none, rejecting sector-based strategies in favor of radical tech or market shifts. The rest of the exchange covers personal habits, productivity hacks, and his recent investment in Gradescope.

Statements from this episode (13)

Assertion Supported
Kumar: Mid-2000s Sand Hill Road VCs avoided tech risk and operational backgrounds
“Most of the funds were trying to do investments that were three to four million dollars. They were not taking technology risk. A lot of the new people on Sand Hill at that time were not coming from a startup or an operating background.”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 4:26
Disclosure
Kumar: K9 Ventures' first fund was $6.25 million
“So the first fund was about six and six and a quarter million which is super tiny as venture funds go.”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 5:14
Insight
Kumar: Pattern matching fails for radically new technology and markets
“And when you have radically new technology or a radically new market, it's very hard to apply pattern matching to that to that.”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 6:34
Disclosure
Kumar: I spend most portfolio support time on follow-on financing
“And that's probably what I spend most of my time on with my existing portfolio companies.”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 8:07
Assertion Partly supported
Kumar: Coined the term pre-seed around 2013 as seed rounds grew
“I actually kind of coined the pre-seed term at one point in, I think in 2013, 2014 because I saw the seed market kind of evolving where it was becoming a two million to three million dollar round, and I was like, wait, these things are changing, and so there h…”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 9:06
Prediction Held up
Kumar: K9 invests $400k-$500k initially and up to $4M per startup
“So my sweet spot is usually around 400 to 500,000 as an initial investment. But then I will go as high as about four million dollars into each company. So I do, I'll do 400 to 500,000 into the pre-seed. I might do 750 or a million into the seed, and then anoth…”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 10:39
Disclosure
Kumar: K9 Ventures refuses to invest using convertible notes
“And I walk away from deals all day long based on price and structure, so I also don't do convertible notes.”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 12:06
Insight
Kumar: Overpricing early rounds harms startups more than extra dilution
“My advice to them is to actually go for a slightly lower valuation, because whatever valuation they take is setting the bar for their next round of financing, and it's also setting the bar for what kind of exit they can have. And so trying to optimize that, I …”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 13:22
Insight
Manu Kumar: Momentum investing comes too late for seed VCs
“Like to me, momentum investing is like by the time something has already gained momentum, at least for someone investing at my stage, it's already too late.”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 16:31
Disclosure
Kumar: I pitched Henry Ward on the original concept for eShares
“EShares is one of my portfolio companies. And in fact, it's a company that I co-founded. And in the case of that company I was talking with Henry Ward, who's, who's my co-founder in that company about his previous company that he was working on. And I just rea…”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 17:22
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2046
Kumar: K9 Ventures is operating on a 30-year horizon
“I think when I got into it with a thirty-year timeline.”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 19:13
Disclosure
Kumar: K9 Ventures shuns sector strategies for radical tech and markets
“I actually don't use a sector strategy. For me, it's really about, like, give me radically new technology and radically new market, and then let's talk about it.”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 19:37
Opinion
Kumar: Carnegie Mellon's academics are as rigorous as or superior to Stanford
“Academically, I would say that CMU is absolutely at par, and if not, maybe in some cases, more rigorous than Stanford.”
Manu Kumar May 23, 2016 ▶ 20:08
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