why aren't all 37 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Senra: Masayoshi Son is a gambler who never built a useful product
“He is a legit gambler and it's like a sad existence. He didn't build a product that made somebody else's life better. He didn't do any of that.”
Opinion
Senra: Dell runs the most financially successful family office in history
“Dell's family office is the most financially successful family office in history.”
Opinion
Senra: Mark Zuckerberg is by far the best 40-year-old public CEO
“It's like now he's like working, you know, the best you know, the best 40 year old public company CEO in the world by far”
Insight
Senra: CEOs Should Design Companies for Themselves, Not Future Successors
“He designs, he believes the founder or the leader should design the company, not for like what's necessarily best, like after they leave, but literally what's best for what they're doing now. He says, ultimately my E staff, which is his direct ports, ultimatel…”
Insight
Senra: Founders run companies based on their personality, not one archetype
“One thing that was like striking that missing from that essay is the fact like, you know, like it was like, well, there's a manager runs a company one way and a founder runs a company in one way. It's like, no, like the founder runs it based on the personality…”
Opinion
Senra: Great founders should skip side quests and work until death
“I'd prefer them to not have side quests. I'd prefer them to work on what they're working on until they're dead.”
Insight
Senra: Ramp co-founder Karim Atiyeh optimizes hiring for spikes over well-roundedness
“What Kareem is interested in is not like your total package. He's interested in your very best idea. So like, if you were the very best at X and he just wants you to do that for ramp. And if you only last for six months, that's fine. It's like, he just, he opt…”
Insight
Senra: The dynamic range between average and top performers in tech is 100x to 1,000x
“Steve jobs says that he's like, you can never, ever, ever, ever forget the dynamic range of human beings that most things in life you know, between the average to the best, it's like two to three, two, two times best, three times quality, where he's like, in s…”
Opinion
Senra: Larry Ellison shares more competitive drive with Michael Jordan than founders
“Larry Ellison has probably, like, more in common in terms of his competitive drive with, like, Michael Jordan than he does with, like, most other, like, founders, and I said something like you know, if Michael Jordan sold enterprise software, he'd be Larry Ell…”
Opinion
Senra: Bill Gates is Genghis Khan in a Mr. Rogers costume
“Bill Gates is like Genghis Khan in a Mr. Rogers costume. Like, he's like, dressed like Mr. Rogers, but he's unbelievably, like, ruthlessly competitive”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Dell acquired EMC for $67B using $50B in debt
“He buys EMC VMware, right? Sixty seven billion dollars with like four billion of equity. So it's like, there was like a special dividend or something like that, but they wind up borrowing like fifty billion, 50 billion dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Apple's iPhone revenue alone eclipses Disney's entire combined business
“Apple makes more from the iPhone if they just had the iPhone and nothing else than, like, Disney does from every single thing they've ever, like, they, everything, all their theme parks, all their movies, everything else, just, like, that one single product.”
Assertion Supported
Citadel Made $30B Trading Commodities By Hiring Ex-Enron Talent
“And in the talk that I used for the basis of the episode, because there's no biography written on Ken, he goes, And since then we've made about thirty billion dollars trading commodities.”
Insight
Senra: Elite operators obtain proprietary information by charming gatekeepers
“This idea of like buttering up, you know, the gatekeepers inside of a business, like that David Geffen's biography, he talks about, he had a huge advantage doing that. Michael Ovitz, I just did two episodes on Michael Ovitz, same situation. Like they're always…”
Insight
Senra: Rockefeller, Carnegie, Griffin, and Walton won through faster tech investment
“They all have in common that they invest in technology, the savings compound, and it could be gives you an advantage over slower moving competitors, and it could be a, the difference between a profit and a loss, and if you go back and look at Rockefeller, Carn…”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Todd Graves owns over 90% of $10B+ Raising Cane's
“Todd Graves, the founder of Raising Cane's. So Raising Cane's, this guy's been running his business for 30 years. He owns over 90% of it. It's worth at least ten billion dollars.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Senra: Raising Cane's founder Todd Graves is strongly anti-private equity
“Based on what he says, like, he's pretty anti-making decisions just based on financial reasons. Like, he talks a lot of shit in his interviews about, like, PE people, what, like, he's just not a big, he's not a fan at all.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Senra: Charlie Munger named John D. Rockefeller the greatest founder of all time
“When I went to Charlie Munger's house and had dinner with him, like he said that the greatest, he feels the greatest founder of all time is Rockefeller.”
