The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,353 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 20 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dixon: JPMorgan Chase Has 1,500 Employees Working on Blockchain Projects
“Chase, I think Jamie, Jamie Dimon talks trash, but I believe they have 1500 people on blockchain projects.”
Cohen: Copying Chewy's expanded catalog failed and cost GameStop shareholders heavily
“I hired a bunch of fancy people from both Amazon and Chewy, and we expanded the catalog, and we added a bunch of product, and most of that product didn't sell, and we ended up marking it down and taking a big hit, and it cost shareholders a lot of money, becau…”
Paul Tudor Jones Believes Current Market Resembles October 1999 Dot-Com Bubble
“I was talking to Paul Tudor Jones about a week ago, and he said, I was asking him this question about bubbles. He said, ah, I think we're in maybe like October, 1999. Right now. And I said, oh, that's interesting. Okay. 99. He said, but there's still, if you s…”
Peebles: Sora is the only video model reliably handling complex physics
“This model is a huge leap forward in terms of physics IQ. So pretty much all past video generation models really struggled with prompts that, you know, involve like backflips, gymnastics routines, et cetera. And this is really the only model that exists today,…”
Altman: Competitors copying ChatGPT even replicate OpenAI's design mistakes
“A lot of people have tried copying ChatGPT in, you can go look at some of our competitors' apps, and they even copy the mistakes. They even copy the design decisions we really wish we hadn't made.”
Rosenthal: Yann LeCun is the only major AI leader not from Google
“You know, every single major leader in AI that you know of, no matter what company they are at, with the one exception of Jan LeCun at Facebook. He's the only one. Who, like, didn't come from Google.”
Baker: Larry Page willing to risk Google bankruptcy to win AI race
“He said, Larry Page has said internally at Google many times, I'm willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. Everybody is focused on ROI, but the people making the decisions are not basically saying that scale, it's all about scale.”
Wang: Scale AI's research team of 100 scientists is one-tenth competitors' size
“Our team is smaller and more talent dense than any of the other labs. The other labs are like 10 times bigger, and our team is about a hundred people of cracked AI scientists”
Yang: Telecoms Charge $10 for Roaming that Costs Them $2.50
“When I was on Verizon, I went to Europe with my family this summer, and the travel pass cost 10 bucks a day to put yourself on the foreign carrier's towers. You know how much Verizon, AT&T are spending to put you on their partner's towers, about two dollars an…”
Karp: Palantir has lifted millions of people into homeownership
“Palantir's lifted, one of the things I'm proudest about in the world is, We've lifted people from their mom's garage to their own house. Millions of people.”
U.S. government agreed to convert $8.9B in grants into 10% Intel stake
“Intel and the U.S. Soon agreed that the government would use 8.9 billion in grants that have been committed, but not paid to take a nearly 10% stake at a slight discount.”
Trump taxes Nvidia and AMD China chip sales at 15 percent
“Trump struck a deal with Nvidia and AMD for the federal government to take 15% of their chip sales in China in return for allowing the exports.”
Dr. Drew: Silicon Valley microdosing categorically causes severe psychiatric problems
“The, that AI world is populated by people that microdose on acid and do ayahuasca, which I tell you it categorically causes severe psychiatric problems. I've seen it my entire career.”
Whaley: MSCHF covertly replaced a Met Museum sink piece by piece
“And so we found the sink. We did recon. We not me. I'm not, I, it wasn't me personally. It was somebody here. But we found, you know, we tracked down the serial numbers, the parts ordered exact, like replica. We ordered the exact same parts, built it here, tie…”
Whaley: MSCHF Replaced a Met Museum Sink Bolt-by-Bolt Over Months
“We found the sink, we did recon, we not me, I'm not, I, it wasn't me personally, it was somebody here. Names. But we found, you know, we tracked down the serial numbers, the parts ordered exact, like, replica, we ordered the exact same parts, built it here, ti…”
Hays: MIT Report Finds 95% of Enterprise GenAI Pilots Fail to Create Value
“MIT had a report this week saying that, you know, 95% of gen AI pilots in the enterprise are not turning into not creating real value.”
Randle: ChatGPT drives the majority of industry foundation model revenue
“The majority of all of that, or at least the plurality of all of that is ChatGPT. And ChatGPT, even though it is served by a foundation model company, is an application. It is a consumer subscription that has an immense amount of power. It has an immense amoun…”
Hays: Microsoft did more layoffs in 2025 than 2022-2024 combined
“One thing that stood out to me that has stood out to me across this year with Microsoft is they've done more layoffs this year than the past three years before that combined. So, twenty-twenty-two, 23, and twenty-twenty-four.”
Andreessen: Open-Source AI Lags Proprietary Models by About Six Months
“Right now, you know, which I think what you would say is it kind of lags the leading edge proprietary implementations by, you know, six months or something like that.”
Coogan: Google Is the Only Company With an At-Scale Nvidia ASIC Alternative
“Google is the only company, we talked about the TPU thing, they're the only company with an at-scale ASIC alternative to NVIDIA's GPUs, which should give them a meaningful cost advantage to that end, ah, to the extent that cloud compute becomes commoditized.”
Hays: OpenAI's current revenue cannot support its massive Oracle commitments
“OpenAI needs to massively
Scale infrastructure.
And as we covered earlier this week, commit to spending tens of billions of dollars with Oracle.
Yep.
And their revenue today doesn't support that.”
Hays: All Windsurf Employees Receive Accelerated Vesting in Cognition Acquisition
“This transaction is structured that 100% of Windsurf employees will participate financially. They will also have all their vesting cliffs waived. And we'll receive fully accelerated vesting for their work today.”
