why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Kilpatrick: AI models now outperform humans on most vision tasks
“If you look at like multimodal, like the fact that the models can like with better, better than just from a multimodal input perspective, better than humans are at like most vision tasks, like The number of products and like things that that unlocks is like tr…”
Assertion Supported
Kilpatrick: Gemini 2.5 Pro Relied on Pre-Training Innovations, Not Just RL
“But I think if you look at like a, an example of this in practice, like 2.5 pro is actually an example where it wasn't just like RL scaling that made that model better. Yes, RL was part of the story, but like there was also a bunch of pre-training innovation a…”
Assertion Supported
Kilpatrick: Google's Full-Stack Control Extends From Silicon to Model Delivery
“Google controls. From a product perspective, like all the way to how the models are delivered to how the models are trained down to the silicon. So like you can make decisions assuming a bunch of those things are going to be true, which is like a lot of folks …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Real-Time Audio and Video Is Next Major AI UX Iteration
“I don't think we've seen like across other product services, people actually invest in like real-time audio and real-time video and image stuff. And I think that's like the next iteration of the UX of how people are going to interact with AI models.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: In 10 years, AI interfaces will look eerily similar to texting
“And I actually think if we've, if we fast forward like. 10 years, I do think there's going to be a lot of those experiences which like look eerily similar to the way that they do today, because it's just like so ingrained in like human culture, like how, like …”
Assertion Partly supported
Kilpatrick: Multimodal Foundation Models Match or Beat Domain-Specific Vision Models
“Relative to today where you can literally just write a prompt and send images or videos to the model and have it do those tasks like with basically, you know, near or better accuracy than you would get from domain specific models is absolutely fascinating.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: AI assistance creates a measurable output delta across all disciplines
“There's a delta in your output if you are AI assisted versus not across coding across every discipline right now.”
Assertion Supported
Kilpatrick: AI inference costs dropped 99% over two years
“Cost of AI down 99% over the last two years.”