confirmation bias
2 statements across 1 episodes · 0 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Nov 4, 2022 by Michael Mauboussin · across every show →
Everything said about confirmation bias, oldest first
Nov 4, 2022
Mauboussin: Overprecision and confirmation bias are the biggest investment decision pitfalls
“Two big sources of bias, I think are one is overconfidence. And when you look at overconfidence, usually the sub-component of oral confidence of the problem is over precision, which is you start to think you know what the world is going to be rather than bette…”
Nov 4, 2022
Mauboussin: Thesis-driven investors must pre-define probabilistic signposts to prevent bad deals
“If you do have a thesis, and by the way, I'm not adverse to that, but if you have a thesis, you should be thinking about so-called signposts, which is to say, if this thesis is correct, here are the things that we should see happen as we travel down this road,…”