The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,353 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 20 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hays: Reports indicate Claude was used in Maduro raid planning
“There was reporting last week that Claude was leveraged in some way during the Maduro planning, the planning of the Maduro raid.”
Coogan: Anthropic reached $14 billion in revenue after 10x yearly growth
“We've all seen the revenue chart, 10 X growth four years in a row, a hundred million, a billion, now fourteen billion.”
Hays: AI job cuts are mostly tech companies copying Twitter's layoffs
“I mean, to date, the AI job loss has just been primarily from companies, I would say, still processing the Twitter acquisition. And saying, hey, we just, we need 50% fewer people here.”
Huberman: Predisposed Young Males Risk Irreversible Cannabis-Induced Psychosis
“There is a population of people, especially young males who have a predisposition to schizophrenia or bipolar, meaning they have a first relative with those conditions. That are very high risk for cannabis-induced psychosis, some of which doesn't reverse, whic…”
Thornton: US lost 30 MQ drones in CENTCOM's Operation Rough Rider
“The U.S. Conducted an operation last year called Rough Rider and CENTCOM, and it, We lost something crazy, like, 30 MQs, like, 30 Preds and Reapers and that was not against as nearly as sophisticated of an adversary”
Thornton: U.S. runs out of ammunition in days during war games
“In war games, we run out of ammo and literally a couple of days.”
Thornton: China produces cruise missiles orders of magnitude faster than US
“Regardless, you're talking about orders of magnitude more production than the U.S. Has right now, which is, serves as a wake-up call.”
Hays: OpenAI officially rolled out ads in ChatGPT today
“Apparently OpenAI actually rolled out ads in ChatGPT today.”
Bishop: China's AI strategy prioritizes economic diffusion over frontier models
“They have like this AI plus plan they rolled out a couple months ago, where it's really to embed AI throughout the economy and throughout society. And so they're not really focused on As much as sort of getting to AGI and these massive models, they're really m…”
Bishop: State Department blocks Commerce-approved NVIDIA H200 sales to China
“What's interesting, right, I think it was the Financial Times reported last week that even though, ah, like, the Department of Commerce has signed off on the licenses to sell to China the H 200, that the Department of State, or the State Department, which has …”
Bishop: China manufactures capable inference chips but cannot produce training chips
“China has enough, like they can actually make, looks like decent inference chips. They just can't make the chips they need for training, right?”
O'Laughlin: Anthropic's margins are lower than perceived due to lack of free users
“Honestly, Anthropic has no free users, or like on a relative basis, so their margins are ironically like, kind of on a like-to-like basis, kind of not as good as you think.”
O'Laughlin: Nvidia H100 and B200 GPU pricing has firmed up massively
“Like at this point H 100 pricing has massively firmed up. B 200 pricing definitely has super firmed up. And like, hey, there's clearly demand.”
Altman: Critics claiming AI scaling is slowing or topping out have been wrong
“And for all of the concern people have about it's gonna, like, top out, or it's slowing down, or whatever, like, no one's been right about that. I mean, sometimes they, it looked like they were for a couple of months as we digested a new model or came to a new…”
Altman: Chips are currently AI's primary bottleneck over energy
“It goes back and forth. Right now, again, it's chips.”
Hays: Anthropic falsely implies ChatGPT display ads will manipulate model responses
“As the ads that are coming to chat to be to your effectively display ads. Everybody in the industry by now should know this, yet this campaign implies that the ads will influence the response and that you cannot trust it.”
Patel: Power is less than 10% of total AI cluster cost
“Power is less than 10% of the cost of the cluster. Right? So, so like, it's that 90% you're not saving anything on.”
Patel: Blackwell GPU failure rates sit at 10%–15% versus Hopper's 5%
“Over time, like, Hopper's now at five percent, but Blackwell's still 10 to 15%. Actually started out higher than that.”
Patel: xAI and Anthropic compute leads bet on space data centers by 2028
“Well, there's a bet, right, between basically the head of compute of XAI and the head of compute of Anthropic. And the bet is, what percentage of worldwide data center capacities in space by the end of 28, and the bar is one percent. And so the XAI guy is like…”
Patel: Meta licensed all of Midjourney's code, data, and models
“Meta's licensed all of Midjourney's code, data, models.”
Huang: Nvidia never promised $100B in one OpenAI round
“No, we never said we were going to invest a hundred billion dollars in one round. That never was said.”
Coogan: SpaceX is planning an IPO raising up to $50B at $1.5T valuation
“SpaceX is planning an IPO that could raise as much as fifty billion and value the company at 1.5 trillion.”
Hays: Saudi Arabia Raised $10B From Qatar After UAE Declined
“They apparently asked for something like ten billion from the Qataris and the UAE. Qataris threw in 10 B. Okay. Allegedly the UAE did not.”
