The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 63 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Rosenthal: Microsoft owned 49% of OpenAI when ChatGPT launched
“You know, at the worst moment for Google, when ChatGPT came out, Microsoft owned 49% of OpenAI.”
Hays: GitHub Copilot reached around $500M in ARR
“Last we heard it was at Around half a billion in ARR.”
Senra: Bill Gates is Genghis Khan in a Mr. Rogers costume
“Bill Gates is like Genghis Khan in a Mr. Rogers costume. Like, he's like, dressed like Mr. Rogers, but he's unbelievably, like, ruthlessly competitive”
Will Brown: Microsoft PowerPoint Copilot is not great
“The PowerPoint, like, Microsoft PowerPoint copilot is not great. It's not a thing that I have heard many people say saves them up time.”
Coogan: Microsoft, Google, and Meta will spend $230B combined on CapEx
“Microsoft is expected to top ninety billion in CapEx this calendar year. Google is spending seventy-five billion and Meta is spending sixty-five billion.”
Coogan: Microsoft Has the Least Custom AI Silicon Deployed in Cloud
“Microsoft has the least custom AI Silicon deployed to their cloud, but they're working on it.”
Coogan: Unprofitable AI labs must separate software and infrastructure vehicles
“OpenAI is a software company with different long-term cost structure than that of an infrastructure company. That's fine if you're at Microsoft scale and profitability, but for entities that are losing money and looking to raise more, it makes sense to be diff…”
Coogan: Microsoft Will Run Compressed OpenAI LLMs Across All Core Products
“So Microsoft is going to figure out how to slot the OpenAI API and the models into Excel, Word,
Outlook, all their products, and then it's going to be an, it's going to be co-pilot on the desktop software.
Everywhere there's a Microsoft product, there will be …”
Microsoft offers early retirement packages to 7% of its workforce
“I saw Microsoft was doing something similar. They're offering early retirement to something like seven percent of the workforce trying to lean out a little bit.”
Coogan: Project Helix is Microsoft's next-generation Xbox console
“Project Helix is the next generation of the Xbox console.”
Nadella: Microsoft's server business was one-tenth the size of Azure
“I mean, think about our server business. It's super profitable, except it was one-tenth the size when I look at it compared to Azure.”
Mustafa Suleyman generated a compelling podcast live using Microsoft Copilot
“Mustafa Suleiman from Microsoft the CEO of Microsoft AI on our show prompted a podcast that was really compelling using copilot.”
Cannon: Outset's early enterprise customers include Microsoft, Nestle, and Weight Watchers
“So there's a lot of opportunity, and yeah, we work with, like, Microsoft, Nestle, Weight Watchers, so we've been super enterprise focused, and yeah, we're a couple years in.”
Coogan: Ex-Microsoft CTO Nathan Myhrvold owns the world's most T-Rex skeletons
“Nathan Mervold at Microsoft, he owns more T-Rex's than anyone in the world. He owns the T-Rex skeletons.”
Glyman: Ramp's gap to trillion-dollar tech incumbents equals seed-stage multiples
“Mathematically a company like you know, an Apple or Microsoft or Nvidia, you know, talking to a ramp is almost like a ramp talking to a seed or Siri J startup. It's actually those multiples in between valuations are about the same.”