The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 163 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 23 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Coogan: AI labs will likely solve the Millennium Prize problems this year
“I think that the millennium prize will get solved or proved or delivered probably this year, if not like this week, it feels like all of the different labs are like, Put a million dollars of inference on this. Put a million dollars of inference on this. There …”
Coogan: Self-driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLMs
“My latest hot take is that self-driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLM technology and that companies that take it seriously and actually prioritize it. It is not some insane insane tech breakthrough that cannot be implemented in other vehicles. It …”
Coogan: AI agents will entirely replace human GitHub commits by year-end
“I would expect like 70%, and I would expect Codex to be at 30%, and no more human commits because it's working.”
Coogan predicts chip controls and datacenter slowdowns are the likeliest AI brakes
“The big hammer is just chip controls and data center build out, slow down. That's the easiest thing, and I think that's, like, the biggest valve that they're going to be, that we're going to see twisted around to actually slow down capabilities.”
Coogan: $500B of compute only covers one year of AI scaling
“Ten billion, or 10 gigawatts of powered compute which is, you know, the labs are at, like, three combined across a few of them and we've been on this three X scaling, so this is really just, like, next year's compute.”
Coogan: Data center financing is moving from VCs to institutional debt
“This is going to move the data center game out of the VCs and into the big leagues.”
Coogan: AI cost per completed task will fall by 50% to 90% next year
“The cost per task completed by AI will decrease very quickly. So even if you're spending half a billion per month on AI or tokens today the same output will be available next year, maybe for a 10th of the cost, maybe next year, it's half the cost.”
Coogan: Software and interactive games will become the next meme format
“And I think the next version of this is like software as a meme. S-A-A-M, something like that.”
Coogan: AI agents will damage SaaS companies relying on switching-cost moats
“At the same time, the coding model is as remarkable as they are. They'll reshuffle the economics of tech. We're seeing this with the SaaSpocalypse. Certain companies will be stronger beneficiaries of AI. Others will be Damaged because maybe their only moat was…”
Coogan: World models will compete directly with Roblox and Fortnite long term
“Definitely competitive in the long term. In the medium term, like, super good for prototyping and communication, and this is a key flow to, okay, you have an idea, and you don't just wanna You know, generate a basic image of the game that you're trying to buil…”
Coogan: AI providers will eventually pay Apple to route search queries
“Now my real hot take is that I think it's going to flip at some point. And I think Google or someone else is going to pay Apple To route LLM queries to them, because with the universal commerce protocol, agentic commerce protocol with ads and LLM responses, th…”
Coogan: Declining inference costs and monetization will make LLM queries net profitable
“I think the price of inference will continue to decline, and the value of each query, the monetization of each query will Increase until there's a flippening. And then all of a sudden, every LLM query that's generated is on net across the entire category, gene…”
Coogan: Netflix Will Ultimately Win Bidding War for Warner Bros. Discovery
“I feel like it's going to land with Netflix.”
Coogan: Space Data Center Capacity Will Remain Under 1GW by 2027
“I would probably say like, There will be under one gigawatt of capacity in space by the end of 2027.”
John Coogan predicts China wins a 15-year AGI race on energy advantages
“If AGI happens in 15 years, China is more likely to get it because they're on a steeper energy ramp than we are. But if AGI happens sooner, and it's, and it is just sort of an algorithmic breakthrough, like we do have an advantage in America because we have mo…”
Legacy toy manufacturers like Mattel will inevitably adopt blind boxes.
“The conclusion to the Lububu story? Well, it's probably, like, Ty, the maker of Beanie Babies, or Mattel, the maker of Barbie, getting into blind boxes. Yeah, like, that's the only answer. That, that's the, where the, like, the arrow of progress moves in one d…”
Coogan: No new chip architecture will displace Nvidia GPUs or Google TPUs
“It doesn't seem like there's some new disruptive chip architecture that's gonna come out and obviate the need for both NVIDIA GPUs and Google TPUs, and so Google's very well positioned”
Coogan Predicts General Catalyst Will Go Public
“I think there's going to be a general catalyst going public.”
Coogan: Novo Nordisk supply will eventually severely limit compounded GLP-1s
“It may take a few more quarters, but Novo Nordisk will eventually produce enough supply to end the shortage of its drug. When that happens, despite their efforts to influence public opinion, Compounded versions will likely be severely limited.”
Coogan: DeepSeek will push inference costs down and disrupt B2B AI
“And this will drive the cost down even further. So hugely disruptive to the B to B space.”
Coogan: Most future consumer AI usage will occur through existing platforms
“Most future consumer LLM usage will go through existing platforms, Google, Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook, iPhone, Android.”
Coogan: Meta's AI Deployment Will Likely Hurt Google Search More Than Bing
“And so Meta's deployment probably hurts Google search more than Bing or perplexity ever will. Because people will just wind up searching in Facebook and Instagram.”
Coogan: DeepSeek Open Sourcing Leading-Edge Model Will Disrupt AI Competition
“Zuck has been running this playbook with Llama open sourcing the lagging edge AI model, and it's had a strong effect on the competition. And so deep seek open sourcing, the leading edge model is going to have a similar effect.”
Coogan: AI systems will eventually produce more cash flow than humans
“At some point, The value of like these AI systems directly producing cashflow will be higher than humans.”
