The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Carter: OpenAI IP Access Now Requires Expert Review, Not Just Profit
“Sam Carter says the reported one billion of profit is no longer the sole trigger for confidential IP research access. It reportedly includes an independent expert review.”
Jon Ma Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 19:59 AI vs. Dog Cancer, Timothée Chalamet Under Fire, ‘Agents Over Bubbles' | Diet TBPN
Assertion Contradicted
Nadella: Microsoft Committed $13.5B to OpenAI Before ChatGPT Became a Hit
“I mean, if you look back, you asked how we put the billion, and the reality is we put the ten billion. Or the 13 and a half was fully committed before it became a thing, right? And remember that was all done before ChatGPT became a thing.”
Satya Nadella Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 17:32 Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella Live on TBPN
Assertion Contradicted
Coogan: SemiAnalysis clocks ChatGPT at 71% of AI query share
“So semi-analysis, clocks, chat GPTs, share of queries, it's 71%. Meta is in second at 12%, and that's with billions of users on meta products, and so OpenAI is certainly running away with consumer.”
John Coogan Jul 26, 2025 ▶ 29:57 Weekly Recap: Casey Neistat, OpenAI Cracks Math, The Future of ChatGPT, Apple x F1, Intel Layoffs
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hays: ChatGPT ads will target interest graphs, not conversation content
“From what I understand, it won't be related to the content because people are going to be annoyed at that. I would expect it in the future. It is. But in the meantime, I think it'll effectively be display ads based on your interest graph, right? What they know…”
Jordi Hays Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 27:26 Super Bowl Ad Reactions, ChatGPT launches ads, Jordi vs France | Diet TBPN
Assertion Contradicted
Hays: 20% of all ChatGPT queries are health-related
“20% of all the queries are. Okay, yeah. Are health related.”
Jordi Hays Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 25:58 xAI Raises $20B, Anthropic’s $350B Valuation, OpenAI Launches ChatGPT Health | Diet TBPN
Assertion Contradicted
OpenAI's unique API rate-limiting curves expose companies using it under the hood
“The shape of that curve and the specific timings are unique to open AI.”
John Coogan Nov 25, 2025 ▶ 15:07 Reverse Engineering 200 AI Startups, Nucleus Genomics Controversy, Drone Hunting | Diet TBPN
Assertion Contradicted
Rosenthal: Microsoft owned 49% of OpenAI when ChatGPT launched
“You know, at the worst moment for Google, when ChatGPT came out, Microsoft owned 49% of OpenAI.”
David Rosenthal Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 25:02 Acquired Podcast Hosts Break Down Google’s $1 Trillion Mistake
Assertion Contradicted
Sonwalkar: GPT-5 costs half as much as o3
“Also it's half the cost of O three. So it's much cheaper. So it helps you, helps your margins.”
Rahul Sonwalkar Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:58:07 Weekly Recap: Apple Sitting on $100B, Disney Enters The AI Race, Marc Andreessen, All About GPT-5
Assertion Contradicted
Coogan: OpenAI o1 is built on the GPT-4 foundation model
“The foundation model, yeah, it's still running GPT-IV, but obviously there's a lot of there's a lot of training to have that happens on top and a lot of UI stuff.”
John Coogan Dec 11, 2024 ▶ 2:36:12 How we became the fastest growing podcast (ep20)
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