DOJ Opens Criminal Investigation into Deel Over Rippling Espionage Allegations
“The Justice Department opened a criminal investigation. Grand jury subpoenas were sent out in recent weeks.”
OpenAI Chair Bret Taylor admits AI is 'probably a bubble'
“Opening eye chair, Brad Taylor, says AI is quote, probably a bubble, expects a corruption in the coming years.”
Coogan: Blue Owl private credit fund received redemption requests for 15% of shares
“One managed by Blue Owl got redemptions for about 15% of its shares.”
Coogan: SpaceX is hiring BofA, Goldman, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley for IPO
“SpaceX is set to hire Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley to lead its IPO.”
Kuaishou claims its Kling AI video platform is gross margin positive
“Interestingly, Kwai Show claims that Kling is gross margin positive.”
Amodei: Anthropic rarely faces Chinese AI models in enterprise contract bids
“When we go out, when we're you know, competing against other companies for enterprise contracts, We see, just honestly and candidly, we see Google, and we see OpenAI. Every once in a while, we see a couple other US players. I have almost never lost a deal, los…”
Musk Legal Team Seeks $134B in Damages from OpenAI
“It's gonna be a hundred and thirty four billion dollars in damages is what Elon is seeking. Musk's legal team argues that his early funding and involvement materially contributed to OpenAI's rise, which is now valued at five hundred billion, and he wants a sli…”
Multiple Thinking Machines employees and three co-founders return to OpenAI
“He says more thinking machine Employees are in the process of joining OpenAI after three of the startup's co-founders rejoined yesterday.”
Hayes: Jensen Huang stated he does not care about California billionaire tax
“Jensen came out yesterday and said he doesn't care about California's proposed billionaire tax. Jensen Huang said he wasn't worried about a potential tax on billionaires in California breaking from a cadre of ultra wealthy residents who have spoken out against…”
Hays: OpenAI urges White House to invest in Stargate supercomputing initiative
“In a letter to the White House sent this AM, this was yesterday, OpenAI encourages the federal government, government to invest in or contract with initiatives like OpenAI's Stargate to secure compute for public research.”
Coogan: Court ruled Apple fees must match actual link-facilitation costs
“Anyway, the court ruled that Apple can't do that anymore. They can only collect fees that are in line with actual costs of facilitating links.”
Coogan: Disney is investing $1 billion in OpenAI and licensing IP to Sora
“Disney, which is investing one billion dollars in OpenAI and is going to license their characters for use in Sora.”
Hays: Disney accuses Google of massive copyright infringement with AI models
“As Disney has gone into business with OpenAI, the Mouse House is accusing Google of copyright infringement on massive scale, using AI models and services to commercially exploit and distribute infringing images and videos.”
Coogan: Nvidia Can Export H200 Chips to China with 25% US Tax
“Now Nvidia can sell to China, but they got to pay 25% to Uncle Sam.”
Trump will allow Nvidia H200 sales to China for 25% cut
“Trump says that the United States will allow Nvidia H 200 chip sales to China and get a 25% cut.”
Coogan: Rheinmetall factory outproduces entire US industry in essential artillery shells
“Earlier this year, Armin Papberger opened a new factory that will allow his company to produce more of an essential caliber of artillery shell than the entire US defense industry combined.”
Chen: OpenAI has internal models matching Gemini 3 and better successors coming
“Just looking purely at the benchmarks, you know, we actually felt quite confident you know, we have models internally that perform at the level of Gemini three, and we're pretty confident that we will release them soon, and we can release successor models that…”
Hays: ChatGPT daily active users fell 6% following Google Gemini launch
“In the two weeks since the Gemini launched, ChatGPT unique daily active users, a seven-day average, are down six percent.”
Jeffery: LED light causes retinal mitochondria to deteriorate in real time
“The light found in LEDs, when we use them, certainly we'll be using them on the retiny looking at mice, we can watch the mitochondria gently go downhill.
They're far less responsive.
They, their membrane potentials are coming down.
The mitochondria are not bre…”
Sergey Brin admits Google's Gemini image issues stemmed from inadequate testing
“You know, we definitely messed up on the image generation and I think it was mostly due to just like not thorough testing.”
Gurman: Apple considered buying Perplexity due to Google antitrust fears
“First, on the perplexity, when I was the one who broke that, that was real. That did not come from perplexity. The idea there was Apple was sort of scared out of its mind that it was going to lose this Google search deal. It was a very real possibility the jud…”
Gurman: Apple explored acquiring European AI startup Mistral
“I do believe they continue to be on the hunt for smaller AI M&A deals. In addition to perplexity, they looked at Mistral which developed their own LLMs and related technology out of Europe.”
No space data center company has actually solved thermal heat dissipation
“Dissipating heat in space is insanely hard. And anyone that says they figured it out right now, like they have not figured it out.”