The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Byers: $70M pre-product seed rounds will be a huge waste of capital
“There's seed rounds at 70 with nothing and like four 19 year olds. Like this is insane. And because Ventures Power Law, that individual deal can make sense if it's the right one. But as an industry, it's going to be a huge waste of capital.”
Chad Byers Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 13:05 "I Partner with People" - Chad Byers talks about Venture, Fitness, and Being a Chad.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Byers: Apple will face innovator's dilemma against personal AI copilot startups
“We think the apples and others are going to have a little bit of innovators dilemma on this stuff.”
Chad Byers Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 19:59 "I Partner with People" - Chad Byers talks about Venture, Fitness, and Being a Chad.
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2031
Byers: 2021 venture capital vintage will be historically poor
“Like that vintage is going to be historically shitty.”
Chad Byers Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 12:47 "I Partner with People" - Chad Byers talks about Venture, Fitness, and Being a Chad.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Byers: AI will spark a Cambrian explosion of non-venture-scale SMBs
“There's going to be this Cameron explosion of. Like micro S and B and midsize company creation that AI enables that maybe shouldn't be venture backed”
Chad Byers Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 17:50 "I Partner with People" - Chad Byers talks about Venture, Fitness, and Being a Chad.
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