why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Langtry Predicts Magnetic Fusion Will Achieve Net Energy By 2029
“There's a chance that one or multiple magnetic confinement fusion companies are going to cross Q greater than one during this administration.”
Assertion Supported
Langtry: Texas and Utah are suing the NRC over SMR regulation
“Texas and Utah that are suing the NRC to try and get regulatory control over small modular reactors.”
Opinion
Langtry: Fission will scale to gigawatts while fusion dominates kilowatt-to-megawatt range
“I think my personal belief is that fission is going to go bigger, like hundreds of megawatts to gigawatts, and fusion is going to be really great from the kilowatts to a few megawatts.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Langtry: Fusion power will be ideal for defense autonomous vehicles
“Fusion is going to be really great for mobility and stuff. So like autonomous vehicles, fusion powered, like an Android dive XL or something like that. Like, I think that's going to be a really great application for fusion in defensive space.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Langtry: Avalanche Fusion's Lab Reactor Has a 12cm Plasma Core
“The fusion machines we're building in our lab today are about 12 centimeters in diameter. That's the plasma core.”
Disclosure
Avalanche Fusion Announces The Fusion Works Test Facility in Eastern Washington
“The announcement that we're doing today is we're announcing our new test facility, which is going to be in Eastern Washington in the Tri-Cities area called the Fusion Works. And so what the Fusion Works is, is it's basically a facility where you can come test …”
Assertion Contradicted
Langtry: NRC mandates incident report for 10 unaccounted curies of tritium
“The NRC has this rule that if you can't account for 10 curies of tritium in your system, You have, like, 30 days to report it as an incident to the NRC that you've, like, lost 10 curies of tritium.”
Insight
Langtry: Oversized rockets bottleneck casting suppliers and stretch iteration to nine months
“If your rocket is too big, all of a sudden, there's only, like, three suppliers in the whole country where you can get castings made, and now you're at a nine-month, every iteration takes nine months, right? And it's just, it's too slow.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Langtry: Avalanche has achieved one-week idea-to-test hardware cycles
“We said at the beginning of Avalanche that we want a physicist to be able to go from, like, I have an idea, to testing it in a week, and we've actually achieved that a couple times. Like, someone had an idea on Monday, they worked with the mechanical team to d…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Langtry: Fusion reactors will likely deploy in 1-to-5 megawatt shipping containers
“The practical one is they're probably gonna be containerized, and you're probably gonna just be shipping containers all over the place, like, powering a neighborhood, you know, that's, like, probably what's gonna happen. Everyone wants this containerized one t…”
Assertion Supported
Langtry: Hermeus is opening its hypersonic test facility to the DoD
“And so the Hermia's announcement, I think it was a couple of weeks ago now, was basically they are opening up their test facility to the rest of the DoD because there's a shortage of hypersonics testing.”
Assertion Supported
Langtry: Standard glowing exit signs contain roughly 25 curies of tritium
“And to give you an idea of how small that is, an exit sign has, like, 25 curies of tritium.”
Assertion Supported
Langtry: Fusion reactors are regulated like particle accelerators by agreement states
“So right now there was a decision about a year ago that
fusion machines are going to be licensed like particle accelerators and specifically on the radioactive materials they produce.
And so what that does is that pushes the regulator you work with to the s…”
Assertion Supported
Langtry: US universities operate TRIGA nuclear reactors run by licensed undergrads
“They're all over the country. Oregon State U has one. I've been there, like I stood on top and like looked down at like the fission. Washington State. WSU has one. Yeah. Last question for me. They're called trigger reactors. So they're used basically for nucle…”
Assertion Supported
Langtry: Fusion reactors require deep vacuum, preventing runaway reactions
“No, it's a vacuum chamber, right? And it needs to have very, very deep vacuum to maintain the plasma and do the fusion.”