The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Feldmann: Drill rig manufacturers have half-hearted autonomy efforts
“We tried that with a couple of manufacturers. They were incredibly slow and all the manufacturers, they sort of have their own half-hearted efforts on autonomy. And so they didn't seem particularly eager to partner up to partner with us. And so almost out of n…”
Feldmann: US has no other rare earth deposits ready for production
“There are no other decent rare earths deposits in the United States that we can just spin up production at.”
Feldmann: Unaware of Chamath rare earth projects beyond MP Materials
“I haven't heard anything about Chamath's involvement in any rare earth project beyond he helps back camping materials five or so years ago. I haven't heard anything. Maybe he does. I hope he does. That would be great. There was some massive rare earths mine th…”
Feldmann: Canada attracts much more mining capital than the US
“Canada has a lot more capital flowing into mining than the United States does today.”
Feldmann: Mining firms avoid new tech due to decade-long capex cycles
“Building a mine is incredibly capex intensive and you're basically making a bet on technology early and then utilizing that equipment or software system for a decade plus. And so these companies are risk averse. I don't want to bet, bet the farm on a new, new …”
Feldmann: Durin operates as a contractor to bypass tech sales friction
“Where I think we come in there's a few other companies with a similar model is as a contractor. So we're just replacing a separate service provider and any sort of innovation that we're creating is done internally. So we are more efficient, safer, And we're co…”
Feldmann: Drilling out a mineral deposit costs $100 million
“In order to find that on a deposit, you gotta spend a hundred million dollars to drill out.”
Feldmann: The mining industry is in a severe workforce crisis
“We are in a workforce crisis in the mining industry right now. I heard someone say, oh, I like that. We don't have a, I don't have an autonomy problem in the mining industry, but labor problem. We just don't have enough people.”
Feldmann: Very few mining companies care about or build cool brands
“There are very few companies in the mining industry that really care about I think I would care about the brand. There are very few that are particularly good about creating a cool brand.”
Feldmann: Autonomous drilling rigs will still need on-site personnel for five years
“We're never gonna get to a point where you don't need at least someone on site, at least not over the next five years, because you need a flat surface to drill on.”
Feldmann: Junior miners go public early on TSXV, ASX to fund drilling
“Many of these companies go public extremely early on, on the TSXV or the ASX, and they raise capital and spend most of that capital on drilling to actually collect more data.”
Feldmann: Global mining is a $2T to $3T market
“And like mining overall is a two to three trillion dollar industry, kind of, yeah, overall market size.”
Feldmann: MP Materials produces about 15% of global rare earth supply
“MP produces about 15% of the global rare earth supply.”
Feldmann: Traditional drilling of a 1,000-foot hole takes 10 days
“So a good shift is about 50 feet in a day. And so 12 hours, 50 feet, a thousand foot hole, 20 shifts, 10 days.”
Feldmann: Traditional core drilling costs approximately $100 per foot
“And you're looking at about a hundred dollars a foot.”
Feldmann: Drill holes deviate 1-2 degrees per hundred meters, risking target misses
“It might deviate a degree or two every hundred meters. And if you're trying to hit a 50 foot wide target, 500 feet underground It's, you might miss. And so making sure you know exactly where the tip of the drill is at all times is paramount.”
Feldmann: Abandoning drill steel in a borehole costs at least $10k–$20k
“You lose some steel in the ground. Oh, well, you're out, 10, 20 grand at least.”
Feldmann: Durin aims to build thousands of automated drill rigs by 2031
“We are we're teaching SpaceXers how to drill and drillers how to participate in a high functional, high functioning engineering organization. And so I think you gotta do both. If you're trying to build a large organization and manufacture thousands of these ri…”