why aren't all 855 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 9 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Stagliano: Sandbox Gives Creators 85% While Meta Takes 85%
“If you go to Sandbox and you create your own collection, you get 85% of the sales. Sandbox will just take a fee. In meta, they will take 85% and the creator will take 15%.”
Assertion Supported
Magow: MakeMyTrip holds about 30% share of Indian domestic flights
“Like for our total market share for domestic air segments will be about 30%. And they might be single digit, high single digit.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Rajesh Magow: MakeMyTrip gets 75% of its user traffic directly, bypassing Google
“Like today also, we have 75% of the traffic coming directly on us, and that comes in with the trust built over a period of time on the brand.”
Assertion Supported
Chhatwal: Thailand's consumption taxes are far lower than India's GST
“So, specific to Thailand, they are far lower in, you know, in the GST equivalent of their country.”
Assertion Supported
Damani: No five-star hotels exist in the Bhimtal and Mukteshwar belt
“Ah, if you look at the entire Bheemtal belt and Mukteswar, you will not find any five-star hotel in that area.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Damani: Vacation villas swing from negative to positive 2-3 lakhs monthly P&L
“So at the end of the day, you have a negative PNL of roughly one to two lakhs per month. That becomes a positive PNL of two to three lakhs per month.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chhatwal: IHCL lowered asset-heavy portfolio share to 30%
“We were 70, more than 70% asset heavy. Today, because we increased our footprint so much, and we had exponential growth, our asset heavy component is 30%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chhatwal: Taj Mahal Palace is approaching ₹1,000 crore revenue
“Taj Mahal Palace is marching ahead towards 1000.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gupta: Treebo audits hotels weekly, unlike upscale franchisors auditing biannually
“And what they do, for example, is that their people would audit the hotel twice a year. Our teams audit the hotel every week.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Decathlon supply problems caused trekking shoe shortages in India
“In the last few years, we ran into huge trouble just getting trekking shoes for our country because Decathlon ran into a problem. There is no other place that we go to get trekking shoes.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kamath: Airport handling and landing charges in Mumbai increased 200%
“In Bombay it's gone up 200%.”
Assertion Supported
Tang: Modern LFP EVs can reach up to 1,000 km in range
“So the RFP can, you can drive a RFP driving car to up to 101,000 kilometers long range.”
Assertion Supported
Klein: China's industrial production recovered from COVID far faster than domestic consumption
“The productive side of the economy in terms of, you know, the factories being able to produce more and sell things recovered from COVID faster and better than the domestic Demand consuming side. Part of that reflects, as the name was saying, the consequences o…”
Assertion Supported
Zhu: US dollar took nearly a century to replace pound sterling
“The U S economy surpassed that of UK in around the But then U.S. Dollar did not totally replace starting until like almost a hundred years later. So it's a very long and gradual process and full of changes, apps announced.”
Assertion Partly supported
Klein: Historical reserve currency regimes were multi-polar, not single monopolies
“Even in the period where people talk about, like, sterling as the reserve currency, it was notable insofar as, say, like, Japan had most of its foreign reserves in Sterling assets, like the early 1900. But there were other large blocks, and arguably this is a …”
Assertion Supported
Ning Zhu: Land Sales Are Biggest Revenue Source for Chinese Local Governments
“Land sales have become the biggest contribution to fiscal revenues to many local governments in China.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Four billion people globally are unbrokered without equity access
“So there's something like four billion people in the world today who are unbrokered. They don't have any ability to buy equities.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2027
Armstrong: Stablecoins enable sub-second, sub-cent payments impossible with credit cards
“You can send a payment anywhere in the world in under one second and one cent US. So we're seeing a lot of agentic commerce send small transactions, even a couple cents US, to, you know, gather, read this research paper, or get through this paywall, and or jus…”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Proof-of-stake blockchains are 99.9% more energy efficient than proof-of-work
“Ethereum and other blockchains use a new system called proof of stake, which is actually 99.9% more energy efficient.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Bitcoin ETFs Were Fastest-Growing ETFs in Recent Years
“You might be aware that recently they've become Bitcoin ETFs as well, which have become very popular. I think they were like the fastest growing ETFs of the last few years.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: India ranks number one globally by crypto user count
“Actually by most reports, India, believe it or not, is the number one crypto country in the world by a number of people who use it.”
Assertion Partly supported
Armstrong: Stablecoin volume grows 3x to 4x annually uncorrelated with trading
“Now we're seeing stable coins just grow like crazy, and it's totally uncorrelated with, so even if the trading markets are down stable coins are growing like three or three or four X per year.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Base is the most popular Layer 2 on Ethereum
“It's the most popular layer two on top of Ethereum now, and it's, people are using it for all kinds of apps to be built, and payment stable coins, and trading, and AI agents, like agentic commerce is happening on there.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Christodoulides: No country escapes the impact of Gulf instability
“Even with this crisis in, in, in the Gulf, we see the prices of, you know, for diesel oil in the United States going up. So there is no country that is not affected by the situation in the Gulf today.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Screwvala: Small and medium enterprises in India lack financing to scale big
“Small and medium scale industries don't have the kind of finance they can to think big.”
