The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Logan Bartlett predicts tariff-induced corporate paralysis will trigger a US recession
“I think people are going to be stuck in this state of paralysis a little bit of like, what do we actually do right now? And inherently, I think that becomes self-fulfilling in the way that it's going to lead to a recession for us. I hope, again, I hope I'm wro…”
Bartlett: Sovereign wealth replaced pensions and endowments in mega VC funds
“I think if you talk to smart endowments or pension plans or stuff, they, they've definitely as fund sizes have gotten to three, four, five, six billion dollars. Like those people have raised eyebrows and maybe voted with their feet to either scale down or walk…”
Megafund 'relievers out of the bullpen' are driving up startup prices
“I've probably seen more of Hey, this fund has a bunch of money and you might not be getting their number one person. It could be their, you know, whatever, their reliever out of the bullpen that's coming in to do the round. And those are the ones that they're …”
Bartlett: Most AI equity value will probably accrue to Big Tech incumbents
“And I think in large part, maybe with the exception of open AI, like the vast majority of the equity value will probably end up accumulating to the Facebooks and the Microsofts and the, you know, the Googles and I guess open AI as well.”
Logan Bartlett expects new US trade tariffs to be a permanent policy
“I do think we probably need to take it literally at this point and assume that this is probably here to stay in some way, shape or form.”
Logan Bartlett: AI hardware supply chains will suffer from tariff disruptions
“There's so many complicated pieces of the puzzle from an AI standpoint that that I think it's going to be hard to disassociate the aggregation that is what's being tariffed into AI. And in talking to people over the weekend that are exposed to these large mode…”
Bartlett: AI-native startups will create hundreds of billions in equity value
“But I still think we'll end up with hundreds of billions of dollars of equity value created for, you know, the derivative companies akin to the, Yeah. To the Ubers and the WhatsApps and whoever else.”
Logan Bartlett: VCs will keep investing despite downturn due to cash reserves
“And so I do think with the war chest that a lot of the venture firms have right now, I think it's going to take a while before people actually stop dancing. I think everyone's going to convince themselves, at least in the near term, that this is a good buying …”
Logan Bartlett predicts market capitulation will take several quarters to manifest
“And so my guess is it's probably going to take a couple quarters before anyone starts to capitulate that maybe this is the new normal, particularly given how manic the market has kind of been and the decision seems to have been.”
Bartlett: Morgan Stanley conference saw most negative market sentiment since COVID
“I heard some Morgan Stanley equity research person said that coming out of their conference, which is a week ago, they said it was the most negative sentiment that he had heard. I think with the exception of the onset of COVID in the last 10 years from people …”
Bartlett: Public software firms are adopting private equity efficiency playbooks
“If you look at the big software private equity folks, the Vistas and the Toma Bravos of the world, like they've been doing this for the last, It's 1015 years. I just think it wasn't something that people really tried to do in the public markets, and now we're …”
Bartlett: Post-ZIRP venture market hollowed out tier-two funds
“There was really a triaging or kind of a hollowing out of the middle that occurred, or maybe the tier B if you will, a tier two funds where you saw a handful of those folks blow up or really struggle with their fundraisers in some way.”