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Apr 20, 2015 · 18m · 20vc

20 VC 029: The Potential Upside To A Technology Bubble with TechCrunch's Brandon Lipman

Brandon Lipman · 12m spoken Harry Stebbings · 5m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

In this episode of The 20 Minute VC, host Harry Stebbings interviews ThreeDLT co-founder and TechCrunch contributor Brandon Lipman to examine whether the tech industry is experiencing a speculative bubble. Lipman explores the positive necessity of market corrections, shifting seed funding dynamics, burn rate management, and changing timelines for private valuation exits.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Harry holds 29.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Harry as informed peer 4.3 Guest teaching 3.8 Guest disagreement 2.0 Harry pushing back 3.3
05100:0010:001:01–5:32 · Harry as informed peer 4/10 Comparing Tech Bubbles to Florida Forest Fires Harry introduces Brandon's article comparing tech bubbles to forest fires and enriches the discussion by quoting Chris Sacca about purging non-passionate founders. Brandon agrees with Harry's context and expands on learning from history.5:33–8:08 · Harry as informed peer 3/10 Evolving Seed and Series Funding Dynamics Harry asks about a drop in seed deals, prompting Brandon to reframe the stat by clarifying that total seed funding volume shifted into larger check sizes rather than fewer companies overall.8:09–11:25 · Harry as informed peer 6/10 VC Strategy, Value Add, and Burn Rate Debates Harry demonstrates strong background prep by directly challenging Brandon's view on burn rates using Scott Nolan's argument that high burn accelerates progress. Brandon politely stands his ground on capital efficiency.11:25–15:55 · Harry as informed peer 4/10 Resilient Sectors and the Private vs. Public IPO Shift Harry explores sector resilience and delayed IPOs, where Brandon corrects Harry's estimate on Uber's fundraising figures and provides detailed market data comparing public and private valuations.1:01–5:32 · Guest teaching 2/10 Comparing Tech Bubbles to Florida Forest Fires Harry introduces Brandon's article comparing tech bubbles to forest fires and enriches the discussion by quoting Chris Sacca about purging non-passionate founders. Brandon agrees with Harry's context and expands on learning from history.5:33–8:08 · Guest teaching 5/10 Evolving Seed and Series Funding Dynamics Harry asks about a drop in seed deals, prompting Brandon to reframe the stat by clarifying that total seed funding volume shifted into larger check sizes rather than fewer companies overall.8:09–11:25 · Guest teaching 3/10 VC Strategy, Value Add, and Burn Rate Debates Harry demonstrates strong background prep by directly challenging Brandon's view on burn rates using Scott Nolan's argument that high burn accelerates progress. Brandon politely stands his ground on capital efficiency.11:25–15:55 · Guest teaching 5/10 Resilient Sectors and the Private vs. Public IPO Shift Harry explores sector resilience and delayed IPOs, where Brandon corrects Harry's estimate on Uber's fundraising figures and provides detailed market data comparing public and private valuations.1:01–5:32 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Comparing Tech Bubbles to Florida Forest Fires Harry introduces Brandon's article comparing tech bubbles to forest fires and enriches the discussion by quoting Chris Sacca about purging non-passionate founders. Brandon agrees with Harry's context and expands on learning from history.5:33–8:08 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Evolving Seed and Series Funding Dynamics Harry asks about a drop in seed deals, prompting Brandon to reframe the stat by clarifying that total seed funding volume shifted into larger check sizes rather than fewer companies overall.8:09–11:25 · Guest disagreement 3/10 VC Strategy, Value Add, and Burn Rate Debates Harry demonstrates strong background prep by directly challenging Brandon's view on burn rates using Scott Nolan's argument that high burn accelerates progress. Brandon politely stands his ground on capital efficiency.11:25–15:55 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Resilient Sectors and the Private vs. Public IPO Shift Harry explores sector resilience and delayed IPOs, where Brandon corrects Harry's estimate on Uber's fundraising figures and provides detailed market data comparing public and private valuations.1:01–5:32 · Harry pushing back 2/10 Comparing Tech Bubbles to Florida Forest Fires Harry introduces Brandon's article comparing tech bubbles to forest fires and enriches the discussion by quoting Chris Sacca about purging non-passionate founders. Brandon agrees with Harry's context and expands on learning from history.5:33–8:08 · Harry pushing back 2/10 Evolving Seed and Series Funding Dynamics Harry asks about a drop in seed deals, prompting Brandon to reframe the stat by clarifying that total seed funding volume shifted into larger check sizes rather than fewer companies overall.8:09–11:25 · Harry pushing back 6/10 VC Strategy, Value Add, and Burn Rate Debates Harry demonstrates strong background prep by directly challenging Brandon's view on burn rates using Scott Nolan's argument that high burn accelerates progress. Brandon politely stands his ground on capital efficiency.11:25–15:55 · Harry pushing back 3/10 Resilient Sectors and the Private vs. Public IPO Shift Harry explores sector resilience and delayed IPOs, where Brandon corrects Harry's estimate on Uber's fundraising figures and provides detailed market data comparing public and private valuations.

speaking balance: gold is Harry, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Harry 45.2% · guest 54.8%0:00 · Harry 45.2% · guest 54.8%3:00 · Harry 33.5% · guest 66.5%3:00 · Harry 33.5% · guest 66.5%6:00 · Harry 24.1% · guest 75.9%6:00 · Harry 24.1% · guest 75.9%9:00 · Harry 24.2% · guest 75.8%9:00 · Harry 24.2% · guest 75.8%12:00 · Harry 18.8% · guest 81.2%12:00 · Harry 18.8% · guest 81.2%15:00 · Harry 22.4% · guest 77.6%15:00 · Harry 22.4% · guest 77.6%18:00 · Harry 58.3% · guest 41.7%18:00 · Harry 58.3% · guest 41.7%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 10:30 Brandon rejects Scott Nolan's premise on burn rates

Brandon respectfully dissents from Founders Fund partner Scott Nolan, holding his ground that high burn rates reflect capital inefficiency despite Nolan's high standing.

