why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Stargate $500B figure represents total cost of ownership not upfront capex
“We believe this project is being measured on the total cost of ownership, not capital expenditures, i.e. The one hundred billion and the five hundred billion is TCO, which includes the capital expenditures for data centers, servers, Networking costs, power cos…”
Opinion
Coogan: Stargate joint venture is incrementally negative for Microsoft long-term
“Microsoft is the biggest loser. Microsoft is largely left on the sidelines as OpenAI utilizes another infrastructure partner. As such, and Adele stated, all I know is I'm good for my eighty billion. Microsoft's recent blog post stated the facts of the partners…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hays: Stargate consortium lacks even 20% of $500B committed
“It's clear to everyone involved that they certainly don't have 20% of the five hundred billion just sitting in an account. Like, that money has clearly not been committed.”
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: First $100 Billion of Project Stargate Goes to Texas
“We know the first hundred billion will be spent in Abilene, and that there will be more campuses developed for the remaining four hundred billion.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hays: Stargate's $500B Plan Dwarfs Total 2024 US Startup Funding
“The companies are committing a hundred billion to the venture with plans to invest up to five hundred billion over the next four years, which actually seems- To put this into perspective, in twenty-twenty-four, I believe there was a hundred and sixty-eight bil…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Elon Musk will have to out-raise Project Stargate
“I think it's going to be incredibly interesting to see what Elon's reaction is going to be because he's definitely going to have to out raise.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Coogan: SoftBank will likely sell part of Arm stake to fund Stargate
“SoftBank will likely have to sell off a chunk of its stake in the company to fund Stargate. We think investors are largely missing this point and mistakenly view this announcement as materially incrementally good news.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Coogan: Stargate Campuses Will Be Built for Distributed AI Training
“Even more impressive, all these data center campuses will be, will continue to be built out with the aim of distributed training.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Trump is not committing federal money to Project Stargate
“The, like Trump is not committing money to this. He was just like, This is cool.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Masayoshi Son claimed he overdelivered $500B pledge to Trump
“And Masa had very much framed it as before he, you know, apparently the conversation went, if you get, if you win, I'll bring you a hundred billion dollars. And Masa was saying like, I came back with 500.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: OpenAI Will Run Its Own Cluster Management Software for Stargate
“OpenAI will main control of operations and run almost all of its own cluster management software.”