The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 59 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Karp: Primary risk to Palantir and tech is uninformed regulation and nationalization
“So the primary risk, honestly, to Palantir and a lot of these other countries is, and then it's going to be nationalized, before nationalized, it's going to be regulated by people who don't understand this.”
Palantir is the only real German-linked tech company created since SAP.
“The most important Germanic company. I hope someone from Germany is listening to this Compte aus Palo Alto is Peter Thiel und ich. It's like the only German company since SAP that's real. They won't listen to us.”
Karp: Palantir is the only real Germanic company built since SAP
“The most important Germanic company, I hope someone from Germany is listening to this kommt aus Palo Alto. It's Peter Thiel und ich. It's like the only German company since SAP that's real.”
Karp: Traditional SaaS models trick clients into parasitic lock-in
“You would never build a software downstream from value creation. It's all basically, how do I make the client feel like they're getting laid when they're getting fucked? That's the whole way you build a software business and our business.”
Karp: Defense tech competitors increase government budget allocation
“They increase the size of the market because de facto, nobody wants to find an underrated market where there's only one person. So like, if you're the one person, the percentage of the defense budget you can get is much smaller. And two, they set up a comparat…”
Karp: Business value correlates with the market's inability to understand it
“Your valuable, your value is pretty directly con convergent with people's inability to understand what you're doing. So it's like all these technologies are potentially commodifying everything. Okay. So if you are a business that is, you know, Not services, no…”
Alex Karp argues traditional software businesses extract value rather than creating it.
“You would never build a software downstream from value creation. It's all basically, how do I make the client feel like they're getting laid when they're getting fucked? That's the whole way you build a software business and our business.”
Palantir plans to reduce headcount despite increasing revenue, says Alex Karp.
“We are revenues going up. Our sales was going down. The number of people we plan to have in the future is less than now.”
Karp: Software should be priced downstream of actual value creation
“The logic of software should be We charge you something downstream of value creation. That sum is a percentage of the value we create. It's better for both sides because it's significantly less than the value creates. Good for us because there's a multiple on …”
Karp: Palantir has lifted millions of people into homeownership
“Palantir's lifted, one of the things I'm proudest about in the world is, We've lifted people from their mom's garage to their own house. Millions of people.”
Karp: Palantir plans to decrease total headcount in the future
“The number of people we plan to have in the future is less than now.”
Karp: Palantir will extract considerably more revenue per client
“We believe we're going to make more from people in the future than in the past. Sizibly more because it's like, why should we not capture part of the value that we help create?”
Karp: LLMs only create enterprise value within an ontology wrapper
“The value of LLM is when it's essentially in an ontology wrapper, because to actually create value, you have to be able to take the output, serialize it, and deserialize it in the context of the business. So the logic, actions, and security of the business, an…”
Palantir Encourages Every Employee to Tell Leadership Off to Their Face
“I always end the AMA by reminding people that Palantir is a flat place. What does flatness even mean? Well, to me, it means that every single employee is willing to tell me to fuck off to my face, and I am all say fuck off in unison out loud at the very end. I…”
Bartlett: OpenAI Should IPO Soon to Capitalize on Market Demand
“If I were open AI, I would try to get out sooner rather than later. Right. Cause I think there's this demand both from
Institutional and retail to have exposure to some of these things. And if you look, I mean Palantir's where they're trading, and obviously th…”
Karp: LLMs are putting Palantir's business on steroids
“They're totally putting our business on steroids. Like, without LLMs, nobody would be talking about our ontology, about Apollo managing secure exploits, about our ability to manage an enterprise, essentially, as turning all these companies into FDEs.”
Karp: U.S. military lethality comes from tech plus real-world operator experience
“What it makes America lethal, more so than any currently country, is like a combination of obviously the technology, which we're super interested in and believe are paying a huge part in but it's like 20 years of, like, operators figuring out what worked, what…”
Hays: Palantir's international deals justify Karp's massive private jet bill
“I might catch some flack for defending private aviation, but it just doesn't seem that crazy. The entire reason that Palantir is growing the way it is, is, like, they're doing deals in Japan. They're doing deals in, in the Middle East.”
Palantir expects to generate sizably more revenue per customer in the future.
“We believe we're going to make more from people in the future than in the past, sizably more, because it's like, why should we not capture part of the value that we helped create?”
Palantir is growing 10x faster in the United States than in Europe.
“Like we have 10 X growth in America compared to Europe, same people, same products, same everything.”
Karp: Palantir experiences 10x growth in the US compared to Europe
“Like we have 10 X growth in America compared to Europe, same people, same products, same everything.”
Karp: Palantir hits 93% US growth and 94 Rule of 40
“Everyone tells us to be super modest about 93% growth in the U.S. And 94 rule of 40.”
Karp: High-fidelity ontology combined with LLMs is very hard to replicate
“We also believe that if it, for more kind of like kind of architectural implementation, technical perspective, the value is in high fidelity data captured in, in ontology with FDs and where there's an enhancing factor with LLMs and that that's going to be very…”
Gallagher: Palantir is among rare tech firms unapologetically pro-US military
“Palantir was one of the rare companies that was unapologetically pro-American military, committed a hundred percent to enhancing deterrence, you know, willing to say that, like, we're the good guys, you know, the commies are the bad guys.”
