The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,190 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: D.C. Officials Told VCs Not to Fund AI Startups
“They said, look, AI, AI is one of these technology, AI is a technology basically that the government is going to completely control. This is not going to be a startup thing. They actually said flat out to us, don't start, don't do AI startups. Like, don't fund…”
Andreessen: Biden Officials Told VCs Not to Fund AI Startups
“They actually said flat out to us, don't start, don't do AI startups. Like, don't fund AI startups. Let's not, Something that we're going to allow to happen. They're not going to be allowed to exist. There's no point. They basically said AI is going to be a ga…”
Andreessen: Officials Warned Government May Classify Mathematics Behind AI
“They literally said, well, you know, during the Cold War, we classified entire areas of physics and took them out of the research community, and, like, entire branches of physics basically went dark and didn't proceed and that if we decide we need to, we're go…”
Bishop: CIA allegedly financed promotions for rising Chinese PLA officers
“And this was and there are, there's been certainly, I don't think it's been in the media, but I'd certainly heard that among the funders of some of these officers in years past was our America CIA, because it was a great way to push people in and, you know, ev…”
Trump: Musk Opposed Spending Bill Because EV Mandates Were Cut
“All of a sudden he had a problem, and he only developed the problem when he found out that we're going to have to cut the EV mandate, because that's billions and billions of dollars, and it really is unfair.”
Kim: AI Recursive Self-Improvement Could Arrive Within Nine Months, Massively Draining Compute
“RSI, I think, is a lot closer than people think. And if RSI actually happens in the next three, six, nine months, That's gonna soak up insane amount of compute.”
Karp: A strong US movement to nationalize AI will emerge quickly
“That nobody believes me in tech, but there's gonna be a movement in this country that gets very strong very quickly to nationalize these things.”
Thompson: China's Optimal Response to US Super-AI Dominance Is Bombing TSMC
“What happens if we get super powerful AI and China doesn't? What are they going to do? The optimal thing would be to just bomb TSMC out of existence, because suddenly that becomes optimal, even with all the costs that that does, and then what?”
Amodei: AI models will surpass human cognitive capabilities within years
“My fundamental view is that AI has been on an exponential for the last 10 years and as part of a sort of Moore's law for intelligence, and that we are now well advanced on that curve, and there are only a small number of years for AI models surpassing the cogn…”
Dana White: Meta hired young talent with $65M average compensation
“We just hired, like,
10 kids that are aged 22 to 28, the average salary is like sixty-five million dollars that these kids are making.”
Steinman: 100 foreign sabotage teams are actively operating on US soil
“No, there's absolutely foreign, foreign sabotage teams operating on U S soil. A hundred percent. My actual number is somewhere around a hundred teams. My guess is that and the question is like, you could break that down into, you know, what types anyway.”
Coxon: Whistleblowing was driven entirely by personal concerns, not third parties
“Not at all. This is entirely my own personal concerns about safety and things that I've seen personally in conversations I've had.”
Huang: AI labs will prove extremely profitable within months
“I believe within months you're going to realize that these companies are extremely profitable.”
Shkreli: Aschenbrenner shopped Anthropic stake at $1.1T valuation for liquidity
“And the rumor is over the weekend, he contacted about 10 parties to place Anthropic in an effort to shore up liquidity, selling the Anthropic stake for allegedly the offer was at a 1.1 trillion equivalent market cap which, you know, I think roughly where it's …”
Kim: $200B in Current Hyperscaler AI CapEx Will Generate Massive Free Cash Flow
“So that's why you're investing two hundred billion dollars now, and in a year or two, we're gonna see insane amounts of free cash flow.”
Kalanick Claims Uber Never Pushed Regulations to Advantage Itself
“I never did that.
Like we never did that.
We basically never ever
Proposed or pushed any rule that would be beneficial to us versus somebody else.”
Cowen: Attempts to Outlaw or Sanction Chinese Open-Source AI Will Fail
“Open source and is coming and is here, whether we like it or not. Of course, a lot of it will be from China. We should allow American competitors to proceed on an even footing, but basically the attempt to outlaw it or ban it or use sanctions against it is goi…”
Proposed Billionaire Tax Has Harmed California and Will Wreck It
“I hope the billionaire tax fails. It will wreck California. If it passes, it's already harmed California.”
Coogan: Self-driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLMs
“My latest hot take is that self-driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLM technology and that companies that take it seriously and actually prioritize it. It is not some insane insane tech breakthrough that cannot be implemented in other vehicles. It …”
Paul: Humans will live forever by transferring our minds into robots
“Yeah, we're all going to live forever. Like we're just going to like transfer our mind into some robotic body. And so I think this whole, like, health wave.”
Gerstner: Anthropic is fastest-growing company in history of capitalism
“OpenAI has not blown away their numbers. Google has not blown away their numbers. Like numbers have been good, but the fundamental driver of outperformance in terms of offtake of AI revenues has been Anthropic, which is the fastest growing company in the histo…”
Gerstner: An AI Data Center Moratorium Would Cause a US Recession
“A data center moratorium would thrust us straight into a recession and high unemployment.”
Hays: Ferrari Will Never Be Competitive in EVs
“It's basically proving that Ferrari, I don't think can ever, I don't think they'll ever be competitive in EVs.”
