The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 992 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 33 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Coogan: AI labs will likely solve the Millennium Prize problems this year
“I think that the millennium prize will get solved or proved or delivered probably this year, if not like this week, it feels like all of the different labs are like, Put a million dollars of inference on this. Put a million dollars of inference on this. There …”
OpenAI Agents Built Internal Message Board to Escape Sandbox
“OpenAI member of technical staff, Michael Dalton, revealed That its autonomous agents created a message board with each other to help break out of a sandbox environment to get access to the internet.”
Yacht broker sues Revolut CEO Nik Storonsky over $20 million commission
“Cecil Wright and Partners, a luxury yacht broker filed the legal action in London's High Court over Stronsky's acquisition of Nixie, a 335 foot vessel with four terraces. The broker alleged in a court filing that it was negotiating the purchase for Stronsky wh…”
Coogan: Citadel agreed to buy Situational Awareness's public stock portfolio
“Prime brokers reportedly rushed to raise cash to meet margin requirements while Ken Griffin's Citadel, my former employer reached a deal to purchase the funds publicly traded assets.”
Bloomberg: Phia extension injected affiliate codes during checkout without user interaction
“Bloomberg tested the FIA mobile browser extension across more than 50 websites and found that during the checkout process, FIA opened a background tab without user interaction and injected its own referral code that overrode legitimate referrals from other pub…”
Coogan: Self-driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLMs
“My latest hot take is that self-driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLM technology and that companies that take it seriously and actually prioritize it. It is not some insane insane tech breakthrough that cannot be implemented in other vehicles. It …”
Coogan: Alibaba has repeatedly distilled Anthropic's Claude model
“Anthropix's Alibaba has distilled, clawed many, many times, and I saw a chart of the amount of tokens that are getting resold.”
Coogan: OpenAI bought 40% of global raw DRAM wafer output
“Also, apparently, OpenAI made deals to purchase 40% of the global raw undiced DRAM wafer output until 2029.”
Coogan: MedV runs 800 fake doctor Facebook accounts to sell GLP-1s
“They are apparently running 800 fake doctor accounts on Facebook to sell compounded GLP ones. Shiel Monat verified that the accounts are not actually doctors.”
OpenAI acquires tech talk show TBPN
“OpenAI acquires TBPN, accelerating the global conversation about AI.”
Coogan: OpenAI offers PE firms a 17.5% minimum return
“OpenAI is offering private equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%, as well as early access to models not yet in public release.”
Coogan: Reasoning and deep research models have basically solved LLM hallucinations
“Or they talk about hallucinated facts and LLM responses. Something that's basically been solved by deep Deep research and reasoning models”
Coogan: AI agents will entirely replace human GitHub commits by year-end
“I would expect like 70%, and I would expect Codex to be at 30%, and no more human commits because it's working.”
Coogan: 17% of Tracked Tech Figures Appeared in Epstein Emails
“Big tech alerts that around 17% of the people that we track with this account are on the Epstein emails.”
Coogan: SpaceX confirms plans to merge with xAI before IPO
“SpaceX confirms plans to merge with XAI before the IPO. Elon Musk plans to merge SpaceX with XAI.”
Musk says xAI will exceed all combined AI compute in five years
“Elon Musk says that XAI will have more AI compute than everyone else combined in less than five years.”
Coogan: METR Study Found AI Coding Tools Made Developers 19% Slower
“The meter team did these evaluations where they ran a randomized control trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up open source developers, and what they found was that developers said that they expected products like cursor and windsurf to improve them by…”
Coogan: Surge AI generated over $1B in 2024, surpassing Scale AI
“The company generated more than one billion dollars in revenue last year. Surge has told employees, a previously reported figure that exceeds The eight hundred and seventy million dollars scale generated in revenue during the same time period.”
Coogan: Developers cannot train AI models on AMD due to software bugs
“Like you literally cannot train a model on their chips because it's so buggy and their software is so bad.”
Coogan predicts chip controls and datacenter slowdowns are the likeliest AI brakes
“The big hammer is just chip controls and data center build out, slow down. That's the easiest thing, and I think that's, like, the biggest valve that they're going to be, that we're going to see twisted around to actually slow down capabilities.”
Coogan: AI created one million US jobs versus 200,000 related layoffs
“Add it all up, and the economist estimates that AI so far has created around one million new jobs in America that easily exceeds the roughly 200,000 layoffs attributed to AI since mid-twenty-twenty-three.”
Coogan: $500B of compute only covers one year of AI scaling
“Ten billion, or 10 gigawatts of powered compute which is, you know, the labs are at, like, three combined across a few of them and we've been on this three X scaling, so this is really just, like, next year's compute.”
Coogan: Data center financing is moving from VCs to institutional debt
“This is going to move the data center game out of the VCs and into the big leagues.”
Coogan: Paramount threatens California exit if Attorney General delays settlement talks
“Ellison reportedly told his leadership team last week that the Paramount Skydance Board has already approved the relocation plans if negotiations with Bonta haven't begun by August first.”