Shkreli claims Jim Cramer threw computer monitors at hedge fund analysts
“So like he would take a computer monitor and just throw it at you. And it wouldn't be like one of these playful, like, oh, I'm just going to throw it at you. And like, you're going to get out of the way. He'd like aim dead center for you with like, with force.”
Shkreli: Only ~5% of Jane Street and Two Sigma staff use Bloomberg
“We have this data that shows that around five percent of Jane Street and Two Sigma use Bloomberg, and the reason is because they view it as an entry-level tool.”
FDA authorized Juul via Marketing Granted Orders after net positive health review
“The FDA has issued marketing granted orders. These are MGOs. We'll get into this, but it's, like, slightly different than, like, FDA approval for a drug for the Juul system, recognizing that these products, as appropriate for the protection of public health, t…”
DiRico: Rainmaker suspended Texas operations two days before flooding occurred
“It was over two days prior that Rainmaker had suspended all of its cloud seeding operations in Texas because, one, our forecasters and our meteorologists saw that there was going to be this severe weather event, and we needn't operate to produce more water whe…”
DiRico: Rainmaker's July 2 flight released 70g silver iodide and 500g salt
“On July second, we conducted 1:19 minute cloud seeding flight where we released about 70 grams of silver iodide and 500 grams of salt, table salt. That was released at about 1600 feet above ground level into two clouds that dissipated over the course of two ho…”
Soham Parikh denies outsourcing his engineering work to junior developers
“I wish I had the money and I wish that was true, but that is not true. Any of the founders that you know I worked with can watch with that. I have multiple locations like pair program with people, you know, I've written every single inch of the court.”
Suhail Doshi states Soham Parikh had a net negative impact at Lindy
“I am literally out of a meeting like an hour ago, where the engineer described his impact as negative.”
Prince: Anthropic is 30,000x and OpenAI 750x harder than Google for traffic
“As you looked at open AI, it was about 750 times harder than with the kind of Google of old to get traffic with something like anthropic is 30,000 times harder.”
Prince: Iran is targeting US financial and infrastructure firms with cyber attacks
“We're starting to see that Iran is targeting other other largely U.S. Financial services firms critical infrastructure firms to try and see, to sort of try and strike back from what is you know, how, how do they strike back against the US in a way that that, t…”
Coogan: OpenAI Recalibrates Compensation to Fight Meta Poaching While Balancing Fairness
“Chen promised that he was working with Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI and other leaders of the company around the clock to talk to those with offers, adding, we've been more proactive than ever before. We're recalibrating comp and we're scooping out creative wa…”
Coogan: OpenAI used FP8 weight storage two years before DeepSeek
“And when you talk to Dylan Patel, I was asking him about deep seek and how deep seek was doing all these innovations and like moving to floating .8, like smaller smaller, basically smaller numbers, storing the weights. And he was like, oh yeah, but open AI was…”
Depue: Yann LeCun had no involvement with Meta's LLaMA models
“I think it's a shame that they didn't necessarily have someone in the llama org who was as visible as him because he was not involved with llama at all. Like fair fundamental AI research is like a whole other group that they mostly write papers and do very aca…”
Parekh Says He Completed All Startup Take-Home Assessments Himself
“Most of these companies essentially had a take-home assessment or a work trial, right? So it's very difficult to, like, game a work trial or game a take-home assessment. Like, you have to do it and then deliver it and I did everything, you know, on my own. Lik…”
Coogan: Strike on Fordow consumed over a year of US GBU-57 production
“The strike package that destroyed the Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow represents over one year of U.S. Production capacity of the GBU-fifty-seven bunker buster. Its primary explosive, AFX-seven-fifty-seven, is difficult to produce, and we don't have many fa…”
Huberman: Congress is considering a 40% cut to NIH research budget
“There is an upcoming vote in Congress in September, I believe, and it's on the table to cut the overall budget for research for NIH by 40%, four to zero.”
Huberman: Trump administration proposed capping university indirect costs at 15%
“Earlier this year, the Trump administration said, We're cutting that to 15% across the board for all universities”
Huberman: Data shows microdosing psilocybin lacks major effects on depression or PTSD
“The data on microdosing psilocybin Are basically clear that it's not known to have any major effect on major depression or some of the other things that psilocybin is being tested for clinically including major depression, PTSD, et cetera.”
Tan: YC alumni Axiom generated hundreds of millions in pure profits
“And hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profits.”
Coogan: OpenAI secured a $200 million contract with the US DoD
“They scored a two hundred million dollar US defense contract. So they're working with the DOD.”
Coogan: Surge AI has been profitable since inception, unlike Scale AI
“And unlike scale, surge was profitable and has been from the beginning, Chen said.”
Congress is considering a 40 percent budget cut to the NIH
“There is an upcoming vote in Congress in September, I believe, and it's on the table to cut the overall budget for research for NIH by 40%, four zero.”
Huberman: Microdosing psilocybin has no major therapeutic effect on depression
“The data on micro dosing psilocybin are basically clear that it's not known to have any major effect on major depression. Or some of the other things that psilocybin is being tested for clinically including major depression, PTSD, et cetera.”
Meta is buying a 49 percent stake in Scale AI for $15B
“Meta is paying fifteen billion. I thought it was 1415, something like that for a 49% stake in scale AI that pays out investors and employees. CEO Alex Wang is leaving to join Meta and head up a super intelligence lab.”
Lovett: Shutting down cell networks impairs Russian military coordination on WhatsApp
“This is like a dirty little secret that nobody talks about. You know, yes, you have your military systems that are protected and all that, But a lot of coordination is happening through WhatsApp, a lot of coordination on, and so all of a sudden you turn off th…”