The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Coogan: World models will compete directly with Roblox and Fortnite long term
“Definitely competitive in the long term. In the medium term, like, super good for prototyping and communication, and this is a key flow to, okay, you have an idea, and you don't just wanna You know, generate a basic image of the game that you're trying to buil…”
Baszucki predicts Roblox will capture 10% of all global gaming activity
“We believe Roblox will get to 10% of all gaming running on the platform.”
Cohen: eBay Sells Digital Goods but Handles Delivery and Fraud Poorly
“In terms of the digital marketplace, and they are already doing it to a certain extent. I mean, like, all kinds of Roblox digital items are bought and sold, but and I've actually bought them for my kids, and there's so much fraud on the platform. Like, we're b…”
Coogan: Roblox Was the Real Metaverse All Along, Not Fortnite or VR
“The metaverse was actually just Roblox this whole time. Not Fortnite, not VR.”
Coogan: Roblox Captured 67% of Non-China Gaming Spend Growth
“67% of global non-China spending growth in the gaming industry last year went to Roblox.”
Hays: Roblox and Fortnite network effects will endure against AI world models
“I think Roblox and Fortnite will prove that they have real network effects. And it's going to still make sense to create new games within these existing ecosystems.”
Roblox runs most GPU workloads on bare metal, bursting at peak
“We are building out our GPU fleet. As well, we already, as I said, have 400 models running, and we'll do that in the exact same thing we do with our core and edge data centers, run the majority of the time on our own bare metal, complement it with burst at pea…”
Baszucki predicts the rise of nested creator economies within Roblox experiences
“I think where this goes is there are quote games on Roblox that have individual creators within them that may actually make money being a creator within an environment made by someone on Roblox, that's a really good long-term, you know, essentially dual layer …”
Baszucki: Roblox will launch real-time 4D AI generation for live gameplay
“We are starting, and very shortly, we're going to offer what we call inexperienced It's four D generation, which is it literally the ability to make a game that you or I are playing in and we can prompt and ask for some type of vehicle, for example, or some ty…”
Baszucki: Vibe coding is an intermediate step toward real-time 4D dreaming
“I think vibe coding is maybe an intermediate step to what we would call real time, three D or four dimensional dreaming with other players, which is literally you and I are walking around an environment talking or doing things. And as we're chatting over there…”
Masad: AI game aggregators like Roblox won't reach trillion-dollar valuations
“And the idea that, you know, it's gonna be a Roblox. I don't see that as interesting. I mean, Roblox is a great company. You know, maybe Roblox is the aggregator for vibe coded games, but I think it's really not the big prize is like, you want to build a trill…”
Hays: Hindenburg's Roblox short report is a stretch
“I think the issue with Hindenburg is this seems like a business that's way more impactful if you're doing One report every two years and just taking these like massive, very concentrated position. Whereas like this almost feels like a stretch.”
Hays: Roblox Quarterly Engagement Equals Steam, PlayStation, and Fortnite Combined
“Roblox had a hundred and fifty million daily users in Q three of 2025. Its quarterly engagement is now equal to Steam, PlayStation, and Fortnite combined.”
Coogan: Roblox Monetization Per Minute Is 5x Lower Than TikTok
“Their monetization on a per minute basis is, I think, like five times lower than other platforms, like if you comp it to TikTok or Instagram”
Baszucki: Roblox rejects nonlinear developer payout accelerators to ensure platform fairness
“We we've done something really right, I think, from the start, and there's a real temptation to do nonlinear functions, accelerators. If a dev gets really big, should we pay them, you know, more per hour, per minute, per robot than others? We've really stayed …”
Baszucki: Roblox now sees about 150 million daily active users
“Every day, about a hundred and fifty million people now come to Roblox, and they play, they communicate, they hang out, not in games made by Roblox, but literally in experiences made by a huge Creator community”
Baszucki: Roblox bookings and DAUs are up 70% year-over-year
“Our year-on-year bookings is growing 70%, and our year-on-year DAUs are growing 70%.”
Baszucki: Roblox will pay well over $1B to its creators in 2025
“Well over a billion dollars will flow back to Roblox creators this year.”
Baszucki: Seven Roblox titles hit 10M DAU in Q3, five newly launched
“It's why I believe in the last year we had seven experiences hitting ten million daily active users at some point in Q three. And I believe five of them were new in the last 12 months.”
Bosworth: Gen AI lowers the creation barrier set by Roblox and Minecraft
“You've got Roblox, you've got Minecraft, they're awesome tools, you've got tremendous communities there of creators, but there is a ceiling on how good the rendering can be in those platforms, which I know, and it's also, you have to be a certain level of crea…”
Jordy: Roblox stock dropped 30% following usage decline and short-seller report
“Roblox, which that, that what's that research Hindenburg research had done a takedown on, they reported a drop in, in sort of usage and like, 30% of the stock got wiped out.”
Baszucki: Roblox experience Grow a Garden hit 25 million concurrent players
“In August, Grow a Garden, one of the more recent big games on Roblox, hit twenty-five million concurrence.”
Baszucki: Roblox employs multiple PhD economists to manage platform economy
“It's really serious. We have a lot of PhDs. We have great econ brains.”
Baszucki: Roblox operates over 400 proprietary AI models for platform infrastructure
“Behind the scenes, over the last four to five years, we've built out a real substantial offering of models we've built ourselves. We have over 400 models, teams that are building everything from cutting edge voice and tech safety models, teams that are buildin…”