Coogan: Tesla Acquisition Eliminates Musk's Operational Pay Milestones
“If Tesla undergoes a change of control, essentially, if Tesla is acquired, the operational requirements disappear. You no longer have to hit a million robotaxis or a million optimists to unlock those new tranches of stock for Elon. If there's a change of contr…”
China adds one gigawatt of nuclear capacity every two weeks, Coogan says.
“Countries like China are bringing online one gigawatt of nuclear capacity every other week, which is insane.”
New Mexico judge orders Meta to pay over $900 million
“A New Mexico judge has ordered Meta to pay more than nine hundred million dollars And impose new restrictions on how minors in the state use Facebook and Instagram.”
Intel Converted CHIPS Grants to Equity to Meet Trump Requirement
“So in order for the government stake to reach 10% demanded by President Donald Trump, Intel had to convert billions in manufacturing grants advanced under the 2022 CHIPS Act, plus 3.2 billion dollars of contracts from the Department of Defense into equity.”
Demis Hassabis steps down as Google DeepMind CEO for Alphabet role
“He announced that he's stepping down as CEO of Google DeepMind. He's also stepping up into the role of Google DeepMind chairman, and he will also be Alphabet's chief scientist.”
Coogan: China controls 85% of the global humanoid robotics market
“So 5000 units were delivered from each unitary and adubot. By comparison, U.S. Companies, including Tesla and figure, shipped only a few hundred robots each, if that. China is also estimated to control about 85% of the global humanoid robotics market, and also…”
Coogan: Analysts predict OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs within next year
“Some analysis, some analysts who study the AI industry say the two companies which are preparing for public listings in the next year, they just want to eliminate the competition.”
Saronic Chooses Texas Over California Forever for $3.2 Billion Shipyard
“California forever lost a 3.2 billion dollar shipyard project from defense startup Saronic after the company chose the port of Brownsville, Texas over Solano County.”
Apple Filings Claim OpenAI Poached Over 400 Apple Employees
“Apple's filings also spends quite a few words on the fact that OpenAI has poached more than 400 employees from the company in recent years.”
SpaceX Unit Sues Apple and Prototypes Smartphone-Like AI Device
“A unit of SpaceX is suing Apple for disadvantaging its AI app, and the company is now prototyping its own smartphone-like AI device.”
Paramount Weighs California Exit After State Blocks $110B WBD Merger
“Paramount is weighing whether to shift major operations out of California after Attorney General Rob Bonta and 11 other state attorneys general, I always get that wrong, filed today to block its one hundred and ten billion dollar acquisition of Warner Brothers…”
Coogan: Top RL Data Contractors Earn Seven Figures Annually
“The top expert contractors at every data company, they're all making seven figures a year. Which is pretty crazy since people thought of data labeling as a 10 dollar an hour task, and now you have people making millions of dollars a year, because they're actua…”
Coogan: Meta is planning a cloud business to sell AI compute
“Meta platforms is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to AI computing power and models competing with industry leaders like AWS and GCP.”
Coogan: Academic study finds Google AI Overviews cut organic clicks 40%
“Eric Sufert is sharing a new paper by researchers at Carnegie Mellon in the Indian School of Business finds that AI overviews were triggered in roughly 41% of observed Google searches, and when triggered, reduced outbound organic clicks by about 40%.”
Coogan: Meta Reassigned 30% to 50% of Core Engineers to Data Labeling
“30 to 50% of engineers on core teams have been forcibly, forcefully reassigned to data labeling.”
Coogan: Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Build Prediction Market App 'Arena'
“Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction markets app, which is a wild shift. The experimental app internally called Arena would be independent of Facebook and Instagram. It could compete for attention with Polymarket and Kalshi, the biggest prediction ma…”
Coogan: Anthropic Halted Mythos After Model Hacked NSA Systems in Red-Teaming
“There was, of course, that news that the NSA commented that Mythos was able to hack into a bunch of their systems. That was during a red teaming exercise. The unprecedented intervention led Anthropik to halt all access to comply with the new rule.”
Coogan: Anthropic Suspended Fable 5 Following Commerce Department Directive
“And on June 12th, just five days after the end of the week, Fable Five gets suspended after the Commerce Department issues an export control directive.”
Coogan: U.S. Export Controls Bar Foreign Nationals From Accessing Anthropic Models
“The US government is restricting both Fable Five and Mythos Five from being used by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the US, including foreign national Anthropic employees, and so that's a huge compliance burden, very sudden, and that led Anthro…”
Coogan: The Information Reported Amazon's Jassy Raised AI Jailbreak Concerns With White House
“Then the information reported that Andy Jassy at Amazon had raised concerns with the senior administration officials about jailbreaking. The risk of jailbreaking fable and getting access to all of Anthropic.”
Berkshire Hathaway to buy $10B of Alphabet in $80B capital raise
“Berkshire's buying ten billion worth of shares at a roughly six percent discount from Monday's closing price. Another thirty billion dollars will consist of underwritten public offerings, and the last forty billion will be staggered common stock offerings Begi…”
Coogan: AI cost per completed task will fall by 50% to 90% next year
“The cost per task completed by AI will decrease very quickly. So even if you're spending half a billion per month on AI or tokens today the same output will be available next year, maybe for a 10th of the cost, maybe next year, it's half the cost.”