The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Knoop: Zapier never spent its $1M seed round from 2012
“It was about a million bucks back in 2012. We never spent the money. By the time we actually got the round closed, figured out who we wanted to hire, got the payroll started, like revenue had caught up. And so literally I think you could trace every dollar we …”
Mike Knoop Apr 6, 2025 ▶ 26:22 Mike Knoop (Arc Prize) on Why Scaling AI Won’t Get Us to AGI
Insight
Knoop: AI Agent Failure Rates Make Unsupervised Automation Unviable
“Like, hey, I get the hype, but like, they just, they're not reliable enough yet. You know, they don't work two out of 10 times, and that just doesn't work for these unsupervised automation products.”
Mike Knoop Apr 6, 2025 ▶ 1:02 Mike Knoop (Arc Prize) on Why Scaling AI Won’t Get Us to AGI
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