Gurman: All Succession Indicators Point to John Ternus as Apple CEO
“So anyways, it'll be Ternus or Sabi or someone completely out of left field. I don't think this is imminent. So we'll see what ultimately happens, but all signs are turning towards Ternus.”
Cuban: Humanoid Robot Startups Will Fail Miserably Within Ten Years
“I think everybody's making this push for humanoid robots. I think they might have a five-year lifespan and then they'll fail miserably, maybe 10.”
Cuban: Requiring Foreign Amazon Seller Bonds Would Skyrocket US Manufacturing
“And yeah, and legislatively you could fix it in a heartbeat. You got to post a bond. 25,000 dollar bond, depending on the size of the market, maybe more, and then give everybody 90 days to check it, and all of a sudden the whole industry changes, and American …”
Alex Karp says AI job loss sparks 'hang the rich' backlash
“I think the American version, if we're not careful, is not going to be the German version. I think it's going to be hang the rich. I, It's like, I think it's gonna be, not protect everybody else. It's gonna be like, look, this is too dangerous, and we're gonna…”
CEOs will slash headcount regardless of actual AI efficiency gains
“So again, it doesn't really matter whether or not a company is actually getting tremendous efficiency from AI. Every CEO is going to do this.”
Trump: Tech Companies Must Build Own Power Plants Under New Pledge
“We're telling the major tech companies that they have the obligation to provide for their own power needs. They can build their own power plants as part of their. Factory so that no one's prices will go up and in many cases prices of electricity will go down f…”
An Oculus executive secretly intercepted Luckey's invitation to ring the NYSE bell
“Back in the Oculus days, when we sold the company to Meta, one of the first things that happened was New York Stock Exchange emailed our contact info, email, and they asked if I would come and ring the bell of the New York Stock Exchange.
Sounds pretty cool, r…”
Bryan Johnson says organic products typically test worse than non-organic foods
“When we test organic, It typically performs worse than non-organic on many, many variables.”
Bryan Johnson predicts 'Don't Die' will become the world's dominant ideology
“Our primary hypothesis is as this evolves, the major shift is humans are going to want life. Like, you know, if AI takes our jobs and they take what we do and we want to find new identity, there's going to be a major shift towards don't die. And it's going to …”
Bryan Johnson predicts Blueprint's platform will exceed the FDA in value
“I think that we will exceed them in value in many core areas. Because they, you, they can take, you know, well-structured, well-funded clinical trials. But then other things like peptides that are very promising. They're not going to have the clinical work.”
Coogan: Reasoning and deep research models have basically solved LLM hallucinations
“Or they talk about hallucinated facts and LLM responses. Something that's basically been solved by deep Deep research and reasoning models”
Marszalek claims he received a $500M offer after acquiring AI.com
“And by the way right after we closed the deal, I got the approach for the, from the other side offering five, five hundred million plus, not for five hundred million for the domain.”
Thornton: Future combat assets will be too small for hypersonic missiles
“My personal belief, and this is, again, sort of a contrarian take, I think future warfighting has to be so decentralized that most of the assets used to fight wars are actually not large enough to consider taking out with a hypersonic missile.”
Coogan: AI agents will entirely replace human GitHub commits by year-end
“I would expect like 70%, and I would expect Codex to be at 30%, and no more human commits because it's working.”
Hays: Claude has lost the race to reach billions of users
“Anthropic has already lost the race to serve billions of people, right? I don't think that they're, when you look at Gemini's sort of traction, OpenAI's, ChatGPT traction, like it seems like the race to get to Three billion monthly actives is kind of over. I d…”
Steinberger: Users will stop subscribing to SaaS startups in favor of bespoke agent software
“You don't subscribe to random startups anymore that, that build like this common subset of what you need. You just have your own hyper-personalized software that solves exactly your problem. And it's also free.”
Ben Affleck doubts AI will ever generate whole movies or meaningful writing
“I actually don't think it's very likely that it can, it's going to be able to write anything meaningful, or, and in particular, That it's going to be making movies like from whole cloth, like Tilly Norwood, like that's bullshit. I don't think that's going to h…”
Hayes: David Solomon Was Told to Shut Down Marcus or Resign
“DJ D Sol was told to shut down Marcus and Consumer, or get out of the job. So he cut all of Marcus except for savings.”
Baker: Space data centers will be the world's most important development
“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world in the next Three to four years is data centers in space.”
Baker: Cooling space data centers is virtually free via dark-side radiators
“In space, cooling is free. You just put a radiator on the dark side of the satellite, and it's as close to absolute zero as you can get. So all that goes away, and that is a vast amount of cost.”
Sam Altman predicts US government becomes insurer of last resort for AI
“At some level, when something gets sufficiently huge, whether or not they are on paper, the federal government is kind of the insurer of last resort. As we've seen in various financial crises and insurance companies screwing things up. So, I guess, given the m…”
Gurman: Anthropic demanded $1B+ in year one to power Siri
“Anthropic wanted multiples of billions. I believe starting in a billion in year one and doubling every year thereafter, at least for the next three years.”
Cohen predicts computers and AI will go after humans soon
“At some point, the computers are going after the humans, and I don't think it's that far away.”