The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 44 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: D.C. AI Meetings Forced Decision to Endorse Trump
“In D.C. In May where we talked to them about this, and the meetings were absolutely horrifying, and we came out basically deciding we had to endorse Trump.”
Andreessen: D.C. Officials Told VCs Not to Fund AI Startups
“They said, look, AI, AI is one of these technology, AI is a technology basically that the government is going to completely control. This is not going to be a startup thing. They actually said flat out to us, don't start, don't do AI startups. Like, don't fund…”
Andreessen: Biden Officials Told VCs Not to Fund AI Startups
“They actually said flat out to us, don't start, don't do AI startups. Like, don't fund AI startups. Let's not, Something that we're going to allow to happen. They're not going to be allowed to exist. There's no point. They basically said AI is going to be a ga…”
Andreessen: Officials Warned Government May Classify Mathematics Behind AI
“They literally said, well, you know, during the Cold War, we classified entire areas of physics and took them out of the research community, and, like, entire branches of physics basically went dark and didn't proceed and that if we decide we need to, we're go…”
Andreessen: Horrifying White House Meetings Drove Trump Endorsement
“In D.C. In May where we talked to them about this, and the meetings were absolutely horrifying, and we came out basically deciding we had to endorse Trump.”
Andreessen: Chinese Open-Source AI Releases Are Net Positive for the World
“I think it's been net positive for the world that China has been so enthusiastic about open source AI coming out of China which has been great.”
Andreessen: US AI Models Embed Constraints From a Specific Demographic
“I can tell you, the American models have all kinds of constraints also. Right, implemented, you know, usually by a very specific kind of person in a very specific location in the US.”
Andreessen: Training AI Is Legally Distinct From Copying
“The counter argument to that, which, you know, which we believe is, well, it's not copying, right? There's a distinction between training and copying, just like in the real world, there's a distinction between reading a book and copying the book, you know, as …”
Andreessen: Regulatory Victory Laps Over Blocked Mergers Exhibit Survivorship Bias
“I mean, it's kind of taking a victory lap was very disconcerting. And for exactly the reason you said, which is survivorship bias. Right. Which is you pick the one that worked out and then, you know, it's the airplane, the red dots, the airplane, you know, you…”
Andreessen: Google could have built a GPT-4-level ChatGPT by 2019
“Google developed the transformer in 2017. And then they basically let it sit on the shelf, right? Cause it was a research project. They didn't productize it. They were very worried about, you know, from people I've talked to, they were very worried about the, …”
Andreessen: Tech products become obsolete the moment they achieve perfection
“I think technology products become obsolete at the precise moment they become perfect. And what I mean by perfect basically is like, yeah, it's like the perfect idealized complete product. Like it does everything you could possibly ever imagine, everything a c…”
Andreessen: AI training data disputes must be solved by Congress
“In the case of training data, I think that there, I mean, there's a bunch of these copyright, you know, kind of lawsuits happening right now. There's, you know, the big New York Times opening, I won, and there's, you know, been a bunch of others. I think in th…”
Andreessen: Supreme Court will decide if AI chats get Fourth Amendment protection
“On the on the privacy thing. I think that, that one feels like it's a Supreme court thing. To me, it feels like that's the kind of issues that the Supreme court and the, in other words, like whether, for example, your Transcripts are considered your property a…”
Andreessen: Google Could Have Built a GPT-4 Level Chatbot by 2019
“I talked to somebody senior who was there at the time and I asked them, you know, when could you have had chat GPT with GPT four level output if you had just gotten, you know, gone, gone flat out starting in 2017. And they said by 2019.”
Andreessen: Copying Apple's Last-Mover Strategy Has Massive Survivorship Bias
“And I guess, yeah, what I would say is like, look, that clearly works if you're Apple, right? Yeah. And so it clearly works if you're Apple. But I would say there's a fine line between that strategy and just, and simply becoming obsolete, right? And so the pro…”
Andreessen Predicts Some Version of an AI Pin Will Succeed
“I think some form of AI pin is going to work.”
Andreessen: Tech Products Become Obsolete the Moment They Become Perfected
“One of the things I've observed over the years is I think technology products become obsolete at the precise moment they become perfect. And what I mean by perfect basically is like, yeah, it's like the perfect idealized complete product. Like it does everythi…”
Andreessen: US Is Past the Risk of Outlawing Open-Source AI
“I think, you know, we're basically through that at this point. We're just going to say, we're through that in the US. You know, we'll, we'll see about the rest of the world.”
Andreessen: Open-Source AI Lags Proprietary Models by About Six Months
“Right now, you know, which I think what you would say is it kind of lags the leading edge proprietary implementations by, you know, six months or something like that.”
Andreessen: Emulating Apple's last-mover strategy suffers from survivorship bias
“I think there's a lot of survivorship bias in these kinds of strategy discussions where people look at the one company That's able to pull this off, and they don't look at the 50 other companies that are in the graveyard, you know, because they, you know, beca…”
Andreessen: Open-source AI lags leading proprietary models by about six months
“Right now, you know, which I think what you would say is it kind of lags the leading edge proprietary implementations by, you know, six months or something like that.”
