The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Thornton: Future combat assets will be too small for hypersonic missiles
“My personal belief, and this is, again, sort of a contrarian take, I think future warfighting has to be so decentralized that most of the assets used to fight wars are actually not large enough to consider taking out with a hypersonic missile.”
Thornton: China will out-manufacture the US on identical drones and missiles
“If the US is manufacturing a quadcopter and China's manufacturing the same quadcopter, if we're making a cruise missile and they're making the same cruise missile, they will out-manufacture us.”
Thornton predicts future forces will fight via decentralized multi-system kill webs
“The future for structure looks a lot more like a, it's kind of a buzzwordy term, but like almost like a kill web of hundreds of different systems, each doing some element of sensing communications and shooting such that your force is kind of fighting from ever…”
Thornton: US lost 30 MQ drones in CENTCOM's Operation Rough Rider
“The U.S. Conducted an operation last year called Rough Rider and CENTCOM, and it, We lost something crazy, like, 30 MQs, like, 30 Preds and Reapers and that was not against as nearly as sophisticated of an adversary”
Thornton: U.S. runs out of ammunition in days during war games
“In war games, we run out of ammo and literally a couple of days.”
Thornton: China produces cruise missiles orders of magnitude faster than US
“Regardless, you're talking about orders of magnitude more production than the U.S. Has right now, which is, serves as a wake-up call.”
Thornton predicts US-China war would end in days via cyberattacks
“Look, I mean, unfortunately in a modern day, I think a hot war would end relatively quickly. Like you're talking about a very decisive outcome when you think about cyber effects and how quickly infrastructure in both countries would shut down. When you think a…”