Coogan: OpenAI will introduce free-tier ads and up to $2,000/mo subscriptions
“Clearly all of that product stuff's getting ironed out and they're going to have ads in the free version all the way up to a 2000 dollar a month tier or 200 dollar a month tier.”
Coogan: TikTok ban is happening unless Trump overrides it
“There is a law that's passed that should ban TikTok. It's happening unless Trump overrides it.”
Coogan: Maggie Haberman will become irrelevant without building a personal brand
“Maggie, no one's going to be talking about you in a couple of years. You need to be building a brand. Like you're going to be irrelevant. Taylor is clearly a glimpse into the future here.”
Coogan: 2028 election will pit JD Vance against AOC or Buttigieg
“And so my bet that I would put on Polymarket right now is that The twenty-twenty-eight election is between JD Vance and AOC, or JD Vance and Buttigieg, because AOC and Buttigieg both can actually sit and be real people for several hours, and AOC's done it with…”
Coogan predicts pushback against AI regulation that favors top ten incumbents
“You're going to see a lot of pushback from people who are like the regulatory stuff is going to be like these 10 companies and I'm going to be number 11 and I'm basically getting the corporate death penalty then because I didn't make the cut to be one of the r…”
Coogan: AI proving Navier-Stokes is unlikely to advance practical engineering
“Proving this, ah, this, these equations is unlikely to actually have any measurable impact, and that's sort of agreed upon, and physicists have sort of chimed in with this take that, ah, this doesn't, this won't actually move the discipline of engineering forw…”
Coogan: Tesla Could Build 1M Robotaxis in One to Two Years
“Over a year or two, they could probably manufacture a million robo-taxis, and I think the technology is pretty much there.”
Coogan: Cursor, Anthropic, Meta, and Google Will Buy Cerebras Chips
“Every, every lab that has exploding demand, Cursor, Anthropic Meta, and Google, like, unless they have, like, a direct answer to this, I would see them being a buyer in the near term.”
Coogan: AI labs will shift compute from consumer video to enterprise
“And so I think you're gonna see The chips be moved around inside of all the labs to like compute will find the most optimal output. Like the tokens of the most value will always be the ones that it flow that the compute flows to and endless random generations …”
Coogan: An operational lunar mass driver is 15 to 20 years away
“I put the over under at like, 15 to 20 years, which is about as aggressive as I could get.”
Coogan predicts building a lunar mass driver will take 15-20 years
“I put the over under at like 15 to 20 years, which is about as aggressive as I could get.”
Coogan: A SpaceX IPO is coming around September or October 2026
“So, maybe September, maybe October, but, ah, it's coming.”
Coogan: AI Adoption Will Be Very Steep and Dramatic Despite Survey Doubts
“I think that the AI adoption will be very steep and very dramatic, but I just think it's important to recognize that like, this is a paper that people will be citing. This is a paper that will shape policy.”
Coogan: AI-generated Hollywood films are ten years away, not one or two
“And maybe that's possible, but I have a feeling that it's just like, it's not a year away, it's not two years away, it's a little bit farther, still on the ten-year camp, still on the Kurzweil timelines”
Coogan: Extreme AI Disruption Is on a 10-Year Timeline, Not 1-2 Years
“And maybe that's possible, but I have a feeling that it's just like, it's not a year away. It's not Two years away. It's a little bit farther, still on the 10 year camp, still on the Kurzweil timelines.”
Coogan: SaaS is bifurcating into 'sloppable' and 'unsloppable' companies
“I do think we're starting to see a bifurcation in the sloppable companies and the unsloppable companies. There should be some Divergence between companies that have figured out how to integrate with AI, how to retool their business model, or just show that the…”
Coogan: Frontier AI will remain a long-term oligopoly of three labs
“And also it sort of explains why a lot of the VC firms are getting in multiple companies because they don't think it's going to be winner take all anymore. They think it's going to be much more oligopolistic for the longterm, and there will be competition betw…”
Coogan: Generative AI up-resing will drive future video game graphics progress
“In theory, you should be able to run, like, a Gen AI up-resing pass to make it more photoreal, and I feel like that's gonna be where more of the juice is squeezed out of the graphics than just continuing on the traditional path of, like, more pixels, more ray …”
Coogan: Anthropic is about to win the public vibe war
“They've been winning the Vibe War with developers, and they've been winning the Vibe War on X, and now it feels like they're about to win the Vibe War in the public in the public square.”
Coogan: Multi-agent orchestrators will double METR autonomous coding benchmark
“Orchestrators, it feels like these are the next, it's the next easy unhobbling that will cause another doubling in the meter software engineering time horizon benchmark.”
Coogan: Cybercabs will eventually replace consumer car purchasing entirely
“And probably, you know, I do think over time, like, less and less trim levels, and then eventually it's just cyber cabs, and no one's buying cars anymore.”
Coogan: Integrating Gemini Will Upgrade Siri From D-Tier to B-Tier
“We're going from like a D tier product to now we're baking in a new model, Gemini, which is going to take it to like B tier.”
Coogan: Apple will bar third-party AI agents from iOS local APIs
“They have their walled garden. The walls are staying up. They're not letting Claude Cowork go around your iOS installation and hook into all your different local APIs. That's the domain of Apple intelligence.”
Coogan: Apple will lag in AI health if response is delayed
“It's very clear that if Apple or Chachapiti Health is rolling out, it's going to take time for people to ramp up, start integrating things, start using it, but if that behavior develops, and it's another two, three years until Apple responds, like, yeah, they …”