why aren't all 32 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Lutnick: US government will acquire a 9.9% equity stake in Intel
“And at three o'clock, we're going to sign the document together in the Oval Office, where the United States of America will own 9.9% of the great American technology company Intel.”
Opinion
Cuban says government converting Intel grant to equity is awful
“The fact that it's a grant that they're converting, I think is awful, because it was meant to be a grant, and that was the deal the United States of America made, and now we're going back on the paper that we signed as a country.”
Opinion
Thompson: Intel Is a Failed Company Undone by Its Own Culture
“So there's a real national security element here, and it's just, it's a really tough situation, because Intel is a failed company at this point, and they're, and the reason the failure is so total is because The aspects that drive their failure are the same th…”
Assertion Supported
Intel Converted CHIPS Grants to Equity to Meet Trump Requirement
“So in order for the government stake to reach 10% demanded by President Donald Trump, Intel had to convert billions in manufacturing grants advanced under the 2022 CHIPS Act, plus 3.2 billion dollars of contracts from the Department of Defense into equity.”
Assertion Supported
U.S. government agreed to convert $8.9B in grants into 10% Intel stake
“Intel and the U.S. Soon agreed that the government would use 8.9 billion in grants that have been committed, but not paid to take a nearly 10% stake at a slight discount.”
Opinion
Tan: Intel doesn't need grants, welcomes US government as shareholder
“Agreement that we can work together, and then more important, I don't need the grant, but I really look forward to have the US government be my shareholder, and we can work together.”
Opinion
Cuban: Converting Intel grants to equity reneges on signed US commitments
“The fact that it's a grant that they're converting, I think is awful, because it was meant to be a grant, and that was a deal the United States of America made, and now we're going back on the paper that we signed as a country.”
Insight
Prince: Prioritizing raw performance over power efficiency is a losing chip strategy
“We've seen this game before with Intel saying, oh, that doesn't matter. Like just get the most performance possible. You can water cool things, all kinds of things. That, that tends to not be the winning strategy over the long term, and so we do think that the…”
Assertion Supported
Intel Secures $7B From Nvidia and SoftBank Following Federal Intervention
“Since Washington stepped in, as you know, Jordy Intel has pulled five billion of investment from NVIDIA, two billion from Japan's SoftBank, and its shares have more than quadrupled, trouncing those of rivals.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Intel stock gained 400% following government equity stake
“Intel's the big one where post-government stake, I think the stock is up 200 or 400%, something like that.”
Opinion
Novak: The tech industry is currently experiencing a CPU crunch
“We are currently in what seems like a little bit of a CPU crunch. Intel can't make CPUs fast enough.”
Insight
Thompson: Intel Chose Commercial Scale Over Custom Government Chips
“And Bob Noyce made the decision that we will sell to the government, but we're not going to design chips for the government. And the distinction there was you had guaranteed orders, which was great. The government would take your IP, and there was, and in his …”
Assertion Supported
Lip-Bu Tan says Intel doubled its market capitalization over $200 billion
“We double the market cap. It's over two hundred billion.”
Opinion
Coogan: The US government is not equipped to run Intel
“I don't think the government's equipped to make the decision on how they should position against TSMC, where they fit in Apple Silicon versus TPU versus Tranium. Like, it just doesn't seem like government's set up to actually run this company more effectively …”
Assertion Supported
Intel deal lets US government buy 5% more if manufacturing sells
“David Shapiro, a former partner on the Wall Street firm, Watchdoll, Lipton, and Rosen, and Katz drew up the terms, including a provision that the government could acquire another five percent of Intel at a discount if the company sells the majority of its manu…”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Intel has not received any funding from the CHIPS Act yet
“And I believe that Intel still hasn't gotten paid for anything from the Chips Act.”
Assertion Supported
Cosgrove: The Trump administration took equity in Intel and MP Materials
“So then, most recently, we, we've seen the Trump administration take you know, equity in certain companies. Right, so this is, like, Intel. This is MP Materials.”
Assertion Supported
SoftBank Agrees to Invest $2 Billion into Intel
“SoftBank led by Masa suddenly agreed to put two billion into the company, part of its campaign to bet on us firms and appeal to Trump.”
Opinion
Coogan: Intel must cut margins and price aggressively to compete on foundry
“Intel will have to be aggressive on pricing if they want to compete because they are not competitive on the actual cost of the wafer, and so they would need lower margins if they want to compete”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Intel is more expensive than TSMC per wafer
“Now, the problem is that Intel is still more expensive than TSMC on a normalized per wafer basis.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Intel cuts 15% of workforce and cancels European chip fabs
“Intel detailed dramatic steps to revive its sagging fortunes, outlining layoffs for 15% of its workforce, and scrapping plans to spend tens of billions of dollars on new chip facilities in Europe.”
Opinion
Coogan: Leading-edge fab doubts impact Intel stock more than layoffs
“This is what moves the stock, in my opinion, more than the 15% layoff.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kim: Hyperscalers are locking in three-to-five-year CPU supply contracts
“We have Dell, AMD Intel CFO talked about, they're talking about three to five year locked, locked in supply contracts from hyperscalers.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Intel, TSMC, and Samsung invested $6.8B in ASML in 2012
“ASML, the Dutch company, they did what's called a customer co-investment program. Where Intel, TSMC, and Samsung pitched in 6.8 billion dollars across R&D funding and equity purchases in the company in order to help pull in order to help ASML. This is 2012.”
Assertion Supported
Intel Valuation Sits at $110 Billion Following August Rebound
“Even with the recent share price rebound in August, followed by reports of the deal with Trump, the company is now valued at a hundred and ten billion, a fraction of his dot-com bubble peak.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Intel has already received $2 billion in CHIPS Act grants
“They've received two billion already.”
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Intel brought in $50B in revenue but lost $18.8B last year
“Just for context, last year Intel brought in fifty billion dollars in revenue, but they lost 18.8 billion.”
Assertion Supported
Intel Manufacturing Division Lost $3.2 Billion in Q2
“Tan has so far shied away from spinning off the manufacturing segment, which lost 3.2 billion in the second quarter.”
Assertion Supported
Intel Expects to Shrink Workforce to 75,000 Employees by Year-End
“Intel now expects to have 75,000 employees at year end, down from 116,500 in June of 2024.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Intel posts sixth consecutive quarterly loss of $2.9B
“Revenue in the June quarter was roughly flat at 12.9 billion, beating Wall Street's expectations. The quarterly loss, though, widened to 2.9 billion for the quarter from a 1.6 billion loss in the year earlier period. The results represent the company's sixth c…”
Assertion Supported
Intel Stock Has Dropped Roughly 50% Since Early 2024
“The stock is down roughly 50% since the start of last year.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Intel is pivoting from 'copy exact' to 'copy smart' fab manufacturing
“And so now Intel's pivoting to copy smart, only copy what's actually improvement instead of just copying everything exactly.”