why aren't all 35 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Snap Cancels Planned $400 Million Deal With Perplexity AI
“Four hundred million dollar deal with perplexity is no longer happening. I guess that's been pulled back on.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gurman: Apple explored acquiring European AI startup Mistral
“I do believe they continue to be on the hunt for smaller AI M&A deals. In addition to perplexity, they looked at Mistral which developed their own LLMs and related technology out of Europe.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gurman: Apple considered buying Perplexity due to Google antitrust fears
“First, on the perplexity, when I was the one who broke that, that was real. That did not come from perplexity. The idea there was Apple was sort of scared out of its mind that it was going to lose this Google search deal. It was a very real possibility the jud…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Perplexity won't significantly outvalue Snapchat in two years
“Search Feels like it'll be a winner take, take all market, and it's, they're not gonna, you know, two years from now, if they're sitting at thirty million monthly actives, or even a multiple of that, it's hard to see it, you know, being worth, ah, you know, si…”
Disclosure
Srinivas: Perplexity is building a browser to capture broad user context
“That's kind of one of the other reasons we wanted to build a browser is like, we want to get data even outside the app to better understand you. Because some of the prompts that people do in these AIs is It's purely work related. It's not like that personal. O…”
Disclosure
Perplexity will be pre-installed on Android phones as default assistant
“We are going to be partnering with a OEM. I think Bloomberg's already written about it. Perplexity will be pre-installed on the phones of that OEM, and we'll be able to, like, push notify all those users to set perplexity as the default assistant on the Androi…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Meta's AI Deployment Will Likely Hurt Google Search More Than Bing
“And so Meta's deployment probably hurts Google search more than Bing or perplexity ever will. Because people will just wind up searching in Facebook and Instagram.”
Prediction Held up
Gurman: Apple built an in-house AI search to rival Perplexity
“What they haven't talked about Is AI web search. And so the new Siri is also going to have a chat GPT perplexity competitor for things like deep research and summarizing search. That is going to be an Apple built, an Apple powered system.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Perplexity will take decades to reach three billion users
“It's like perplexity has probably like millions of users, but it's just gonna take
Decades, even at reasonable growth rate to hit three billion.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Perplexity AI's Valuation Is Estimated at $18 Billion
“So perplexes offers significantly more than its own valuation, which is estimated at eighteen billion.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hays: Bankers have not heard of Perplexity's rumored Google Chrome acquisition
“A little birdie just told me that they spoke to a number of bankers that have not heard of the perplexity deal, which I imagine as it firms up, if it firms up, they'll certainly hear about it.”
Disclosure
Wischoff: Beyond OpenAI, Claude, and Perplexity, consumer AI lacks daily stickiness
“I don't know that I found anything even personally sticky enough that I'm like every day, like, you know, like messing around with it. And I, well, I guess it's not fair. Like obviously like open AI, like Claude and perplexity. But I think like on the everyday…”
Disclosure
Srinivas: Perplexity will allow user thread publishing on Discover feed
“We have this thing called Discover and we're trying to increase the volume of content on Discover, and once we do that in an automatic way with curation to users interest. Like we're going to let some of the users pub try to like publish it to discover on thei…”
Disclosure
Srinivas: Perplexity submitted a bid to acquire TikTok US
“We, we've submitted our bid. We never expected to be the leading candidate or anything.”
Opinion
Coogan: Ads in LLM responses make sense and will work fine
“I think it actually makes a ton of sense to put ads in LLM responses, and it'll work just fine, and it's actually very easy.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Perplexity submitted a bid to acquire TikTok earlier in 2025
“Perplexity was also bidding on Tik Tok earlier this year.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Perplexity offered to keep Google as Chrome's default search engine
“Perplexity told Sundar Pichai as part of the proposed acquisition, it would maintain and support Chromium, the open source project that supports Chrome and other browsers. It also said it would continue placing Google as the default search engine within Chrome…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Odds of Perplexity acquiring Chrome are closer to 0% than 1%
“I would put the odds of this deal happening closer to zero percent than one percent.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hays: Bankers have not heard of Perplexity's rumored Chrome bid
“A little birdie just told me that they spoke to a number of bankers that have not heard of the perplexity deal”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Hays: Odds of Perplexity acquiring Chrome are closer to zero than 1%
“I would put the odds of this deal happening closer to zero percent than one percent.”
What-if
Srinivas: Launching Perplexity around GPT-4 would have been too late
“You want to build at the right moment where, like, kind of, like, how we built perplexity around the GPT 3.5 time, not GPT four time. It would have been too late then.”
Opinion
Srinivas: Apple considers Siri real estate too valuable to open up
“I would assume the latter.”
Opinion
Most consumers only use ChatGPT and have not heard of other apps
“We are living in a bubble, like they're, most people are only using chat GPT and they don't, they haven't even heard about like most of the other apps.”
Disclosure
Srinivas: Perplexity launched voice assistant early over waiting for perfection
“I'll literally read out to you the chat I had with our engineer who worked on this. Be good to launch and announce today, question mark. And then he's like, yes, still making improvements, but let's launch. And me like, do you want to address some of the onboa…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivas: AI subscription market will expand dramatically as agents perform tasks
“If AI start doing things, not just answering questions or writing code people will pay even more because they kind of think about it as hiring somebody. If you look at the amount of people, people pay for personal assistants, chiefs of, chief of staffs, person…”
Assertion Supported
Perplexity Launched an AI-Native Competitor to Google Shopping
“They launched their competitor to Google Shopping, and it's just much more AI native, much more driven by, take a picture.”
Assertion Contradicted
Coogan: Perplexity is making more money than MP3.com ever did
“And it's interesting because, I mean, Perplexity is 100% making more money than mp-three.com ever did.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Perplexity reached #1 overall in India's App Store
“Just one month ago on July, 18th, 25 perplexity reached number one overall in India's app store.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Srinivas: User retention from Perplexity's Super Bowl ad beat expectations
“The Super Bowl was good, like, in fact, like, the retention from people who came to the Super Bowl exceeded my expectations.”
Disclosure
Srinivas: Perplexity replaced a three-model agent pipeline with a single model
“Before O-three, the way we built, like, our agents, is there would be one model that gave, came up with a plan for the query, another model that would execute the plan by converting the plan to, like, Smaller queries, filtering links, calling searches, and the…”
Disclosure
Aravind Srinivas: Perplexity Will Keep Using Third-Party Models When Needed
“I think we'll continue to keep the same strategy, which is have a version of our product that can run with our own models, but not hinder or disrupt the user from this best experience that we can provide to them. If we're not able to do it with our own model, …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Super Bowl ad was mocked on X but drove mainstream Perplexity adoption
“Actually, if you notice the Superbowl tweets didn't actually matter on X, like most people made fun of it or didn't even engage with it, but it did help us get a lot of like mainstream normal people become aware of the app and use it.”
Disclosure
Srinivas: Perplexity aims to launch Comet browser by mid-May
“We've tried to scope it down and we're aiming to get it out by mid-May.”
Assertion Supported
Srinivas: Apple SDK allows integration with Calendar, Mail, Maps, and Music
“A lot of it is still exposed in the Apple SDK through the events kit. So that's how we got things done, like calendar, mail, reminders. These are all part of their SDK. So you can actually call it podcasts, Apple music that's Apple maps. All of these are possi…”
Disclosure
Srinivas: Perplexity plans to invest more in RL post-training this year
“The nice thing is a lot of open source code bases exist on how to replicate GRPO or PPO and post training these models. And we've been doing that work already. So that's where we plan to invest more resources into for this year.”