Disclosure
Senra: I operate without an assistant or schedule to focus on reading
“I go, why do I need an assistant? He goes to answer these emails and they're like manager schedule. I go, why do I need a schedule? Like, I just need to wake up every day, read for a few hours, sit down once a week and talk about what I read. I don't need to d…”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Larry Ellison required real-time footnote rebuttals to cooperate on his biography
“So to get to agree to cooperate with the author, he's like, you can write whatever you want, but I must be able to answer on the same page and like have my like counter argument.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Michael Dell launched Dell with $1,000 and zero venture capital
“It's even crazier than that, where like, he started the company with a thousand dollars, no co-founder, no VCs.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Daniel Ludwig Was the Richest Person in the 1980s
“So I had to republish an old episode, and I republished an old episode about this guy named Daniel Ludwig, who was the richest man in the world in the 19 eighties, and no one knew his name.”
Assertion Contradicted
Senra: Daniel Ludwig Made More Money From Yacht Access Than Supertankers
“He let them use it, and he said later on that he made more money from that ship than all of his supertankers combined.”
Assertion Supported
Ken Griffin Chartered A Jet To Hire Enron's Top Traders Immediately
“The day it blows up, and keep in mind, in this story, Ken Griffin's, like, 33. He's, like, really, really young. And he immediately charters a Gulfstream jet, goes to Houston, and interviews every single person that was important in the Enron trading business.…”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Ken Griffin secured Harvard dorm satellite dish for live trading data
“The one thing I heard was that he convinced Harvard to let him install like a satellite dish so he could get real up to the minute data. He was the only person at Harvard that had this data flow.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2030
David Senra: Ken Griffin is building history's most expensive house in Palm Beach
“He's building, I think, what's going to be the most expensive house in history in Palm Beach.”
Assertion Supported
Ken Griffin Modeled Citadel's Risk Wall After Saudi Aramco's Operations Board
“He built this thing called a risk wall in Citadel. It's 30 feet by 10 feet. It's a giant screen. And he says before they were getting like a B, B plus on how well they were managing risk. And, you know, Ken's not gonna be satisfied with B anything. And so he a…”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Ed Thorp built the first quant fund and was Citadel's first LP
“And he was the first person, the person that made the first quantitative hedge fund ever. He built the world's first wearable computer with Claude Shannon. He was the first LP in Citadel.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Ken Griffin had over 100,000 job applicants to Citadel last year
“Last year he had over a 100,000 people apply to work for him.”
Assertion Partly supported
Senra: Iconic founders received poor business school grades for their startups
“These founders write a business plan in business school about their idea and they get terrible grades. So like Fred Smith, the founder of FedEx, C minus Todd Graves, lowest grade in the class Phil Knight for Nike, same thing, bad grade”
Assertion Supported
Senra: James Dyson still owns 100% of Dyson
“James Dyson, who still owns a hundred percent of Dyson”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang manages roughly 60 direct reports
“He's got 60 direct reports, I think in the book. I think when they start writing a book, it's like 30, and I think it goes up to 60, because the book just came out.”
Assertion Partly supported
Senra: Sam Zell spent millions annually on custom gifting and automatons
“Sam Zell had a, he spent millions of dollars a year from my understanding on his full-time gift department. In fact, he built these like automatons, right?”
Assertion Partly supported
Senra: Charlie Munger gifted Robert Cialdini a Berkshire share for Influence
“Charlie Munger's, one of his favorite book was influenced by Robert Cialdini. He liked it so much, he gave him a single share of Berkshire stock when it was valued at, like, 500,000. I think today it's, like, 750.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Jimmy Soni Spent Longer Writing 'The Founders' Than PayPal's Lifespan
“It took him longer to write the founder's book than it took PayPal to be founded and then sold to eBay.”
Disclosure
Senra: I work alone because I am intensely harsh with colleagues
“This is, like, one of the reasons I tend to work alone is because I am really fucking mean. And I don't like that. I wish I wasn't so, you know like intense around that. I'm perfectly fine being that way with myself. I just don't like doing that to other peopl…”
Assertion Partly supported
Senra: Only 1,000 copies were ever made of 1946 book 'Rolex Jubilee'
“The book I'm going to talk to you about today is nearly impossible to find.
It was first published in 1946.
There's only a thousand copies ever made.
It's called Rolex Jubilee.”