The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hotz: AI application wrappers like Cursor and Windsurf will fail
“And then on top you have, like, completely worthless things like cursor and windsurf you know, these character AI, all these people who think, oh, we're the app, we're gonna get the ARR. No, that worked in the web, it won't work for AI”
Hotz: AI scaling laws deliver linear returns for exponential capital
“AI scaling laws. You can put in exponentially more money to get linear returns.”
Hotz: Waymo robotaxis require approximately 1.2 remote human operators per car
“There's probably about, I would say there's 1.2 operators per car. But it's not, they don't have a steering wheel and pedals. It is an autonomous system that they're probably doing some higher level inputs on.”
Hotz: AI is a far better military technology than nuclear weapons
“So, like, as a military technology, nukes are not that good. AI is way better.”
Hotz: Robotaxis will be a scooter-style capital race to the bottom
“Self-driving cars look like scooters. The only thing that it's going to take to roll out big fleets of self-driving cars is capital, right? It's just strictly a capital market... So self-driving cars are going to be this awesome race to the bottom, right? It's…”
Hotz: Robotic arm hardware is good enough, robotics is strictly software
“The arms are already good enough. It's the off the shelf arms are fine. It's all software. Again, it's always all software. Autonomous vehicles are all software. Robotics is all software”
Hotz: Shift to diffusion AI models will erode centralized cloud moats
“With AI, I think there's going to be a much less of a moat. Especially when you look at the move from autoregression to diffusion. So autoregression can run in large batch sizes. When you run ChatGPT, you're running with a whole bunch of other people on that s…”
Hotz: Comma.ai rejects stealth mode because competitors cannot out-execute him
“Nah, we don't believe in stealth. I'm a really open guy. You are pretty open. I tell you everything I'm doing. Come on. Here's what I say. Here's what I say. I'm going to tell you what I'm doing. And you can try to compete, but I'll still crush you.”
Hotz: Either Nvidia is overvalued or AMD is significantly undervalued
“Either Nvidia's really overvalued or AMD's really undervalued. It has to be one or the other.”
Hotz: Automated flight booking will arrive via APIs, not agentic web browsing
“We're gonna pretty soon have computer use models that are actually capable of going to Delta.com and booking a flight. But then what's actually gonna happen is Delta's gonna partner with whatever company does that, and they're gonna put it behind the stupid th…”
Hotz: Current machine learning models are 1,000x less data efficient than humans
“Like current machine learning algorithms, like a thousand X less data efficient than humans. So yeah, you need a thousand X more data, right? If a human can learn something in one example, or 10 examples, the computer is going to need a thousand or 10,000.”