The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Coogan: Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Build Prediction Market App 'Arena'
“Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction markets app, which is a wild shift. The experimental app internally called Arena would be independent of Facebook and Instagram. It could compete for attention with Polymarket and Kalshi, the biggest prediction ma…”
Coogan: 2028 election will pit JD Vance against AOC or Buttigieg
“And so my bet that I would put on Polymarket right now is that The twenty-twenty-eight election is between JD Vance and AOC, or JD Vance and Buttigieg, because AOC and Buttigieg both can actually sit and be real people for several hours, and AOC's done it with…”
Coogan: Wildfire prediction markets provide valuable public information
“I think it's actually still valuable to know, okay, I shouldn't expect the fire to be put out”
Coogan: Tech industry is entering the golden age for crypto products
“We are truly entering the golden age for crypto products. Couldn't agree more. We're seeing this with Polymarket.”
Polymarket Gives Google 46% Odds for Top AI Model by Year-End
“Google is still the polymarket, which company has the best AI model end of 2025. So December 31st, there's been one and a half million in volume, and Google is still sitting comfortably at 46% chance of being at the Top of LM arena at the end of the year.”
Hays: Polymarket puts only a 32% chance on Fordow being destroyed before July
“The Fordow nuclear facility destroyed by before July. Poly market is only sitting at a 32% chance still on four million in volume.”
Coogan: Polymarket odds of Iran getting a 2025 nuke hit daily high after strikes
“Bombing of the nuclear facility did not push down the market odds of Iran possessing a nuclear weapon in twenty-twenty-five. In fact, it's at the highest level of the day.”
Coogan: Polymarket gives Palisades fire containment a 1% chance by Friday
“The poly market on will the Palisades fire be contained by Friday. It's down at like one percent.”
Hayes: Kalshi burned $1M daily on Facebook ads to catch Polymarket
“So Cal, she was spending a million dollars a day on Facebook. Just to get into the charts. Polymarket had a lot more organic adoption and organic media.”
Coogan: Polymarket captured 80% to 90% of 2024 election betting liquidity
“I think they got like, 80%, 90% liquidity on, around the election. Just complete power law outcome.”
Coogan: Polymarket optimizes for accurate prices while TV news optimizes for watch time
“If you're CNN, you are incentivized to sell ads and get Watch time and keep people watching. And if you're polymarket, you're incentivized for liquidity and providing correct prices. And so it's just a very different like incentive structure.”
Startup Prediction Markets Will Severely Lack Liquidity for Series A Companies
“And so I could imagine this, but for a lot of startups, like the liquidity is just not going to be there because there just aren't going to be that many people that care about some series A company that like is got some VC platform teams have entire”
Polymarket Odds of Astronomer CEO Ouster Sit at 38%
“There's a polymarket today on whether he'll be out by the end of next week. Ah, odds are currently sitting around 38%.”
Hays: Polymarket Gives 1% Odds on Tesla Naming New CEO
“Yeah, it's at a one percent chance. As of today, so.”
Betting on Which Startup Becomes Most Valuable Is a Great Polymarket Use Case
“This is a good use case for Polymarket. You should be able to bet on what is the most, like, what's going to be like the most valuable company.”