why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Epstein: Suspending the Jones Act would lower California fuel prices
“And if you suspend the Jones act, then you can get more efficient transportation, which means we can at least have lower prices here. And we can have less of a price shock”
Assertion Supported
Epstein: Nuclear energy lacks viable portability for general transport in near future
“They don't even have a portability solution though for the near future, unless you're talking about aircraft carrier or an icebreaker or something like that.”
Assertion Contradicted
Epstein: Alternate routes to Strait of Hormuz only handle 1-2M barrels daily
“There are certain pipelines you can pipe more oil through, there are alternate routes, but we're talking about the millions a day, maybe. Most of our other options are sort of in the one to two million barrels a day.”
Assertion Partly supported
Epstein: US SPR Holds About 400M Barrels With 4M/Day Release Capacity
“So they have more reserves relative to their imports than we do relative to ours. If you think about ours, we have about 400 in the SPR and we can release about four million a day.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2027
Epstein: Venezuela Produces Under 1M Barrels Daily and Cannot Scale Fast
“Venezuela is less than a million. It's just, I mean, it's beyond crazy. It's just impossible. It's not like Venezuela has the ability to just increase their oil production by any significant amount in the near future.”
Assertion Supported
Epstein: US Refineries Are Built for Heavy Crude, Not Domestic Light Crude
“The refiners in the U S do not match up well to the oil produced in the United States. The refineries in the United States are based on heavier crude, like crude is rated in terms of weight and sourness. And so our refineries are mostly for heavier crude.”
Assertion Supported
Epstein: Global oil spare reserves and capacity total roughly six million barrels
“So we have the IE, the rest of the IEA, we have ours, and then to my knowledge, we have Saudi slash UAE, them using spare capacity and then piping it where they can. So maybe combined, we're talking about six million a day.”
Assertion Supported
Epstein: Canada holds more oil reserves than US with one-third the production
“They have way more oil deposits than we do, way more oil reserves, but they have on the order of a third of the production, and in part, because they have absolutely terrible policies, which are their fault, but in part, we have had terrible policies, includin…”
Assertion Supported
Epstein: Twenty percent of global oil production flows through Strait of Hormuz
“You know, straight of Hormuz, which Iran has control over, is 20% of the world's oil production is flowing through that every day.”
Assertion Supported
Epstein: IEA Member Allies Hold 1.4 Billion Barrels of Strategic Reserves
“The International Energy Agency, we are part of the International Energy Agency Reserve Program. So we have about 400, but they have about 1.4 Four hundred million. They have 1.4 billion.”