The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel: Meta is the first company paying AI researchers their true value
“I mean, I still think they're, like, underpaying them. I think, like, Meta's the first company that is actually coming close to the break-even point of what the best AI researchers are actually worth the company.”
Patel: Pre-training returns are plateauing; GPT-4.5 was unimpressive and deprecated
“Pre-training seems to have been giving us these plateauing returns. We make these models bigger. GPT-Fort .5 didn't seem to be all that impressive. They had to deprecate it.”
Patel: AI Adoption Bottleneck Is Intelligence, Not Inference Cost
“I think the real bottleneck is just, we got to make them smarter. I don't like, they're already so cheap. It's like two cents per million tokens or something ridiculous. I think the real bottleneck for me using them more is not their price, but them being more…”
Patel: US Export Controls on AI Technology to China Are Wise
“So I think like the expert controls and whatever are wise.”
Patel: Physics Will Not Stop Robots From Accelerating Economic Growth
“I think, like, you could get another X and I don't see any in-principle reason why at the next X, the physics is, like, just would not allow the robots to move fast enough.”
Patel: Incumbents Struggle With AI Because They Treat It as a Feature
“They're not AGI filled enough, you know, like if you treat it like another feature well, I mean, even if you treat it like another feature, it's like mysterious why Siri doesn't work on my phone, but like, it's like more people basically. And if you take that …”
Patel: 50% Chance a Closed AI Loop Achieves Superintelligence
“The basic question is, can you get this like closed loop where you build the AIs which are helping you accelerate AI research, dot, dot, dot, super intelligence? I'm like, fifty-fifty on that question.”
Patel: Carl Schulman Is the Most Underrated Foundational AI Thinker
“The one who is, I guess, also super, super underrated is Carl Schulman. And I think, I don't know if this name rings a bell to you, this man is, like, You would not believe the amount of ideas that are out there in the AI system, from, like, the software-only …”
Patel: Chinese Audiences Prefer Practical Media Over Casual Podcasts
“The sense I got was that they are more concerned, like, whether it's young people or just whatever people want to consume, Is often more focused on practical matters. And if you listen to Joe Rogan, it's very much like, Let's just shoot the shit about whatever…”