why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Gurley: Chinese Open-Source AI Is Biggest Threat to US Dominance
“I said then, and I still believe now, the biggest threat to the U.S. Let's call it AI hegemony is, is the Chinese open source models, and the developers even in the US that are working on their own are using those, and you can see that on all the tables that a…”
Opinion
Gurley: Stablecoin rails are a real innovation with scale
“You know, I was probably overly skeptical of at least many of the crypto messages that were out there, but the stable coin rails seem like a real, real innovation and something that has scale.”
Opinion
Gurley: Mega VC Funds Hijacked Startups' High-Growth Years from Public Markets
“You look at the Stripe or the Databricks case, they're using those large funds to convince the companies to stay private longer, maybe forever that's just a very different world than the one that I grew up in.
I think they turn around and the people that do t…”
Insight
Gurley: Index Funds Already Provide Sufficient AI Exposure for Retail Investors
“There's an interesting irony that if you wanted AI exposure, you're pretty good just owning the index.
NVIDIA is such a large part of the index.
You have exposure to Microsoft and Google and Facebook.
Like, I don't know that you need to be in that place”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Heavy US Regulation Could Hand Global AI Market to China
“If we get super heavy on U.S. Regulation, you may find there's a fence around the U.S. And China serves the rest of the world.”
Insight
Gurley: Easy VC markets lead investors to back ill-fitting, capex-heavy businesses
“Every time venture cap, every time venture capital gets easy, people take or take risk with companies that are less of a great fit for the venture capital model. And when I say a great fit, like they're either heavy capex or they have low gross margins. They r…”
Insight
Gurley: Debt and leverage increase failure risk, notably in data centers
“There was near death with Tesla many times, and it's a lot easier to get in those difficult situations when you're using debt and leverage, which we're seeing all over these data centers.”
Insight
Gurley: Traditional College Pathways Restrict Student Agency and Exploration
“One of the problems that is, that has kind of evolved is that our college, our common college pathway has actually become more restrictive, and I think there's less agency, and kids are, Being encouraged. They have to sign up for a major before they ever go to…”
Opinion
Gurley: Day trading is not a durable skill
“Based on my understanding of day trading in a Wall Street context, you know, prior to maybe the crypto world, I don't, I'm not aware of any signal that suggests that's a durable skill. And I think the data points the other way”
Insight
Gurley: Hyper-curiosity is the single biggest career differentiator
“The thing that will differentiate you more in your career than anything else is to be the most hyper curious person That that's trying to do this thing. And once again, that's put on steroids with these AI tools. But if you are the most curious person that's c…”
Opinion
Gurley: China Is Clearly Better at Running Infrastructure Than US
“I also think that there are things we could learn from China about how to run infrastructure in the US. They're clearly better at it than we are.”
Opinion
Gurley: AI Is Entering Public Consciousness Faster Than Prior Tech Waves
“I don't remember one. I mean, if you take the mobile wave or the PC wave or the, Client server or SaaS. I don't remember any of those kind of being thrown at the public consciousness this fast, and so I do think it's different this time on, from that front alo…”