The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 57 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Elon Musk: Tesla will probably have to build a gigantic chip fab
“I can't see any other way to get to the volume of chips that, that we're looking for. So, I think we're probably gonna have to build a gigantic chip app.”
Sam Lessin: Tesla is worth a fraction of its price on fundamentals
“You know, what does Tesla work from a DCF perspective? We talked about public markets and how you value these things. Not a fraction of what it's traded at, right?”
Groom: Waymo is far better than Tesla despite having fewer cars
“Tesla has this, Incredible advantage with how much data they're collecting and passively, yet Waymo is so much better so far, and it has so many fewer cars on the roads.”
Tesla and Comma AI possess the only scalable autonomous driving architectures
“You can actually go end to end and have a machine learning model from start to finish, just look at the images and decide what the output should be. Just translate from, if you see this, apply braking pressure. If you see this, apply the accelerator. If you se…”
Coogan: Tesla Acquisition Eliminates Musk's Operational Pay Milestones
“If Tesla undergoes a change of control, essentially, if Tesla is acquired, the operational requirements disappear. You no longer have to hit a million robotaxis or a million optimists to unlock those new tranches of stock for Elon. If there's a change of contr…”
Coogan: China controls 85% of the global humanoid robotics market
“So 5000 units were delivered from each unitary and adubot. By comparison, U.S. Companies, including Tesla and figure, shipped only a few hundred robots each, if that. China is also estimated to control about 85% of the global humanoid robotics market, and also…”
Coogan: Legacy Car Companies Are 10 Years Behind Tesla in Autonomy
“Every car company is, like, 10 years behind Tesla. It's crazy that no one, that they haven't been able to figure out how to just, like, clone FSD into Rivian, and GM has Super Cruise, which is nowhere near as effective, because it only works on certain roads.”
Gurley: Debt and leverage increase failure risk, notably in data centers
“There was near death with Tesla many times, and it's a lot easier to get in those difficult situations when you're using debt and leverage, which we're seeing all over these data centers.”
DeMuro: Legacy automakers have basically caught up to Tesla on self-driving
“I don't find Tesla self-driving to be like considerably better. Now that I've been on It's other cars. Every, basically everybody has caught up.”
Elon Musk's new Tesla pay package could lead to merging xAI.
“Part of setting up this pay package could set up a scenario where XAI gets just merged into Tesla and it becomes a standalone. It just all gets rolled in.”
Hays: Tesla could potentially scale robotaxis 1,000 times faster than Waymo
“They could potentially scale a thousand times faster than Waymo. It's all just going to come down to, Safety and what's actually going on behind the scenes.”
Car Dealership Guy: Tesla is the only automaker to succeed at DTC retail
“And frankly, Tesla is the only one that has really done a great job at it, or sure, maybe Rivian as well.
But there's been other plenty of examples on the legacy side that they simply have not been able to do it successfully with launching like a DTC or someth…”
Hays: Tesla vehicles emit high EMF levels, especially in the backseat
“Tesla's just emit like a ridiculous amount of EMF which is, you know, sort of low level radiation. A lot of people say that it doesn't Have any negative effects. But there's quite a lot of evidence that it might. And you can actually go on YouTube and just sea…”
Coogan: $8.5T Acquisition Triggers Full 423M Share Pay Package for Musk
“If that figure reached 8.5 trillion, all 12 tranches Tronches could qualify, putting Musk in line for the full four hundred and twenty three million share award without Tesla ever having to accomplish many of the pay packages operational milestones.”
Coogan: Tesla Could Build 1M Robotaxis in One to Two Years
“Over a year or two, they could probably manufacture a million robo-taxis, and I think the technology is pretty much there.”
Coogan: US would be 10 years behind in EVs without Elon Musk
“Like, yeah, GM had the EV-one. There were a couple other companies that were sort of like testing things, but we'd probably be 10 years behind if he hadn't sort of like sheer force of willed that into existence.”
Coogan: Cybercabs will eventually replace consumer car purchasing entirely
“And probably, you know, I do think over time, like, less and less trim levels, and then eventually it's just cyber cabs, and no one's buying cars anymore.”
Hays: Tesla is transitioning Fremont to produce 1M Optimus robots yearly
“Elon and Tesla are transitioning their Fremont Facility to make Optimus. And they plan to scale that facility up to be able to make a million of these things a year on a relatively near term time horizon.”
Tesla's Texas refinery can supply lithium for over 500,000 EVs annually
“The single refinery can supply lithium for over 500,000 EVs per year, and directly challenges China's 60% grip on global lithium refining.”
Tesla built its Texas lithium refinery in just 19 months
“It went from groundbreaking to first production in just 19 months, an unheard of timeline at this scale.”
Tesla finalizes Chinese suppliers for Optimus V3 mass production
“The mass production audit for Tesla's Optimus V three has been completed and seven Chinese companies have been finalized as core suppliers. Operating as tier one partners, these firms will manufacture critical components and support key assembly processes. The…”
The Magnificent Seven tech stocks, excluding Tesla, currently have reasonable valuations
“Mag seven minus Tesla have reasonable valuations, and the hyperscalers have more demand than they can handle.”
DeMuro: Tesla Roadster will not launch anywhere near $200,000
“I don't think the Roadster is going to come anywhere near 200, just based on, we've got a lot of inflation, Elon's missed those, Tesla's missed those price targets before, et cetera.”
