The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,353 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 20 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hays: California previously banned insurers from using climate models for pricing
“Did not allow the insurance providers to use catastrophe modeling and climate science to set premiums. So it's basically, so our California lawmakers were saying, Hey we just don't want you to charge a lot for insurance. So what we're going to do is say, you c…”
Coogan: Aon President Stated US Economy Is Overexposed to Climate Risk
“Eric Anderson, the president of Aon, the world's largest reinsurance intermediary, said, just as the U.S. Economy was overexposed to mortgage risk in 2008, the economy today is overexposed to climate risk.”
LA Fire Captain: Palisades Blaze Originated as Small Backyard Fire
“This jumped from a very small fire in the backyard. It ran up a ridge. Once it hit that ridge, we had these erratic winds, and it just had an ember cast that just pushed this throughout all of Palisades.”
Coogan: Police blocked private firefighters from entering LA wildfire zones
“Private firefighters weren't allowed to get into places like the police weren't letting them go in. If you wanted to have private firefighters defend your home, that was not an option.”
Coogan: Los Angeles Cut Fire Department Budget While Increasing Police Funding
“LA had just cut its fire department budget and shows some of the department budget operational budget increases and decreases. And so fire was one of the few to actually get cut. Police went way up, library went up, housing went up, but fire and sanitation wen…”
Coogan: Meta is moving its trust and safety team to Texas
“He's like, oh, and by the way, we're moving our trust and safety organization from San Francisco to Texas.”
Coogan: Nvidia captures over 100% of total profits in AI
“Well, they have over 100% of the profits in AI right now. Because all the other companies are losing money, and they're the one that's printing money.”
Coogan: AMD's software is too broken to train AI models
“Even though they're hitting the benchmarks on the actual, like, computing power, like, price per flop, the software is so broken, there's so many bugs that you cannot train models on it.”
Hays: Tesla vehicles emit high EMF levels, especially in the backseat
“Tesla's just emit like a ridiculous amount of EMF which is, you know, sort of low level radiation. A lot of people say that it doesn't Have any negative effects. But there's quite a lot of evidence that it might. And you can actually go on YouTube and just sea…”
AI coding agent Devin is now the top code committer at Ramp
“Did you know that Devin is now the number one committer of code at RAMP?”
Hays: The average crypto fund has outperformed top 20% VC funds
“Historically, The average crypto fund has outperformed the average venture fund, or basically, no, the average crypto fund has outperformed, like, the top 20% venture fund.”
Congress forces the NRC to fund its budget through hourly regulatory fees
“Congress forces the NRC to fund its budget through fees paid hourly by the very companies it regulates, not unlike a law firm or consultancy.”
Perplexity CEO Offered to Replace Striking NYT Workers With AI
“The real, I guess the perplexity CEO did a PR push today saying that he would happily replace all of their writers with AI. Like he did a piece today.”
Coogan: Masayoshi Son claims $9T AI capex is reasonable or too small
“Masayushi Sohn, the head of SoftBank, is here quoted saying that, nine trillion dollars of capex for artificial super intelligence is very reasonable. In fact, it may be too small.”
Coogan: xAI made no ESG commitments and burns coal for training
“XAI just didn't make any ESG commitments. So they're just burning coal to just pump energy into this latest training run.”
John Coogan: Monthly AI job losses are under 1% of total US losses
“We mapped that there's something like 17,000 monthly AI related job losses, but that that's less than one percent of the 1.7 million jobs that are lost every month.”
John Coogan says the predicted SaaS apocalypse was fully averted
“So the SaaS apocalypse was fully, fully averted by the sales forces of the world, and the revenue decline never showed up in the SaaS companies. And so the SaaS apocalypse was canceled.”
Brockman: OpenAI surpasses one billion weekly active users
“We're now well over a billion users every week”
Brockman: ChatGPT market share is climbing again
“That the market share of chat GPT is starting to climb once again, because we've been investing so hard in In so many use cases that are important for people in education and health and a variety of other areas.”
Brockman: Integrated image generation capability is unique to OpenAI versus competitors
“Being able to have that image generation capability in the middle is something that's very unique to OpenAI relative to some of our competitors, and I think that you're able to then produce much better artifacts downstream”
Brockman admits OpenAI Operator was slow, inaccurate, and painful to use
“I think operator was just kind of below threshold in terms of the model capabilities. It was a cloud-based system that operated with computer use. It was slow. It wasn't fully accurate. It was like pretty painful to use. Some people got value, but it really wa…”
Coogan: Claude Fable 5.1 achieved highest-ever AI index score
“Fable 5.1 get the highest result ever on the index. The scores also have Opus five, which got 63, and Fable, which got a 62.”
Coogan: Anthropic replaces no-ZDR policy with Enterprise Frontier Safeguards
“The no zero data retention, no ZDR is going to be replaced with something called EFS enterprise frontier safeguards. And that may have attributed, may have contributed to lower Fable adoption among enterprises.”
Coogan: 80% of OpenAI and Anthropic Enterprise Revenue Comes from 1% of Customers
“OpenAI Ananthropic, 80% of their enterprise revenue comes from just one percent of the companies.”