Palantir Built Forward-Deployed Engineering Because Outsourcing Always Failed
“It's like we just developed this extreme ownership mentality because anytime we outsourced even an iota of responsibility, it blew up in our face. And that's, you can see for deployed engineering as like the extreme manifestation of that, that we're going to s…”
Sankar: Palantir Operates as an Artist Colony Without Certain Career Progression
“Really preserving what's at the core of this is like, this is an artist colony, not a factory. You know, I don't really know what your career progression is going to be. And if you want certainty on that, this is definitely not the right place”
Sankar: Major public projects depend on exceptional individual champions
“These projects working or not come down to a handful of really exceptional individuals being present, taking ownership and leading the way.”
Sankar: Over 300,000 blue-collar workers use Palantir software daily
“We have like more than 300,000 workers, blue collar workers who turn wrenches in our software every day, everything from the factory floors of Chrysler to every Airbus airframe, every HD Hyundai ship.”
Alex Karp cannot step down from Palantir to run for president
“The problem is that he's just running too, too important of a company to step back. I don't think he can do it.”
Coogan: Palantir flipped Raytheon to become world's biggest defense company
“Palantir's now the biggest defense company in the world. They flipped Raytheon finally. Crazy, a hundred and fifty billion dollar company.”
Hays: The 'forward deployed GP' venture model will become widespread
“I expect forward deployed GPs to come back, right? Because like it needs to, I mean, Founders Fund basically already does this.
[1535] John Coogan: I mean, it exists.
[1536] John Coogan: Yeah.
[1536] John Coogan: Trey is that.
[1538] Jordy Hays: And Delian.
…”
Palantir Is Potentially a Trillion-Dollar Company
“Yeah, I think there's, that's a potentially a trillion dollar company.”
Coogan: Alex Karp shifts toward Amodei's view on AI disrupting white-collar work
“Karp did seem like pretty shifted in his opinion of how AI would impact the economy. It was definitely, definitely an update to how he's thinking, definitely more in the Dario Amadei camp of a significant impact to white collar work.”
Coogan: Countless AI startups copy Palantir's forward-deployed engineer strategy
“You know, there are so many startups these days that are going after Palantir's market, competing in enterprise software, enterprise AI, forward deployed engineers. It's all a bunch of memes. Everyone's, Everyone's keying off of the Palantir strategy.”
Palantir achieved 93% US growth and a 94% Rule of 40.
“Everyone tells us to be super modest about 93% growth in the U.S. And 94 rule of 40.”
Karp: Palantir lacks capacity while prioritizing US defense and ontology
“At Palantir right now, in the US, the market that counts, we don't have the people. We don't have the time. We, orchestrating completely perfectly at Palantir, which of course we don't do, because we're like an artist colony, right? We don't have the time to, …”
Karp: Palantir has a huge retail investor base in Germany
“Honestly, we have a huge retail, crazy thing about Germany is a huge retail investor base. They don't admit it in public, but in private, they're like, keep going.”
Gallagher: NATO acquired Palantir's Maven Smart System
“Shout out to Nato for acquiring Maven Smart System, made by Pallature Technologies, no big deal.”
Sankar: Underreporting cyber warfare breeds defeatist acceptance of critical vulnerabilities
“Well, one of the most devastating consequences of it being so kind of below the waterline, something we don't want to talk about, is the normalization of, like, what can you do about it? A sort of nihilism and acceptance a pessimism that anything can be done a…”
Sankar: Multiple internal Palantir teams are building AI FTEs
“Like the coolest stuff that I've been seeing is like multiple teams internally at Palantir are building AI FDEs, and it's really compelling.”
Sankar: Palantir Sepsis Automation Halved Deaths at Tampa General
“We've automated sepsis monitoring at Tampa general, where they deaths from sepsis have reduced by half.”
Palantir Enabled AIG to Underwrite All Submissions in Under an Hour
“We've automated high, how AIG underwrites insurance. What used to take three weeks and you'd only get to 10 weeks, 10, 10% of your submissions. It takes less than an hour and you get to a hundred percent.”
Sankar: Digital twins act like CI checks to integrate enterprise value chains
“Where I think it gets to be really valuable is if you kind of thought about it like a CI check in programming, where it's like, I'm proposing a change to a system here. How can I understand it? Like, is that change going to work? What are the unintended conseq…”
Ramade: Palantir avoided competition by embedding deeply into customer problems
“And I think one of the things Palantir did so well is they were able to go so deep into a customer for so long that they encountered problems that for which there was very little competition for.”
Asparouhov: SpaceX and Palantir had to sue US government to win contracts
“Both SpaceX and Palantir In the 2010 through 12 time period. Basically to sue the government in order to win contracts.”
Coogan: Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar Has Started a Film Studio
“Yeah, we're talking to Sham Sham Sankar about this at Palantir, the CTO. He just started a new film studio, and Jim Carman's starting to do his first sci-fi film.”
Coogan: 'Pre-made' startup teams stacked with veteran operators have an unfair advantage
“And when I think about the teams that show up with startups, like. Yeah, like, and are all very much a premade in the sense that you have Palmer, but then you also have, like, three Palantir executives. It's like, how is that not gonna be successful? They real…”