Coogan: Andrej Karpathy broke AI consensus by projecting a decade of agents
“Even though he's worked at OpenAI, even though he's worked at Tesla, he broke rank, he went on the Dwarkesh Patel show, and said, you know what, I think we're more in a decade of agents. I think AGI might not be right around the corner. He took a contrarian st…”
Coogan: Andrej Karpathy Basically Invented Tesla Self-Driving
“It's a glowing review of Tesla self-driving from the man who basically invented it and started the whole Sort of the whole process.”
Hays: Musk's brand legitimizes NSFW AI spending for mainstream users
“The unique thing about this launch is that there has never, you know, clearly many people around the world spend money on OnlyFans or other NSFW content, and, but Elon has never created a product for those type of people. And so I think the sort of latent dema…”
Coogan: Robotaxi success is an industrial scaling problem, not a technology problem
“Scale really matters. It's more of like an industrial question than a technology question at this point, and, ah, yeah, they seem really set up for it.”
Hays: Elon Musk's infrastructure track record makes xAI a standout
“The reason to be extra bullish on XAI is that Elon is the only founder mode model, you know, CEO. I don't know if he's actually CEO or, but whatever chairman, at least who has done large scale infrastructure projects over and over and over the factories at Tes…”
Coogan: Tesla will finally deliver the new Roadster in 2025
“I think this is the year he's going to deliver it. It's been forever delayed, but now like everything's clear. Stocks at all time highs. Like he's got all the approvals and stuff. Like he needs a new halo car.”
Tesla will soon manufacture and deliver the delayed second-generation Roadster
“I'm also extremely bullish on the Tesla roadster second generation. You get them the allocation. Now I think it's going to happen. It's been way delayed, but Elon is on top of the world. The stock's ripping. He, Knows where the regulation is going. I think he'…”
Comma AI's hardware outperforms factory driver-assistance systems from Mercedes, BMW, and Audi
“Like, it is so much better than the stock system in Mercedes, BMW, Audi, everything except for Tesla. It's way better. It keeps you dead center in the lane.”
Coogan: Autonomous vehicles will become a polarized culture issue
“Tesla is the American competitor to everything that Waymo will be doing, and it will become a culture issue.”
Tesla's current Full Self-Driving system can easily navigate enclosed tunnel networks
“The current Tesla, like full self-driving system could easily do that. No problem. And is like, that's kind of what's, what, what's happening in the Vegas.”
Tesla Could Crush Lucid With Slight Upgrades to Its Vehicle Interiors
“And Lucid Air kind of came in as, like, the top upper market, but they could just crush Lucid with, like, a slight tweak to the interior.”
Hays: A SpaceX thruster-equipped Tesla Roadster has 10,000 potential buyers
“If Tesla comes out with a roadster that has a SpaceX, it's like basically Merlin engine on it. Some type of SpaceX engine, there's probably 10,000 buyers for that car.”
Baker: Owned 15% of Nvidia and 10% of Tesla Under $2B Caps
“Well, I did own 15% of the video when it was a sub two billion dollar market cap, but I owned 10% of Tesla when it was a sub two billion dollar market cap.”
Coogan: Ferrari Luce has 330-mile range despite large battery
“330 miles, despite an unusually large battery. The latest releases from BMW and Volvo run for more than 500 miles. The Lucid Air Sapphire is over 500, and many Teslas can get up into the 400 something range.”
SpaceX's rumored $1.75T valuation would surpass Tesla's $1.2T market cap
“It is a wild timeline that SpaceX, if it goes out at 1.75 trillion will be bigger than Tesla, which is sitting around 1.2 trillion these days.”
Cosgrove: Musk Tried Absorbing DeepMind in 2014 and OpenAI in 2018
“He tried to absorb DeepMind into Tesla in 2014, then OpenAI in 2018.”
Cuban: Testing Tesla Full Self-Driving Terrified Me
“I have a Tesla, and I upgraded for a couple months, and it terrified the shit out of me.”
Hays: Regulated businesses and physical-world industries remain safe from AI commoditization
“If AI commoditizes software, what's actually safe? Regulated, liability-bearing businesses. Someone has to be on the hook. Anything touching the physical world. Hardware, manufacturing, energy. That's a kind of Tesla narrative.”
Most CEOs would reject Tesla-style compensation due to aggressive growth targets
“It's just that the targets are so aggressive that most CEOs don't think they would achieve them.”
Speculative Investing Is Necessary To Drive Innovations Like Tesla And SpaceX
“You need some speculation in the system. Like, we always say speculation is a dirty word or a bad word, but, you know, the original investors in SpaceX or in Tesla who probably thought the whole thing was insane were speculating. And you need some of that. You…”
Tesla Optimus made incredible progress after initial smoke and mirrors, says Vance
“Optimus, you know, to be honest, like when I first saw Optimus, I thought it was like very heavy on the smoke and mirrors and like they've made incredible progress as well.”
Coogan: Teslas Are Banned Near China's Forbidden City Over Camera Surveillance
“In fact, you can't drive a Tesla next to the Forbidden City because Teslas have cameras on them, and they don't want Tesla sending that footage back.”
Coogan: Teslas Are Prohibited Near China's Forbidden City Over Camera Mapping
“You know that in China you can't drive Teslas near, Tesla sells very well in China, but you can't drive Teslas near the Forbidden City because they know that they have cameras and they don't want Tesla mapping. Yeah. That area.”