The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,055 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 14 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hayes: Ramaswamy is unfit for office after taking Jeff Yass donations
“I truly believe that anybody that's taking donations. From a major ByteDance shareholder. And then going out and saying that they will That TikTok should only stay in the control of ByteDance, which we've now determined through this entire last hour is ultimat…”
Escaped OpenAI model hacked Hugging Face seeking benchmark test answers
“So the models found a zero day vulnerability, gained internet access and broke into hugging face because the model believed It hosted answers to the test.”
Hays: Ferrari Will Never Be Competitive in EVs
“It's basically proving that Ferrari, I don't think can ever, I don't think they'll ever be competitive in EVs.”
China blocks Meta's $2 billion acquisition of AI platform Manus
“China has blocked Meta's two billion dollar acquisition of artificial intelligence platform Manus after regulators reviewed whether the deal violated Beijing's investment rules.”
Hays: Data center moratorium would be catastrophic for AI progress
“The act has a long way to go, and it seems like the odds of it getting into law are low, but not zero. It's safe to say that as written, the requirements in the bill would be an incredible gift to America's adversaries and catastrophic for overall AI progress.”
Hays: Uber would be worth over $1T if Kalanick remained CEO
“His take, which I totally agree with is it's hard to, if Travis had stayed in the role, It's hard to imagine Uber being worth less than something like a trillion dollars today.”
Hays: Elon Musk's lunar mass driver keynote is an IPO pump
“But still, this seems like a, just kind of a blatant sci-fi pump going into the IPO.”
Hays: Anthropic Officially Designated as a Federal Supply Chain Risk
“This also coincided with Anthropic, I guess, officially being designated as a supply chain risk”
Block reduces its workforce by 40 percent, cutting 4,000 employees
“Square is cutting from 10,000 to 6000 employees, a 40% reduction.”
CEOs will slash headcount regardless of actual AI efficiency gains
“So again, it doesn't really matter whether or not a company is actually getting tremendous efficiency from AI. Every CEO is going to do this.”
Hays: Anthropic Battles Pentagon Over Surveillance and Lethal AI Uses
“It's also locked in a battle with the Defense Department over how its clawed suite are used after it told the Pentagon it couldn't be used for domestic surveillance or autonomous lethal activities.”
Hays: Terraform Administrator Accuses Jane Street of Insider Trading
“The court-appointed administrator of Do Kwan's Terraform Labs alleged that Jane Street used non-public information about Terraform insiders to trade the play-by-play.”
Hays: Anthropic's ad campaign plants false impression of ChatGPT ads
“It's brilliant, well-timed, and incredibly strategic for a few reasons I'll outline below, and it's designed to plant a false impression of Chad GPT's forthcoming ad product in the minds of hundreds of millions of Americans.”
Hays: Claude has lost the race to reach billions of users
“Anthropic has already lost the race to serve billions of people, right? I don't think that they're, when you look at Gemini's sort of traction, OpenAI's, ChatGPT traction, like it seems like the race to get to Three billion monthly actives is kind of over. I d…”
Hays: Jeffrey Epstein Invested in Coinbase at a $400M Valuation
“Looking back and seeing, seeing even, even after the original conviction, how many companies he was able to get in, he got into Coinbase at 400.”
Hays: SpaceX and xAI in merger talks ahead of planned IPO
“So, they're in discussions ahead of a blockbuster IPO planned for later this year. The combination would bring Musk's rockets, Starlink satellites, and X social media platform, and the Grok AI chatbot under one roof.”
Hayes: David Solomon Was Told to Shut Down Marcus or Resign
“DJ D Sol was told to shut down Marcus and Consumer, or get out of the job. So he cut all of Marcus except for savings.”
Hays: Steam has won the hardware war, obsoleting Xbox and Apple VR
“Steam has won. There's no reason to get an Xbox. There's no reason to get an Apple VR headset. They all run on Linux. It's the ultimate computer.”
Hays: OpenAI could swap ChatGPT's model for Claude and retain users
“OpenAI could swap out the underlying model,
And still accrue the vast majority of value.
So, hypothetically, you could have ChatGPT, chat.com, powered not by GPT-Five, but instead powered by Gemini or Claude, and still see positive user growth, monetization, b…”
Hims bends rules because GLP-1 cash outweighs risks, says Hays
“Yes, of course they're bending the rules around compounding and like, but they seem to be okay with that risk appetite because they're printing so much cash off of this that they're like, it's one of those situations where they're like, even if we get, you kno…”
Hays: Chinese E-Commerce Coordinates With TikTok to Manipulate US Consumers
“The Chinese companies coordinate to use TikTok as a channel to influence activity in the U S.”
Hays: Nvidia valuation is hard to justify as competitive moats crack
“So at the high level, Nvidia faces an unprecedented convergence of competitive threats that make its premium valuation increasingly difficult to justify at 20 x forward sales and 75% gross margins. The company's supposed moats and hardware software and efficie…”
Hays: Chinese labs have insiders at all major American AI labs
“Well, one thing, but I'm sure Chinese labs Have people inside at all the major American labs, and so anything that is being discovered at the American labs is being ported back.”
