why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Perplexity won't significantly outvalue Snapchat in two years
“Search Feels like it'll be a winner take, take all market, and it's, they're not gonna, you know, two years from now, if they're sitting at thirty million monthly actives, or even a multiple of that, it's hard to see it, you know, being worth, ah, you know, si…”
Opinion
Hays: Snapchat will never make money and acts as employee enrichment scheme
“Spiegel's actually somebody I would like to see step away from Snapchat. It's never going to make any money. There's a sort of an enrichment scheme for employees.”
Assertion Contradicted
Misra: TikTok spent around $100M a month advertising on Snapchat
“They were running, like, a hundred million dollars a month of ads on Snapchat, right? Initially, right? When they were not, there was no presence.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Meta and YouTube Shorts will capture 99% of TikTok's time
“I really think like 99% of the tech talk. Time spent on that app will flow to Meta, YouTube Shorts, and then Snapchat, I do think will be a beneficiary, but maybe they capture five percent of like the bleed over.”
Disclosure
Laffont: Coatue Led Snapchat's Series C at $1.5B Valuation
“Our most successful deal is one that broke all of the rules, ah, that I just laid out, which was Snapchat. Where I think we led the series C in that, an evaluation of about a billion and a half.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sean Frank: Evan Spiegel is super involved in Snap's ad platform
“Dude, Evan Spiegel, super involved in the ad platform. I've had lunch and breakfast with him probably three or four different times. And he's just like, how can we get these ads to work? That's all he cares about.”
Assertion Supported
Hayes: Snapchat's creator fund paid out $1M per day
“Snapchat was also, they launched their whole creator fund and they were paying out like a million dollars a day”
Assertion Partly supported
John Coogan: Evan Spiegel and Snap Own a Private Boeing 737
“It turns out that N three E an airliner seven 37 configured as a private jet is owned by Snapchat and Evan Spiegel. The operator is listed as S E logistics. Short for Spiegel Evan. Snapchat owns the largest private hangar at Van Nuys airport.”