Arvind Narayanan

16 statements across 1 episodes · 2 bullish · 10 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Aug 28, 2024 by Arvind Narayanan · said 3 times in 1 episodes since 2024 · across every show →

On the record as a speaker too: Arvind Narayanan's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.

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brought up most by Harry Stebbings (3)

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Everything said about Arvind Narayanan, oldest first

Aug 28, 2024 neutral
Insight
Narayanan: Misinformation is a social media distribution problem, not an AI generation problem
“To the extent it's a technology problem, it's more of a social media problem, really, than an AI problem, because the hard part of misinformation is not generating it, it's distributing it to people and persuading them, and social media is often the medium for…”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 33:30 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 negative
Opinion
Narayanan: LLMs are an off-ramp to superintelligence requiring new breakthroughs
“I have to say, I really like Jan LeCun's perspectives on various things, including his view that LLMs Our quote unquote off-ramp to super intelligence that, you know, in other words, we need a lot more scientific breakthroughs, as well as tamping down the fear…”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 49:06 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Narayanan: YouTube transcript text is an order of magnitude smaller than current AI training sets
“A hundred and fifty billion hours of video sounds, you know, really impressive. But when you put that video through a speech recognizer and actually extracts the text tokens out of it and deduplicated and so forth, it's actually not that much. It's an order of…”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 6:31 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 bearish
Insight
Narayanan: Misinformation affirms existing beliefs rather than changing them
“In a way, I think misinformation is more of a symptom than a cause. I think, you know, misinformation slots into and affirms people's existing beliefs as opposed to changing their beliefs. And I think the impact on AI here, again, has been tremendously exagger…”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 31:46 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Narayanan: AI proliferation will force people onto trusted news sources
“That's right. So that, that actually is our prediction. People we predict are going to be forced to rely much more on getting their news from trusted sources.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 31:08 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Narayanan: Nvidia is trying aggressively to migrate from hardware to services
“I do find it interesting that NVIDIA itself Has been trying to migrate really, really hard out of hardware into becoming a services company.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 47:47 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024
Insight
Narayanan: Enterprise AI adoption is bottlenecked by cost, not capability
“My view is that in a lot of cases, the adoption of these models is not bottlenecked by capability. If these models were actually deployed today to do all the tasks that they're capable of, it would truly be a striking economic transformation. The bottlenecks a…”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 12:22 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 positive
Insight
Narayanan: AI training data quality matters far more than quantity
“What we've learned in the last two years is that the quality of data matters a lot more than the quantity of data.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 9:09 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Narayanan: Skeptical GPT-5 will yield a leap comparable to GPT-4
“Are we going to see a GPT-V that's as big a leap over GPT-V as GPT-V was over GPT-V? I'm frankly skeptical.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 5:44 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 negative
Opinion
Narayanan: Do not trust overconfident AGI predictions from tech CEOs
“I wouldn't put too much stock into these overconfident predictions from CEOs.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 21:54 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2034
Narayanan: AI model scaling cycles are ending
“We're not gonna have too many more cycles, possibly zero more cycles, of a model that's almost an order of magnitude bigger in terms of the number of parameters than what came before, and thereby more powerful.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 0:00 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Narayanan: AI bots influencing elections with misinformation is not a real danger
“So people have been worried, for instance, about bots creating misinformation with AI and influence in elections and that sort of thing. We're very, very skeptical that that's going to be a real danger.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 29:51 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Narayanan: AI models have exhausted accessible training data
“These models are already trained on essentially all of the data that companies can get their hands on.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 5:06 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Narayanan: Lower AI inference costs will increase total enterprise AI spend
“And I predict that we're going to see the same thing with models when models get cheaper. They're put into a lot more things, and so the total amount that companies are spending on inference is actually going to increase.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 14:02 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Narayanan: Recursive AI scaling using synthetic data will not work
“And the other way to look at synthetic data is, okay, you take one trillion tokens, you train a model on it, and then you output 10 trillion tokens, so you get to the next bigger model, and then you use that to output a hundred trillion tokens. You know, I'll …”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 8:55 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 negative
Opinion
Narayanan: Public right to AI knowledge overrides private commercial interests
“I don't think I would be a good CEO, but if there were one thing I could change about OpenAI, I think I think the need for the public to know what is going on with AI development overrides the you know, commercial interests of any company, so I think there nee…”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 46:50 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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