venture capital returns

“Yeah, so I think the whole you know, when you think about what has caused, you know, the bubbles, the big peaks in venture capital returns are a hundred percent correlated with shifts in platform technology.”

“At the end of the day, the way to make the best returns is to invest in one company that does incredibly well. Everything else is basically pulling you down. That's clearly the correct answer if you're Only focused on returns.”

“There's no capital scarcity, by the way, but there could be, and this will take longer to play out, a scarcity of returns because of all that capital that's come in.”

“So kind of the company gets you to a base case, but the macros are what allows you to break out and really see tail. Because if you don't have those macros, it's kind of hard to break out and have, you know, a 10, 15, 20, 30 time your money kind of investment.”

“These smaller exits are not necessarily gonna get you anything. Even, even like a three, five X return, it doesn't, unfortunately, it just doesn't move the needle that much when you have a hundred X return out there.”

“We are increasingly back to an era where the returns are going to be created through outsized and better ideas and hypotheses versus then consensus.”

“The best investors will continue generating best returns, but I think the median is probably gonna come down over time.”

“At the macro level, what's happening here is the fewer, bigger winners, comma, and it's what I always say to people, it's fewer, comma, bigger, comma, winners, right? You're seeing less winners, there's less IPOs, but because they've grown so much longer, they…”

“That's partly why this wave I think will be highly damaging to venture returns because the employee stock based comp dilution is going to be so significant and so much more significant than in prior generations of venture.”

“At the end of the day, our job is to invest in companies that become really successful, not to be like super smart about analyzing them. And so I think sometimes the instinct to criticize a gross margin can get in the way of money making.”