The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tan: There will be very few successful defense tech companies
“I don't think, I agree more with Dellian comments about that there's not going to be many successful defense companies.”
Tan: San Francisco would still be dying without OpenAI
“Without OpenAI success, SF would be dead and still dying.”
Tan: YC founder conference unlocked $10B–$100B in value
“I think that we brought together about 200 of all of our top founders. You know, there are about 60 or 70 unicorns represented. And I think that we unlocked, you know, easily 10 to a hundred billion dollars in new market cap like that very night”
Tan: Albedo builds spy satellites superior to the US government
“Albedo is super hardcore because they basically have made spy satellites, but you know, they're better than what the U S government can do. And, you know, they might just replace replace that market for that.”
Tan: Opening Apple devices to rival AI agents would spur investment
“Then there are a billion consumers in the world who would suddenly have access to not just one self-preference Siri, but a variety of American labs. And that would open up investment. That would open up prosperity.”
Tan: Platform neutrality could enable hundreds of thousands of 10-person $1B companies
“We actually need the platforms to allow other people to enter, but if we do that, we can actually have tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of companies, each of which can get to a billion dollars net revenue each, you know. And like, you could do it pro…”
Tan: YC alumni Axiom generated hundreds of millions in pure profits
“And hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profits.”
Platform neutrality could enable hundreds of thousands of 10-person $1B companies
“If we do that, we can actually have tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of companies, each of which can get to a billion dollars net revenue, you know and like you could do it probably with 10 people, right?”
Tan: The federal government has 4.5M credit cards for 2M employees
“So there's 4.5 million cardholders in the federal government. There's only two point something million employees.”
Tan: Startups will reach $100M ARR with 10 people in next few years
“Now, actually you can go from like zero to a hundred mil ARR with like 10 people. We're about to see that in the next few years. Like I think it's already been happening.”
Garry Tan says Initialized Capital would have failed if YC collapsed.
“I realized that actually if I stayed at initialized and didn't come back and heed the call of Paul and Jessica to write the ship at YC I would be out of a business. I, you know, I had initialized would have been out of business if YC itself was not going in th…”
Garry Tan: VCs hard-allocate over $1B yearly to Y Combinator companies
“The other thing is I have more than a billion dollars a year in capital that's basically just, like, hard allocated to YC companies, ah, not from us, from, like, you know, Hundreds of VCs who now are all coming back to Demo Day in droves.”
Tan: 18-to-22-year-old YC applicants and acceptances increased 110% year-over-year
“The wild stat that we're seeing is actually the number of 18 to 22 year olds applying to YC and getting is up a 110%. Year on year, right?”
Tan: Y Combinator is currently accepting startups at a 0.8% rate
“We're accepting companies at a 0.8% rate right now.”
Garry Tan: Accepted 18-to-22-year-old YC applicants are up 110% year-over-year
“The wild stat that we're seeing is actually the number of 18 to 20 two-year-olds applying to YC and getting it is up a 110%. Year on year, right?”
Garry Tan: YC alum Axiom generates hundreds of millions in pure profit
“And they're doing hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profits.”
Tan: 100% of YC companies currently have technical co-founders
“What's happening is that like, you know, a hundred percent of YC companies these days have technical co-founders”
Tan: A prerequisite to using AI tools well is not needing them
“And being able to go all the way to ground and debug the thing and, you know, basically a prerequisite of using these tools well is that you don't need the tools.”
Tan: Non-founders can run the founder mode playbook
“It turns out, you know, you don't have to be the founder to try to run the founder mode playbook.”
Garry Tan: About 90% of YC batch companies are AI startups
“You know, I think we're about 90% AI and you know, the age of intelligence is here.”
Tan: YC Spring 2025 batch is 90% AI, batch revenue growth hit 12%
“It's like 90% AI. It's about 10% 11% hard tech, which is awesome. And then the really crazy stat is, you know, how the last four batches, about the last year you know, the batch itself as a whole has been growing revenue by 10%. This time it's 12.”
Garry Tan: Y Combinator acceptance rate is down to 0.8 percent
“We're accepting companies at a 0.8% rate right now.”
Garry Tan predicts an inevitable AI shared memory layer for operating systems.
“The tricky thing is it's pretty clear that OpenAI, Anthropic, and you know, Windows, Apple, iOS, Android. Like, this is sort of how the OS almost inevitably will work, assuming that people still make software.”
Tan: Roughly 30% of YC companies pivot during their batch
“Something like 30% of the companies change their idea during the batch, and that's actually great.”
Garry Tan: YC Spring 2025 batch is 90% AI, 11% hard tech
“Dude, it's like 90% AI. It's about 10% 11% hard tech, which is awesome.”
Roughly 30 percent of YC startups pivot during the batch
“Something like 30% of the companies change their idea during the batch, and that's actually great.”