The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Microsoft's $22B Army augmented reality contract vehicle has moved to Anduril
“Who would have bet that eight years later, that Microsoft contract, that twenty-two billion dollar contract vehicle for the architecture of the Army's AR future would move over to Anduril, that we would be launching something like Eagle Eye”
Palmer Luckey Oct 21, 2025 ▶ 45:59 Palmer Luckey Live on TBPN
Assertion Supported
Leaked Microsoft memo makes OpenAI GPT the default internal AI model
“A Microsoft exec Just sent an internal memo that's designed to end token maxing and makes OpenAI's GPT, GPT, the default model for internal use.”
John Coogan Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 30:26 Demis Is Out as DeepMind CEO, Revolut Founder Yacht Drama, AI’s Great Reverse Bank Run | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Thompson: Xbox Game Pass has 30M subscribers and is decreasing
“And they, I think the, you know, the recent reporting was they expected to have seventy-five million Game Pass subscribers by this year. They have like thirty million, and that number is actually decreasing. It's not going up.”
Ben Thompson Jul 8, 2026 ▶ 17:56 Ben Thompson Explains the XBOX Disaster
Assertion Supported
Xbox announces 3,200 layoffs through 2027 with 1,600 cuts immediately
“The newly appointed Xbox CEO, Asha Sharma, has announced this morning that Xbox will lay off 3200 staffers by the end of 2027 with 1600 layoffs taking place today.”
John Coogan Jul 7, 2026 ▶ 3:46 XBOX Layoffs, Tesla's New Model Y, $12.8M Lottery Dispute | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Non-AI core infrastructure drove Microsoft Azure revenue growth
“More than half of Azure's 33% revenue jump in the company's March quarter came from non-AI services. While the company didn't give a comparable breakdown of the cloud unit's 39% growth in its June quarter, it said that the core infrastructure business, Microso…”
John Coogan Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 2:54 Weekly Recap: Apple Sitting on $100B, Disney Enters The AI Race, Marc Andreessen, All About GPT-5
Assertion Supported
OpenAI can now serve its products across any cloud provider
“They changed their partnership. OpenAI can now serve all of its products to customers across any cloud provider.”
Jordi Hays Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 1:01 China Blocks Meta’s $2B Manus Deal, Meta Bets on Space-Based Solar | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI's new for-profit entity
“Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI's new for-profit entity.”
John Coogan Jan 30, 2026 ▶ 6:28 Big Tech Earnings, Elon’s SpaceX–xAI Merge, Genie 3 | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Hays: GitHub Copilot reached around $500M in ARR
“Last we heard it was at Around half a billion in ARR.”
Jordi Hays Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 0:28 Weekly Recap: Apple Sitting on $100B, Disney Enters The AI Race, Marc Andreessen, All About GPT-5
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Microsoft Has the Least Custom AI Silicon Deployed in Cloud
“Microsoft has the least custom AI Silicon deployed to their cloud, but they're working on it.”
John Coogan Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 19:20 DeepSeek, Stargate Update, Bees Do Enjoy Honey, Golden Retriever Maxxing, Bring on the Trilly
Assertion Supported
Microsoft offers early retirement packages to 7% of its workforce
“I saw Microsoft was doing something similar. They're offering early retirement to something like seven percent of the workforce trying to lean out a little bit.”
John Coogan Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 13:36 Thoma Bravo Loses Medallia, OpenAI Drops ChatGPT 5.5, Bob Iger Returns | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Project Helix is Microsoft's next-generation Xbox console
“Project Helix is the next generation of the Xbox console.”
John Coogan Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 29:08 OpenAI drops GPT-5.4, Iran War fallout, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Nadella: Microsoft's server business was one-tenth the size of Azure
“I mean, think about our server business. It's super profitable, except it was one-tenth the size when I look at it compared to Azure.”
Satya Nadella Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 26:53 Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella Live on TBPN
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