The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 129 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
OpenAI projects $6 billion in stock-based compensation for 2025
“Company expects to spend six billion this year on stock-based comp, almost half of its projected revenue.”
Hays: Altman Memo Directed OpenAI to Personalize ChatGPT for 800M Users
“So what Sam said in the internal Slack memo is he was directing more employees to focus on improving features of ChatGPT, such as personalizing the chat bot for more than eight hundred million people.”
Coogan: Andrej Karpathy broke AI consensus by projecting a decade of agents
“Even though he's worked at OpenAI, even though he's worked at Tesla, he broke rank, he went on the Dwarkesh Patel show, and said, you know what, I think we're more in a decade of agents. I think AGI might not be right around the corner. He took a contrarian st…”
Nadella: Microsoft Committed $13.5B to OpenAI Before ChatGPT Became a Hit
“I mean, if you look back, you asked how we put the billion, and the reality is we put the ten billion. Or the 13 and a half was fully committed before it became a thing, right? And remember that was all done before ChatGPT became a thing.”
Hays: Nvidia invests $10B for every $35B in GPUs OpenAI buys
“The basics of this deal are for every thirty five billion dollars of GPUs that OpenAI buys, NVIDIA will invest ten billion. So they're effectively just like paying for GPUs with, like, 30 percent-ish equity.”
WSJ: AI data center capacity costs $50 billion per gigawatt
“Each gigawatt of capacity is expected to cost roughly Fifty billion, Tyler. Fifty billion per gigawatt, that's the number in the journal, meaning the company is laying the groundwork for at least one trillion in infrastructure spending.”
Hays: An o3-level reasoning model was open-sourced within a year of o1
“So less than one year between O one announced, which was September of 20, 24. And we have an O three level model open sourced that's runnable on consumer hardware, wild progress.”
Coogan: OpenAI generates around $1B per month in revenue
“Like, you know, they're generating, what, a billion dollars a month in revenue at this point. Everyone uses the app. It's installed everywhere. Like, that, that, that token demand is not going anywhere, that infrastructure demand is not going anywhere, so.”
Coogan: SemiAnalysis clocks ChatGPT at 71% of AI query share
“So semi-analysis, clocks, chat GPTs, share of queries, it's 71%. Meta is in second at 12%, and that's with billions of users on meta products, and so OpenAI is certainly running away with consumer.”
DeepMind Waited for Marketing Approval While OpenAI Scooped IMO Result
“DeepMind got a gold medal at the IMO on Friday afternoon, but they had to wait for marketing to approve the tweet until Monday. OpenAI shared theirs first at one a.m. On Saturday and stole the spotlight.”
Coogan: Google Used Lean Proof Verifier While OpenAI Used Text-Based LLMs for IMO
“Using this program called Lean that is a formal math proof verifier, and there's rumors that Google's building their system to leverage that a lot. OpenAI apparently went way, way down just the text-based LLM reasoning path and had a lot of success there.”
Coogan: OpenAI Announced Gold-Medal Performance at Math Olympiad
“OpenAI has announced that they have won a long, they achieved the longstanding Grand Challenge in AI gold medal level performance on the world's most prestigious math competition, the International Math Olympiad.”
Coogan: Zuckerberg Poached Four Senior OpenAI Researchers For Meta AI
“Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg successfully recruited four senior researchers from the company to join Meta's super intelligence lab.”
Moore: OpenAI scrapes YouTube to train its artificial intelligence models
“I mean, we've seen companies like open AI will scrape YouTube as well to train their models.”
Rabois: Most OpenAI revenue comes from durable ChatGPT subscriptions
“OpenAI, most of their revenue comes from ChatGPT subscriptions. That's pretty durable. Consumers or people using it, you know, for business applications, but on an individual basis.”
Coogan: OpenAI's o3 High-Compute Mode Spent $3,000 to Solve a Benchmark Task
“Oh three, which isn't out yet, but is even more advanced in terms of reasoning. They have a high compute model. That spends almost 3000 dollars per task. And it just thinks for hours and hours and hours basically, and it was able to break arc that that AI, AGI…”
Coogan: DeepSeek-R1 API is 27 times cheaper than OpenAI's o1
“The deep seek R one API is currently 27%, 27 times cheaper than open AI's O one for a similar level of quality.”
Coogan: Google Gemini's underlying tech performance matches OpenAI
“If you look at the performance of the underlying technology at Google with Gemini, it's on par, if not like back and forth with open AI.”
Hays: Stargate's $500B Plan Dwarfs Total 2024 US Startup Funding
“The companies are committing a hundred billion to the venture with plans to invest up to five hundred billion over the next four years, which actually seems- To put this into perspective, in twenty-twenty-four, I believe there was a hundred and sixty-eight bil…”
DeepSeek leapfrogged other AI labs by training on OpenAI's models
“That's not, didn't cover the fact that it seems like people have been figuring out that they just kind of like were able to leverage OpenAI's models and then like leapfrog using it.”
Coogan: OpenAI o3 high-compute configuration costs $2,000 per solve
“O-three is a reasoning model. The high version costs 2000 dollars per solve.”
Coogan: OpenAI and DeepMind both scored 35 of 42 on 2025 IMO
“Both teams got a 35 out of 42. There was a bunch of back and forth because OpenAI validated with former IMO gold medalists while Google's result was graded by the official rubric that year, which is internal to the organization.”
