The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Coogan: Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Build Prediction Market App 'Arena'
“Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction markets app, which is a wild shift. The experimental app internally called Arena would be independent of Facebook and Instagram. It could compete for attention with Polymarket and Kalshi, the biggest prediction ma…”
Polymarket Gives Google 46% Odds for Top AI Model by Year-End
“Google is still the polymarket, which company has the best AI model end of 2025. So December 31st, there's been one and a half million in volume, and Google is still sitting comfortably at 46% chance of being at the Top of LM arena at the end of the year.”
Hays: Polymarket puts only a 32% chance on Fordow being destroyed before July
“The Fordow nuclear facility destroyed by before July. Poly market is only sitting at a 32% chance still on four million in volume.”
Coogan: Polymarket odds of Iran getting a 2025 nuke hit daily high after strikes
“Bombing of the nuclear facility did not push down the market odds of Iran possessing a nuclear weapon in twenty-twenty-five. In fact, it's at the highest level of the day.”
Coogan: Polymarket gives Palisades fire containment a 1% chance by Friday
“The poly market on will the Palisades fire be contained by Friday. It's down at like one percent.”
Hayes: Kalshi burned $1M daily on Facebook ads to catch Polymarket
“So Cal, she was spending a million dollars a day on Facebook. Just to get into the charts. Polymarket had a lot more organic adoption and organic media.”
Coogan: Polymarket captured 80% to 90% of 2024 election betting liquidity
“I think they got like, 80%, 90% liquidity on, around the election. Just complete power law outcome.”