why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2030
Andreessen: AI training data disputes must be solved by Congress
“In the case of training data, I think that there, I mean, there's a bunch of these copyright, you know, kind of lawsuits happening right now. There's, you know, the big New York Times opening, I won, and there's, you know, been a bunch of others. I think in th…”
Opinion
Coogan: Andrew Huberman is far more trustworthy on health than NYT
“I really would trust Huberman way more than the New York times.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Maggie Haberman will become irrelevant without building a personal brand
“Maggie, no one's going to be talking about you in a couple of years. You need to be building a brand. Like you're going to be irrelevant. Taylor is clearly a glimpse into the future here.”
Assertion Partly supported
Perplexity CEO Offered to Replace Striking NYT Workers With AI
“The real, I guess the perplexity CEO did a PR push today saying that he would happily replace all of their writers with AI. Like he did a piece today.”
Assertion Supported
Meta is projected to spend $115B to $135B on AI CapEx
“Now they're gonna plot plow a hundred and thirty five billion, according to the wall street journal, New York times said one 15, but either way, it's like more than half of the revenues.”
Insight
LLM outputs represent an average blend, not direct publisher replication
“Most of these AI things, they feel very, like, the average of everything. Every answer feels like the average of everything, and then the New York Times gets upset and says like, oh, it's exactly like us. It's like, well, it's kind of like the average of you a…”
Opinion
Hays: The New York Times takes a very negative view on business and tech
“The issue is the New York Times has gone down this very dark path of taking a very negative view on the world, business, technology.”
Insight
Coogan: Base LLMs naturally favor Kamala Harris due to mainstream journalistic endorsements
“At the same time, like, I would expect all LLMs, unless you actually went in and put your thumb on the scale, to recommend Kamala, because that's what was being recommended in all the upstream source material, right? Like, Nature magazine, Science magazine, Th…”
Opinion
Coogan: The New York Times successfully cracked YouTube with podcast packaging
“I think the New York Times has done a fantastic job here. You have the Ezra Klein Show and Ross Douthat, who are sort of like the left and right perspectives, and their shows have become really successful on YouTube, a lot due to the packaging.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: AI-Generated Epstein Podcast Nears 500,000 Downloads in Two Weeks
“Two weeks ago, the Epstein Files podcast didn't exist. Today it's about to cross 500,000 downloads and sitting in Apple Podcasts top 20 series between the New York Times and ABC and NBC News.”
Assertion Supported
Isaac: OpenAI-Musk Trial Courtroom Limits Outlets to One Reserved Seat
“So there are reserved seats in the front row for press, but the issue is only one person per outlet gets it, and we are doing, like, live blogging for, like, the big moments, like, opening statements, and for Elon, and so myself and my colleague Cade came on t…”
Assertion Contradicted
Hays: The New York Times sent 'How Long Gone' a cease-and-desist over cover art
“Chris Black has a podcast called how, how long gone. And when they released the podcast, they used art like cover art that looked Very similar to a New York Times podcast and the New York Times sent them a cease and desist and they turned it into a they turned…”