 Hardest push from Harry ▶ 10:03 Harry confronts Brandon with Scott Nolan's counter-thesis

Harry refuses to accept Brandon's view on burn rates at face value, confronting him with a direct counterargument from Scott Nolan that burn rates spur faster innovation.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 13:38 Brandon corrects Uber stats and explains private vs public divergence

When Harry understates Uber's fundraising figures, Brandon corrects the data and provides a detailed breakdown comparing Uber, Lyft, Etsy, and Slack valuations.

 Harry holds his own ▶ 2:54 Harry adds depth by citing Chris Sacca on bubble benefits

Harry shows strong industry context by introducing Chris Sacca's quote on flushing out opportunistic founders, reinforcing and extending Brandon's forest fire metaphor.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicHarry as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementHarry pushing backWhy
Comparing Tech Bubbles to Florida Forest Fires 4212 Harry introduces Brandon's article comparing tech bubbles to forest fires and enriches the discussion by quoting Chris Sacca about purging non-passionate founders. Brandon agrees with Harry's context and expands on learning from history.
Evolving Seed and Series Funding Dynamics 3522 Harry asks about a drop in seed deals, prompting Brandon to reframe the stat by clarifying that total seed funding volume shifted into larger check sizes rather than fewer companies overall.
VC Strategy, Value Add, and Burn Rate Debates 6336 Harry demonstrates strong background prep by directly challenging Brandon's view on burn rates using Scott Nolan's argument that high burn accelerates progress. Brandon politely stands his ground on capital efficiency.
Resilient Sectors and the Private vs. Public IPO Shift 4523 Harry explores sector resilience and delayed IPOs, where Brandon corrects Harry's estimate on Uber's fundraising figures and provides detailed market data comparing public and private valuations.

Statements from this episode (9)

Insight
Lipman: Tech market bubbles yield long-term benefits and valuable lessons
“A lot of people are looking at it through a negative lens, but there are lots of benefits to a potential bubble, and I think that in the long-term perspective, if we look from 2000 to now, I think that the 2000 bubble, or the, you know, dot-com bubble, has giv…”
Brandon Lipman Apr 20, 2015 ▶ 3:37
Assertion Supported
Lipman: Seed round volume is dropping while average round sizes grow
“I think it's, the amount of seed seed rounds are decreasing, but the amount of seed funding in the rounds themselves is increasing.”
Brandon Lipman Apr 20, 2015 ▶ 5:52
Assertion Partly supported
Lipman: Series B funding round counts have increased by 49 percent
“I look at B rounds as well, you know, they're increasing. By 49%”
Brandon Lipman Apr 20, 2015 ▶ 7:20
Insight
Lipman: VCs are reducing deal volume to provide better portfolio support
“And I think that investors are starting to recognize that. And that's why they might be also scaling back on the number of deals they're making, so they can make sure they're adding enough value to the companies that are in their portfolios.”
Brandon Lipman Apr 20, 2015 ▶ 9:03
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lipman: SaaS companies will thrive through market downturns on steady enterprise demand
“I think SaaS companies, I see them progressing through a bubble I think that companies that are the large companies that get enough funding, they'll continue to need the same amount of software that they need now, and I think that's going to continue to grow, …”
Brandon Lipman Apr 20, 2015 ▶ 12:12
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lipman: Consumer tech startups face high bubble risk due to premature scaling
“I see consumer tech as an area where, I mean, from a service level, I see there being a potential fluctuation or a difficulty because a lot of these consumer tech startups are starting or making assumptions too early and potentially not having the product mark…”
Brandon Lipman Apr 20, 2015 ▶ 12:44
Assertion Partly supported
Lipman: Uber raised $4.9B at $41B valuation versus Lyft's $862M at $2B
“I think the last time I looked, when I was online here Uber raised 4.9 billion at a forty one billion dollar valuation. Better lift. That's in total. And, Lyft has raised, you know, 862 and a half million at two billion dollar valuation.”
Brandon Lipman Apr 20, 2015 ▶ 13:51
Assertion Supported
Lipman: Two-year-old Slack valued at $2.8B compared to Etsy's $3.5B IPO
“And when you look at, like, the recent IPO this week of Etsy you know, they're a ten-year-old company, and Slack, You know, is a, you know, two-year-old company, and they, Slack is valued at a two-point-eight billion dollar valuation, where Etsy is, you know, …”
Brandon Lipman Apr 20, 2015 ▶ 14:35
Opinion
Lipman: Periscope holds a significant growth advantage over Meerkat
“I think Periscope, they have a advantage in regards to growth with, you know, being able to piggyback off of Twitter and using, having such a strong relationship with them, and now actually being acquired by them, but I think that they both can win, but at thi…”
Brandon Lipman Apr 20, 2015 ▶ 16:22
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