The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Armstrong: Bitcoin's Lightning Network Never Really Took Off
“The lightning network was a optimization layer on top of Bitcoin, but it never really took off.”
Armstrong: Financial system should not rely on fractional reserve banking foundation
“In my view, we should have a financial system that does not have fractional reserve as the foundation because it's not a secure foundation to build on, right?”
Armstrong: Global collaboration to pause AI is unrealistic
“So it's hard for me to imagine a realistic scenario where the world collaborates to pause AI.”
Armstrong: Bitcoin Succeeded as Store of Value, Not Medium of Exchange
“I think it's fair to say at this point that Bitcoin has succeeded as a store of value, and I don't think it has become a medium of exchange.”
Armstrong: AI coding harnesses like Anthropic's are not defensible
“I mean, the coding harnesses to me don't feel like that defensible. You know, they're, that you could, some of them have actually been leaked on the open source. I mean, you could actually like, I think software is basically free, so you could recreate a codin…”
Armstrong: India's 30% crypto tax is among world's most punitive
“I, and I will say, yeah, the 30% tax on trading in India is quite punitive. I think that's actually one of the most punitive regimes anywhere in the world that we operate.”
Armstrong: Bitcoin white paper is among most important financial documents
“And I actually would encourage anybody to go read the Bitcoin white paper. It's a little bit hard to understand the first time, but I think it's worth trying to read. And it's a, one of the most important documents, you know, written in financial history, righ…”
Armstrong: SpaceX holds the best moat of all time in space transit
“I think, like, you know, obviously SpaceX is getting a lot of attention right now that just has a natural moat. Like the best moat of all time would be like, how do you get from Earth to space, you know? And if they're doing 90% of that, that's powerful.”