The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Anduril leadership frequently warns investors about fake primary allocations
“We've been long time and real investors and they have tweeted a ton about fake allocations in their primary rounds being marketed to investors.”
Top private companies avoid open secondary marketplaces for price discovery
“The best companies want to control their cap table. The best companies have unlimited demand. Right. And so in that essence, you don't need a broader market to have random buyers and sellers to do price discovery. Right. And so I think the best companies gener…”
Unofficial secondary SPVs operate in a black hole with fraud risks
“A lot of that operates outside of that and is kind of a black hole and maybe not the best place to be in because you, one, don't collaborate with the company and then two, you don't have access to information.
Right.
And so and the third is potentially like …”
Garrett dismisses secondary market trading lists as uninformed noise
“A lot of them are noise. They're not signal, you know, transactions and a lot of those transactions are uninformed buyers and uninformed sellers. As an institutional firm, we don't pay attention to them and the best companies don't either.”
SpaceX runs two annual tender offers totaling over $1.5 billion
“SpaceX has raised ten billion dollars in primary over its, you know, 23 years of being around as a company. They've been running, you know, two tenders annually that, you know, total like more than a billion and a half dollars a year for a long time.”
Percentage of holdings sold signals more than absolute dollar size
“You want to think about the two dynamics around percentage of holdings and then total dollar size, right? And those are interesting, right? Like in some sense, if you sold five million bucks, but it's half of your holdings, right? Five million bucks at a certa…”
Founders are generally more bullish than investors and sell for life needs
“Most founders are the most bullish in their company, even more so than the investors. So the desire to sell is generally pretty tapered and usually driven by life needs.”