The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thompson: China's Optimal Response to US Super-AI Dominance Is Bombing TSMC
“What happens if we get super powerful AI and China doesn't? What are they going to do? The optimal thing would be to just bomb TSMC out of existence, because suddenly that becomes optimal, even with all the costs that that does, and then what?”
Ben Thompson Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 4:24 FULL INTERVIEW: Ben Thompson on Anthropic v. DoW
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thompson: Sovereign Militaries Will Inevitably Seize Control of Frontier AI
“If AI is what it is, The people with guns are going to want to have a say. Whether that be domestically, whether that be internationally, that might be in the context of the U.S. Government just taking it, trying to kill your company because they feel you're n…”
Ben Thompson Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 8:00 FULL INTERVIEW: Ben Thompson on Anthropic v. DoW
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thompson: Anthropic Military Standoff Is First of Many State Power Clashes
“To the extent AI is as impactful and powerful as it is, The more these questions, fundamental questions that we thought have been settled for hundreds of years, if not thousands of years, are going to be raised, and this is just the first of several episodes w…”
Ben Thompson Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 12:23 FULL INTERVIEW: Ben Thompson on Anthropic v. DoW
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