OpenAI has built an integration with healthcare software giant Epic
“And you can see things like we have an integration within Epic and really trying to bring each of these three pillars the best possible service independently.”
Coogan: OpenAI launches GPT-6 Astra with live blog post
“GPT-Six Astra has landed. The blog post is up. You can go check it out on OpenAI.com.”
Claude Mythos and GPT-5.5 score 20% and 15% on ExploitGym benchmark
“Claude Mythos preview successfully exploited a 157 of the 898 instances, and OpenAI's GPT 5.5 exploited one 20 within, ah, 120 of the eight 98, so you have, like, roughly 20% performance for Mythos, and 5.5 got, like, 15% or something like that, but whenever y…”
Coogan: OpenAI launched custom 'Jalapeno' chip designed with Broadcom
“I mean, the chip Jalapeno launched. Designed with Broadcom. Jalapeno is purpose-built for LLM workloads, powering ChatGPG codex, API, future agentic products.”
Coogan: WSJ reports Anthropic valuation up 173% and Q2 profitability
“Anthropic valuation up a 173% since the start of the year posting profits in Q two, according to the Wall Street Journal open AI evaluation up 67% since the start of the year”
OpenAI can now serve its products across any cloud provider
“They changed their partnership. OpenAI can now serve all of its products to customers across any cloud provider.”
Cosgrove: Musk Tried Absorbing DeepMind in 2014 and OpenAI in 2018
“He tried to absorb DeepMind into Tesla in 2014, then OpenAI in 2018.”
Hays: Millions of people have created content on Sora
“Millions of people have made content on the app.”
Cosgrove: OpenAI Will Make Additional Deals With the US Government
“Whichever way, like, the anthropic Pentagon stuff, like, evolves, like, I think it's very clear that this is not, like, the last time government deals will be made, right? Like, the OpenAI deal is not the last deal that OpenAI will make with the government.”
Hays: Dave Morin to lead OpenClaw foundation as creator joins OpenAI
“Yeah, Dave Dave Morin I remember reading, is gonna step into I believe run the foundation that will kind of steward the open source project, and then Peter's obviously joining OpenAI.”
Hays: ChatGPT ads will target interest graphs, not conversation content
“From what I understand, it won't be related to the content because people are going to be annoyed at that. I would expect it in the future. It is. But in the meantime, I think it'll effectively be display ads based on your interest graph, right? What they know…”
Hays: Sam Altman called ads a last resort in October 2024
“Sam Altman did say in October of 2024. I kind of think of ads as a last resort for us as a business model.”
Coogan: Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI's new for-profit entity
“Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI's new for-profit entity.”
Coogan: ServiceNow commits revenue in three-year deal to integrate OpenAI models
“So they signed a three year deal that will integrate the AI models. ChatGPT's models into ServiceNow's business software. The deal depends on customers using OpenAI's models within ServiceNow and also includes a revenue commitment from ServiceNow to OpenAI.”
Kalshi Markets Give Musk 60% Odds to Win OpenAI Lawsuit
“There's an update to the Elon Musk OpenAI lawsuit, which is sitting at about 60% chance that Elon wins on Kalshi right now on the prediction market.”
Merge Labs raised $252M with backing from Sam Altman and OpenAI
“OpenAI and Sam Altman backing a new bold take on fusing humans and machines. It's called Merge Labs. We've heard about this before. We talked to Rob Taves. They now have two hundred and fifty two million dollars in the bank and an all-star, all-star crew.”
Coogan: OpenAI acquired healthcare startup Torch to unify medical records
“OpenAI. They've acquired Torch. It's a healthcare startup that unifies lab results, medications, and visit recordings.”
Hays: 20% of all ChatGPT queries are health-related
“20% of all the queries are. Okay, yeah. Are health related.”
Coogan: Over 40M people daily ask ChatGPT health questions
“Fiji gave some amazing stats here with more than forty million people globally turning to ChatGPT every day for health questions.”
OpenAI eliminates six-month equity vesting cliff for employees
“OpenAI ended a policy earlier this week that required employees to work at the company for six months before their equity vested.”
OpenAI's unique API rate-limiting curves expose companies using it under the hood
“The shape of that curve and the specific timings are unique to open AI.”
Coogan: Amazon has not signed an agentic commerce deal with OpenAI
“Amazon has not done a deal yet with OpenAI for the agentic commerce thing.”
Coogan: GPT-5.1 Widens Model Routing for Variable Reasoning Time
“I saw some charts that showed that it's more that they're just pushing the model router further to the edges, so it can Reason for even longer if it needs to, and it can reason for even less time if it just can come up with the answer quickly, more quickly.”
Sarah Friar says the White House regularly consults OpenAI as an expert
“We're always being brought in by the White House to give our point of view as an expert on what's happening in the sector, for sure.”
Rosenthal: Microsoft owned 49% of OpenAI when ChatGPT launched
“You know, at the worst moment for Google, when ChatGPT came out, Microsoft owned 49% of OpenAI.”
Coogan: ChatGPT hits 700M weekly active users amid massive compute demands
“Company executives made it clear that the Abilene site was just the beginning, noting they envisioned a need for more than 20 gigawatts of computing capacity to meet the explosive demand for ChatGPT, which now has more than seven hundred million weekly users.”