The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Marks: Oaktree's 40-Year Default Rate Is Roughly One-Third Market Average
“Over the last 40 years, on average, something like 3.6 or 3.7% of all high yield bonds have gone into default every year. And our default rate has been Roughly a third.”
Howard Marks: Readily Available Present Data Cannot Create Above-Average Returns
“Readily available, quantitative information about the present cannot hold the key to success. Because everybody has it. Success in investing is doing better than others. Investing is a funny field because it's really easy to be average, and it's really hard to…”
Marks: 99% of Oaktree's high-yield bonds paid full principal and interest
“I've been in high yield bonds for 48 years. And in our experience, 99% of the bonds have paid interest in principle as promised.”
Marks: Prepare portfolios for multiple middle-probability outcomes rather than maximizing single scenarios
“In investing, you can put together a portfolio rather than one that will produce maximum success. If a certain future unfolds, you can put together a portfolio Which will do fine if several, any of several futures unfold, and not too terribly if a bunch of oth…”
Marks: Bruce Karsh managed $70B in distressed debt with 90%+ profits
“He's managed about 70 odd billion dollars since 1988 in that field, by far the biggest. And of his total profits and losses, well over 90% are profits, less than 10% are losses.”
Marks: Superior Credit Investing Requires Predicting Default Probabilities Better Than Competitors
“The base, the most important fundamental skill set is predicting the probability of the fault better than other people. That's where if we don't have that, that's the necessary condition for superior performance.”
Marks: Founding Oaktree at 49 Was His First Intentional Career Decision
“When I think about my early decades, not years, decades, and I think about you know, what I did from, let's say, I would say from the beginning of, let's say high school until starting Oak Tree in, in 95. So that 35 year period, which took me up to age let's s…”