Assertion Supported
Biyani Estimates India's Affluent Consumer Segment at 30 Million Families
“I would say around, around thirty million families.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Biyani: I have created more than 120 businesses
“I've created a 120 plus businesses, and I don't think so, there is anything like Foundry, which has gone right from conceptualization, or it's not changed form, anything significant from the day we started to this day.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Juneja: 1984 Meerut pharma venture started with ₹69,000 outperformed Glaxo locally
“One time that company start, which was started with 69,000 rupees in 84, became Merit's number one company. We had written Blaxos, Cibla, any company, everybody. Every company.”
Assertion Supported
Juneja: Indian pharmaceutical companies manufacture up to 50% of US medications
“That 40, 50% price that you buy over there are manufactured here. Indian companies.”
Assertion Supported
Prasad: US drug prices drop over 95% post-patent with five competitors
“So in the U.S., the innovator price, if it's a hundred, post-patent expiry, if there are more than five players, the price falls to north of, the discount falls north of 95%.
It can be sometimes one percent, two percent of the innovator's price.”
Assertion Partly supported
Juneja: Branded generics account for 95% of all drugs sold in India
“In India, first of all you're supposed to understand that, I mean 95% products are branded generic.”
Assertion Supported
Kamath: India's fertility rate has dropped below replacement level in most states
“Soon, if we don't have kids, I think that fertility ratio has dropped below 2.1, which is the replenishment ratio. In most states, outside of Bihar and UP or something, people are not having two kids.”
Assertion Contradicted
Escobari: US VIX Is Trading at Three Times Historical Average
“The US has become a lot more volatile than it used to be. If you look at the VIX, it's at three times. The VIX is the volatility index. Three times the average.”
Assertion Supported
Escobari: US Policy Uncertainty Index Is at All-Time High
“There's another index which I look a lot, which is the policy uncertainty index. What's the level of uncertainty of the rules of the game? The US is at an all time high.”
Assertion Supported
Escobari: Half of US unicorn founders are foreign-born
“Half the unicorn founders are foreign born, but choose this country, because in this country, they believe they can be successful.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kamath: Foreign capital inflows to India slowed over the past 18 months
“Not too much foreign capital has found its way into India in the last year or year and a half.”
Assertion Contradicted
Marks: Buying Nifty 50 stocks in 1969 led to 95% losses
“And if you bought those stocks, the day I got to work in September of 69, if you held them tenaciously for five years, you lost about 95% of your money. 95%. Because for many of them, something did go wrong, and for all of them, the price was too high. The P.E…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Marks: Bruce Karsh managed $70B in distressed debt with 90%+ profits
“He's managed about 70 odd billion dollars since 1988 in that field, by far the biggest. And of his total profits and losses, well over 90% are profits, less than 10% are losses.”
Assertion Supported
Banga: HDFC originally started with an IFC investment
“Most people don't know, but HDFC originally started with an IFC investment.”
Assertion Supported
Banga: World Bank mobilized nearly $70B in private capital last year
“Last year we mobilized, Seventy billion almost private capital. Up from say, 40,000,000,002, three years ago.”
Assertion Supported
Banga: World Bank is profitable and funds its own administrative expenses
“We're basically profitable across the institution. The part of the bank that doesn't, we don't need capital injections every year or three years. We don't need money for our administrative expenses every year or three years.”
Assertion Supported
Banga: 85% to 90% of Global Jobs Are Private Sector Created
“85 to 90% of jobs in the world are created in some form or the other in the private sector or in private sector-oriented enterprises in the state-owned sector.”
Assertion Supported
Banga: 600 million people in Africa have zero electricity
“Six hundred million people in Africa don't have electricity today. And I don't mean, ah, inadequate electricity. None. Black. No electricity.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Banga: G7 and G20 discussions have shifted from climate to jobs
“Two, three years ago, rarely would I go to a meeting of large government groupings, like the G-twenty or the G-seven, where everyone was discussing jobs. They would be discussing agriculture, green technology, climate, water, trade, food, that kind of stuff. N…”
Assertion Partly supported
Kamath: India's consumer sector grows at 12-13% despite 6-7% GDP growth
“And in India, when you see the GDP number growing at six to seven percent, a really large component of that is consumer, which is growing at 12, 13%.”
Assertion Supported
Sunak: China's trade surplus is at record high relative to global GDP
“Chinese exports though, and the Chinese trade surplus is a record high as a percentage of global GDP. So all those exports are going to all these other countries. So I think there'll be increasing tension with these other countries.”
Assertion Supported
Sunak: Stanford research shows financial illiteracy widens wealth inequality
“The research from Stanford actually tells us some of these foundational skills you need to understand are inflation and compounding. They are two fundamental things that lots of people do not understand. And if they don't, that inequality will widen.”
Assertion Supported
Staniszewski: MasterClass uses ElevenLabs for interactive Gordon Ramsay AI
“Masterclass works with us where they would recreate and work with people like Gordon Ramsey to create AI. Gordon Ramsey teaches you how to cook while you cook. The top FBI negotiator, Chris Voss, it's part of the ecosystem. You can negotiate and learn negotiat…”