why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Coogan: Flawless Hardware-Software Integration Requires Trillion-Dollar Scale
“In order to do the absolute, like, top-tier software engineering where stuff just works, like, you actually have to be a trillion-dollar company, like Apple. A ten-billion-dollar company just can't do it. Especially if it's an older company.”
What-if
Hays: Apple could have captured 10% to 20% of $100B audio market
“They probably, it's a hundred billion dollar annual revenue opportunity, and Apple could have probably gotten 20% of that, or 10, 10% of that at least, so it wouldn't have been as big as AirPods.”
Opinion
Hays: Sonos can definitely remain a billion-dollar business if software improves
“I think if they just make smarter, smart speakers, continue to focus on design, actually get their software right. There's definitely a billion dollar revenue business here.”
Opinion
Coogan: Sonos Mastered Hardware but Failed on Software Execution
“Sonos delivered on the hardware side. They did the hard part and then they just couldn't get the app to work, which is crazy.”
What-if
Hays: Apple acquiring Sonos would have been great for consumers
“It's funny because it would have been great for consumers in so many ways if Apple had acquired Sonos. Because Apple is the best in the world at making it seamless to set up a device.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Hays: Apple will not acquire Sonos
“I think they're not going to get bought by Apple because Apple could be like, well, why don't we spend a billion dollars developing a better speaker and sell it through our thousands of stores?”
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: 93% of Sonos speakers sold over 13 years remain active
“93% of Sonos speakers that sold in the last 13 years are active today.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jan 2025
Coogan: Sonos Admitted It Missed the Smart Speaker Wave Until Mid-2016
“Sonos had never considered building its own voice assistant, and the smart speaker era took them by surprise. McFarlane later admitted that they were late to recognize the impact of voice in mid-twenty 16.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Sonos suffered a 24% drop in revenue in May
“In May, their revenue, they had a 24% drop in revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Sonos Split Its Platform into the Legacy S1 and New Apps
“They literally have the S one app
And then the Sonos app and the S one app is for older systems.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Sonos does over $1 billion in annual revenue
“And now they do over a billion dollars a year in business.”