The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Partly held up
Gurman: Apple to release Gemini-powered Siri revamp in spring 2026
“The big AI thing for Apple is the revamped Siri coming out in the spring. They're using a Google Gemini model to power it, which I think is going to make it pretty top tier.”
Mark Gurman Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 14:38 Mark Gurman on Apple Glasses Release Date, The Next AirPods, The Problem With Siri & More
Opinion
Hays: Siri's Gemini integration is an underrated threat to OpenAI
“It's an underrated threat for OpenAI. There's a lot of queries that all hit open ChatGBT on mobile. That are not even, like, super economic, but it's just a lot of my usage around, like, hey, just trying to learn about something or research a product, et ceter…”
Jordi Hays Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 27:08 The World’s Fastest Growing Defense Company, OpenAI’s Code Red, Google Strikes Back | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Google Gemini AI market share surged to 21.5%
“Gemini's market share is now at 21.5%. Three months ago, it was at 12.9%. 12 months ago, it was at 5.7%.”
John Coogan Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 22:24 The Jamie Dimon Apple Card, Greenland Ideas, WB-Paramount, TBPN x Vanity Fair | Diet TBPN
Opinion
Google Gemini's fragmented UI forces manual mode selection before prompting
“What I'm saying is that we are still in the pre like selected dropdown UI functionality of Gemini, because I, I'm prompted to pick what I want to do. Do you want to do image, video, deep research, text before you go into the flow instead of just saying, I'm ha…”
John Coogan Nov 25, 2025 ▶ 5:23 Reverse Engineering 200 AI Startups, Nucleus Genomics Controversy, Drone Hunting | Diet TBPN
Assertion Partly supported
Houston: Copilot lacks Slack context and Gemini lacks Salesforce data
“Copilot doesn't know about your Slack and Gemini doesn't know about your Salesforce.”
Drew Houston Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 15:40 Are AI Agents Further Away Than We Think? | Dropbox CEO Drew Houston Joins TBPN
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hays: Apple AI teams use ChatGPT and Gemini during product development
“During the development of the tabletop robot, Apple engineers have made heavy use of ChatGPT and Google Gemini to build and test features. Within Apple AI and Siri Teams as a whole, software developers are increasingly using third-party systems as part of thei…”
Jordi Hays Aug 16, 2025 ▶ 1:25:58 Weekly Recap: Sam vs. Elon, Cluely's Crazy Ad, UFC x Paramount, Apple's AI Robot
Assertion Supported
Snap glasses developers can integrate Google's Gemini AI models
“Snap said that developers will be able to incorporate Google's Gemini AI models into programs that they developed for smart glasses.”
John Coogan Jun 14, 2025 ▶ 8:40 Weekly Recap: Apple WWDC, Andrew Huberman, YC Demo Day, Intern Phone Assembly, $14B Meta x Scale
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