Andreessen: Total Deaths Attributable to ChatGPT Are Still Zero
“Yeah, I believe in this case, total deaths attributable to ChatGPT are still zero.”
Andreessen: The Company That Obsoletes Smartphones Will Become the Next Apple
“Whoever cracks the code on that will be the next Apple.”
Andreessen: Most Open-Weights AI Models, Including DeepSeek, Omit Training Data
“What most of the open source open weights models don't have, including, you know, deep seek specifically, What they don't have is they don't have open data, right? Or open corpus, right? So you can't actually see the training data that went, went into them.”
Andreessen: Principled Anti-Ad Stances Are Anti-Broad Access
“If, you know, if you take some principle stand against ads, I think you unfortunately are also taking a stand against, against, against broad access, just in the way the world works today.”
Andreessen: AI Training Copyright Disputes Must Ultimately Be Resolved by Congress
“I think in that, but for that particular problem, my guess is that problem ultimately has to be solved through legislation. It's ultimately a legislative question.”
Andreessen: Musk eliminated research vs product division at xAI
“Within XAI, he's now collapsed, you know, he's eliminated the distinction between research and product.”
Andreessen: DeepSeek and most open-weights AI models do not share training data
“What most of the open source open weights models don't have, including, you know, deep seek specifically, What they don't have is they don't have open data, right? Or open corpus, right? So you can't actually see the training data that went, went into them.”
Andreessen: Open-source AI developers will increasingly publish training datasets
“And then correspondingly, I think what we'll see is more open source developers also doing open corpus open data.”
Andreessen: AI cannot scale to billions of users on paid subscriptions
“If you really want to get to fi, if you want to get to a billion and then five billion people you can't do that with a paid offering. Like it just, you, at any sort of reasonable price point, it's just not possible. The, you know, global per capita GDP is not …”
Andreessen: The best route into VC is early product development experience
“The best way to do it is to have a track record early as somebody who is like in the loop specifically on new product development. And so somebody who, you know, be like deeply in the trenches at one of these new companies in one of these spaces you know, part…”
Andreessen: LLM Researchers Were Surprised ChatGPT Was the Breakthrough Moment
“Like if you talk to the people who worked on like, I'm sure you guys have talked to people who work on language models, they will tell you that they were surprised the chat GPT was the breakthrough moment. Cause they thought everybody already knew what these m…”
Andreessen: Public Excitement Arbitrarily Disconnects From Underlying Technical Progress
“There's somewhat of a sort of arbitrary disconnection between what's actually happening in the substance and then what people are seeing and feeling. And so it's just, it's really hard to predict when these things pop, but also if you're in this day to day, it…”
Andreessen: Elon Musk Eliminated the Research-Product Distinction at xAI
“Elon, as usual, of course, is provoking this question, is, I'm sure you guys talked about, but, you know, he has now, you know, with NXAI, he's now collapsed, you know, he's eliminated the distinction between research and product”
Andreessen: Meta Ray-Ban Glasses Prove Eye-Based Wearables Work
“Like the meta Ray-Ban glasses are a big hit. Right. Like they're a big, you know, so I think we now have a form factor that we know works, you know, for eye-based wearables”
Andreessen: Tim Cook Shipping Vision Pro Shows Positive Drive to Innovate
“One of the, you know, things you could say about, you know, Tim is his, you know, his willingness to kind of break the mold of Apple only shifts perfect products, but, you know, be willing, be being willing to ship the You know, the vision pro you know, it sho…”
Andreessen: More Open-Source AI Developers Will Publish Training Corpuses
“And then correspondingly, I think what we'll see is more open source developers also doing open corpus open data. So you can see what's actually in them.”
Andreessen: Billions Cannot Access Frontier AI via Paid Subscriptions
“If you really want to get to five, if you want to get to a billion and then five billion people you can't do that with a paid offering. Like it just, you, at any sort of reasonable price point, it's just not possible. The, you know, global per capita GDP is no…”
Andreessen: AI Chat Privacy Cases Will Reach the Supreme Court
“On the on the privacy thing. I think that, that one feels like it's a Supreme court thing. To me, it feels like that's the kind of issues had a Supreme court. And the, in other words, like whether, for example, your chance, Transcripts are considered your prop…”
Andreessen: Best Way Into VC Is Early Product Development Track Record
“The best way to do it is to have a track record early as somebody who is like in the loop specifically on new product development. And so somebody who, you know, be like deeply in the trenches at one of these new companies in one of these spaces you know, part…”
Andreessen: Lessons From Corporate Near-Death Moments Are Skewed by Survivorship Bias
“So if you talk to any really successful company, what they'll tell you is, yeah, over the years we have these like crucible moments in which like we almost died. Right. But we like pull together and we pulled it off. And then that became like, you know, one of…”
Andreessen: Elon Musk Reconfirmed Plans to Open-Source Older Grok Models
“Elon reconfirmed overnight that he's going to, you know, open source, you know, start open sourcing previous versions of Grok.”
Andreessen: Original iPhone Lacked Broadband and App Store, Took Five Years
“And people, you know, people forget it took like five years for the iPhone to find its footing. It took like two years to get the, I remember also the original iPhone didn't have, it didn't have broadband data. It was on the old two G it was called the AT&T ed…”