Coogan: Hugging Face Turned Down $500M From Nvidia at $7B Valuation
“They became profitable in 20, 25, still had half the money that they raised. So Nvidia came in to offer five hundred million late 20, 25 at a seven billion valuation, but they turned it down.”
Nvidia offers $1B in employee retention packages to Hugging Face team
“I mean, the retention packages are apparently a billion dollars for a pretty small team.”
Coogan: GPT-6 Astra achieves 99.9% on ARC-AGI-3 benchmark
“The RKGI three number is crazy. The score is 99.9%, so it feels like they just beat that. They just beat RKGI B three.”
Torre: Aspiration co-founder Joe Sanberg is serving 14 years for fraud
“The co-founder, Joe Sandberg, is now, by the way, serving 14 years in federal prison for fraud”
Coogan: Some North Korean covert IT workers earn up to $300k annually
“Some North Korean IT workers earn as much as 300,000 dollars a year.”
Coogan: $8.5T Acquisition Triggers Full 423M Share Pay Package for Musk
“If that figure reached 8.5 trillion, all 12 tranches Tronches could qualify, putting Musk in line for the full four hundred and twenty three million share award without Tesla ever having to accomplish many of the pay packages operational milestones.”
Louisiana teachers received $50k bonuses from Meta data center tax revenue.
“In Richland parish, Louisiana, where Meta's building a large data center, teachers received a 50,000 dollar bonus this year because of the increased tax revenue from their investment there.”
Stanford and Arc study marks first real-world AI virus design
“While scientists have been synthesizing viral genomes for years to study diseases and develop vaccines, this is the first time AI has been used to design entirely new viruses that function in the real world.”
Google's ownership stake in Anthropic is contractually capped at 15 percent
“Google's ownership in anthropic is capped at 15%. They, I believe, have roughly 14%.”
Google holds no voting rights or board seats in Anthropic
“They don't have any voting rights. They don't even, they're not even a board observer. They don't have a board seat. They basically are just a purely financial background.”
OpenAI Slows Research and Reallocates Teams Following Agent Escapes
“Dalton, the OpenAI employee said the incidents marked a pivotal moment For the company and the industry as a whole, he said that numerous internal teams have dropped everything to dramatically expand OpenAI's ability to monitor its agents, and that the company…”
Intel Secures $7B From Nvidia and SoftBank Following Federal Intervention
“Since Washington stepped in, as you know, Jordy Intel has pulled five billion of investment from NVIDIA, two billion from Japan's SoftBank, and its shares have more than quadrupled, trouncing those of rivals.”
Jeff Dean leaves Google after 27 years to launch an AI startup
“Google CEO Sundar Pichai also announced that Google DeepMind chief scientist Jeff Dean will be leaving the company after a 27 year run to start, along with Google's senior fellow Sanjay Gemwat, a public benefit corporation to accelerate discoveries in machine …”
Koray Kavukcuoglu promoted to lead DeepMind without a CEO title
“Google DeepMind CTO, and Google's chief AI architect, Kore Kovu, Kovu, I can't pronounce it, I'm sorry is being promoted to SVP and will lead DeepMind, so Kore is now running DeepMind, but interestingly, there's no new CEO of DeepMind”
Anthropic accuses major Chinese AI labs of distilling its Claude model
“Anthropic has accused DeepSeek, Moonshot, Minimax, ZAI, Alibaba, all of distilling Claude”
Leaked Microsoft memo makes OpenAI GPT the default internal AI model
“A Microsoft exec Just sent an internal memo that's designed to end token maxing and makes OpenAI's GPT, GPT, the default model for internal use.”
Hays: Stripe data shows $1M+ solopreneurs doubled between 2023 and 2025
“An analysis by the payments company Stripe, Tyler, look up Stripe, shows there are thousands of solo operators on the company's platform that are generating over one million in revenue, with their ranks doubling between 20 23 and 20 25.”
Coogan: Study shows AI startups operate with 25% fewer employees
“He co-authored a recent study that found that among 50,000 startups the researchers examined, those focused on AI tended to operate with 25% fewer employees.”
Coogan: Situational Awareness held concentrated longs in Nebius, Micron, CoreWeave, shorted Adobe
“The fund had built concentrated positions In AI infrastructure companies, including Nebius, SanDisk, Micron, and CoreWeave, while also betting against software companies such as Adobe.”
Situational Awareness reached roughly $45 billion NAV before its liquidation
“June, June first, they were at a forty five billion of AUM, something like that was the nav. I think end of June.”
Shkreli: Citadel outbid Millennium for liquidated AI hedge fund portfolio
“So I, we heard Millennium did put in a bid. Citadel's bid was better.”
Coogan: Employees from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google Signed AI Pause Letter
“There's this open letter from a bunch of lab employees saying like, hey, maybe we should do a mutual pause. Maybe we should all slow down. And I think even some meta researchers signed that as well, but there's like a wide group from OpenAI, Anthropic, a bunch…”
Kim: Media Misconstrued Mark Zuckerberg's AI Remarks to Falsely Claim CapEx Cuts
“I think we saw earlier this month I think Reuters quoted, like Zuckerberg's about agentic AI. They took it out of context, and then every Media person was with the hot take that this Meta was seeing bad returns, and they're going to cut CapEx, and then we had …”