The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hays: Founders Fund's SpaceX stake will reach around $150B
“Again, it's still, like, gonna be a hundred and fifty-ish billion dollar position.”
Mehr: Golden Dome will be 7% of DoD budget in 2-3 years
“What I've heard last is it's going to be seven percent of the DoD budget in the next two, three years, right? Once it becomes programmatic.”
Love: 1 to 3 defense startups will win $100M+ contracts this year
“I just think there's so much in your money up for grabs that I think by the end of the year, and hold me to this you're gonna see one, two, three companies that will get, I mean, high hundreds of millions of dollars of in-year revenue grabbed for real producti…”
Hays: Next trillion-dollar consumer company will be in healthcare
“You can make an argument that generally the next, that the next trillion dollar consumer company will be in healthcare.”
Coogan: Tesla will finally deliver the new Roadster in 2025
“I think this is the year he's going to deliver it. It's been forever delayed, but now like everything's clear. Stocks at all time highs. Like he's got all the approvals and stuff. Like he needs a new halo car.”
Hays: Meta Stock Will Pop Higher When Layoffs Are Announced
“I would expect this to pop even harder once these layoffs are actually announced.”
Hays: ChatGPT ads will target interest graphs, not conversation content
“From what I understand, it won't be related to the content because people are going to be annoyed at that. I would expect it in the future. It is. But in the meantime, I think it'll effectively be display ads based on your interest graph, right? What they know…”
Bishop: DeepSeek will launch its next model within eight or nine days
“And so now everyone's waiting for DeepSeek's next model, which is supposed to launch on or around Lunar New Year, which is next Wednesday the 17th. So we should have some sort of a DeepSeek model in the next eight or nine days.”
Coogan: Johor to match Northern Virginia data center capacity within years
“They're like a couple years away from having the same amount of Energy capacity as Northern Virginia, where like all the major AWS hubs are.”