The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Coogan: AI providers will eventually pay Apple to route search queries
“Now my real hot take is that I think it's going to flip at some point. And I think Google or someone else is going to pay Apple To route LLM queries to them, because with the universal commerce protocol, agentic commerce protocol with ads and LLM responses, th…”
John Coogan Jan 14, 2026 ▶ 0:19 Siri needs an App, OpenAI Acquires health startup Torch, Claude Cowork reactions | Diet TBPN
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Coogan: No new chip architecture will displace Nvidia GPUs or Google TPUs
“It doesn't seem like there's some new disruptive chip architecture that's gonna come out and obviate the need for both NVIDIA GPUs and Google TPUs, and so Google's very well positioned”
John Coogan Jul 26, 2025 ▶ 1:22:12 Weekly Recap: Casey Neistat, OpenAI Cracks Math, The Future of ChatGPT, Apple x F1, Intel Layoffs
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Hays: Apple will build proprietary smart glasses rather than partner for eyewear
“My expectation, my uninformed expectation is that Apple will just make Apple glasses, right? They will probably, I, it's hard to see them taking the route at least early on of partnering and allowing another company to influence the design language”
Jordi Hays May 21, 2026 ▶ 6:02 Google I/O: Day 1 Reactions, Goldman to Lead SpaceX IPO | Diet TBPN
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Hays: Apple will block iMessage data portability to Google's Gemini
“I have zero faith that there will be any portability. And the reason for that is Apple's paying Google to effectively, yeah, white label the model, leverage Gemini in the next version of Apple intelligence. And they're just gonna be focused on integrating it w…”
Jordi Hays Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 3:33 Cloudflare Outage, iMessages in Gemini 3, 𝕏 Reactions to Gemini 3 | Diet TBPN
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Hays: Odds of Perplexity acquiring Chrome are closer to zero than 1%
“I would put the odds of this deal happening closer to zero percent than one percent.”
Jordi Hays Aug 16, 2025 ▶ 44:07 Weekly Recap: Sam vs. Elon, Cluely's Crazy Ad, UFC x Paramount, Apple's AI Robot
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