Hays: DeepSeek is China's Next Subsidized Tech Trojan Horse Like TikTok
“I'll go out on a limb to say this is China's next attempt at a DJI TikTok type. Product where, hey, let's basically sell this product in America for way less than it costs. Give it away for free. Try to get a bunch of important, you know, companies using it or…”
Hays: Any Important Chinese Tech Company Defaults to CCP Front
“The main thing from my point of view is China has repeatedly shown that they're willing to lie, they're willing to sell things for less than they cost to make in order to get an edge in the U.S. Market, and I do think this is, again, the default state of any i…”
Hayes: Warren takes record finance donations and is 'most toxic politician'
“Elizabeth Warren has, like, taken more money from, like, big finance than, like, any politician in history. Like, she is truly the most toxic politician of all time.”
Hayes: China stalls foreign tech until domestic clones replicate their products
“They will let you come and they will let you build, but they will stall you. They'll kick you off banking rails. They'll do all this stuff to just make it so that you cannot succeed over there until a Chinese clone is able to copy and learn enough about your f…”
Hayes: Jeff Yass funneled millions of dollars into Vivek Ramaswamy's PAC
“Turns out Jeff Yass has funneled millions of dollars into Vivek's pack.”
Jordy Hays: Mayor Bass Stayed in Ghana After Wildfire Briefing
“She was briefed on the fires on Monday, decided to stay in Ghana. ... She was fully briefed.”
Jordy Hays is partnering with a robotics startup to film armed robots
“I'm, we're, I'm working with a portfolio company that I won't name yet, but we're going to be able to go. We're, they're going to give it a gun. And we're going to be able to go make some content.”
Hays: Tech Aligned with Republicans Because the Party Became More Pro-Technology
“It became obvious this election cycle that the Republican party was more oriented around technology, right? And big part of that is because some of the biggest donors to the Republican party are technologists, Peter Thiel Elon Musk. And so I think that a lot o…”
Hays: Sequoia Will Make Money on Its X Investment in 10 Years
“I would be willing to bet my house that they'll make money on this investment in 10 years.”
Jordi Hays predicts high-valuation startups will sell at 90% discounts within three years
“We're gonna see this exact same thing play out right now, where there's companies that are around this valuation now that, that three years from now will sell at a 90% discount.”
Hays: Massive AI Pay Packages Create One-Year Retention Cliffs
“When you're paying these people nine figures, 10 figures many of those people are gonna basically spend a year and hit a point where they're like, okay, I have a hundred million dollars in the bank and I'm kind of good now.”
Hays: Meta only open-sources AI models lacking exceptional demand
“I don't, like, knowing how commercial this team is, I don't think they would open source or open make the model open weights if they felt like there was going to be exceptional demand for it.”
Hays: Mark Zuckerberg lacks real AI product vision or strategy
“Ultimately, it's a lot of words from someone who I don't believe has any real vision or strategy.”
Social media regulation may mirror the Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement
“So, so I brought it up because I think that we could be heading in that direction with social media.”
Demis Hassabis Was Disengaged From DeepMind Management Before Stepping Down
“Sources tell me he's already been disengaged from day-to-day management for a while now, but he was a firewall between DeepMind and the rest of Google, even as the two got pulled closer over the last couple of years.”
Google Gemini 4 Not Expected to Advance Frontier AI Capabilities
“Gemini four is not expected to push frontier AI forward the way fable and soul Just did.”
Hugging Face defended against AI breach using Chinese open model GLM-5.2
“So hugging face had to turn to open model, specifically GLM 5.2, which is deeply ironic, a Chinese open weight model that they run on their own infrastructure.”
Meta loses to Chinese AI labs because lawsuit fears block distillation
“Moonshot and Meta are in competition and they both open source things at various times and they have APIs and there's all the different businesses. And one is fighting with one arm tied behind his back because Meta can't do distillation because they'll get sue…”
White House to redirect $200B research budget from universities to scientists
“The guidance will reshape how the federal government spends roughly two hundred billion dollars a year on research for the rest of Trump's term. The administration wants more of that money going directly to scientists through fellowships and awards rather than…”
Hays: Treasury Secretary Bessent warned of sanctions on overseas AI IP theft
“This morning our Treasury Secretary Besant was on Fox and said, this administration supports open source models, but what we do not support is IP theft. If we see, especially that overseas models are stealing from our great companies, we have the ability to sa…”
Hays: China's MOFCOM Discussed Restricting AI Weights and Overseas Training Data
“Moffcom. Talk to AI companies including Alibaba, ByteDance, and Zipu on limiting the transfer of key data for the training of their models overseas, as well as allowing their model weights to be downloaded by foreign users.”
Hays: Netflix used generative AI across 300 different productions in 2026
“Netflix disclosed it has used generative AI in about 300 different productions this year already.”
Hays: Satya Nadella has been running Xbox into the ground
“Satya has been running Xbox into the ground for the love of the game.”