The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 76 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Alphabet is vertically integrated from chips and AI to autonomous robotics
“He's got the data center, he's got the chip, right? Tensor, right? He's got, he does a lot of the operating system type work, including the model, you know, the Gemini model, the applications he does as well, and he even gets all the way to the robotic layer, …”
Rosenthal: Microsoft owned 49% of OpenAI when ChatGPT launched
“You know, at the worst moment for Google, when ChatGPT came out, Microsoft owned 49% of OpenAI.”
Google pays Apple approximately $20 billion annually for Safari search default.
“Google's been the default search engine on Apple devices since 2002. And, they, we don't know specifics. Most recently is twenty billion dollars annually, but it's been an over 20 year partnership.”
Apple receives 36% of Google's Safari search advertising revenue.
“Apple is like confirmed to be taking 36% of the revenue from Safari that Google makes.”
Judge denied the DOJ request to force Google to divest Chrome.
“The judge denied the DOJ's request for forced divestiture. Of Chrome and Android.”
Google antitrust remedy requires sharing search index snapshots at marginal cost.
“Judge Meta attempts to address number two necessary scale by forcing Google to share various types of data, including Google search index, but not the actual data from the web pages and the index or the output of Google's PageRank algorithm. Competitors, which…”
Polymarket Gives Google 46% Odds for Top AI Model by Year-End
“Google is still the polymarket, which company has the best AI model end of 2025. So December 31st, there's been one and a half million in volume, and Google is still sitting comfortably at 46% chance of being at the Top of LM arena at the end of the year.”
Coogan: Google's search growth is driven by higher ad prices, not click volume
“The fact that paid clicks were up four percent and search revenue was up 12% makes it clear that search growth is primarily being driven by higher prices. And so the actual number of clicks is up four percent, but revenue is up 12%. That means that they're Mon…”
Google Reports That Gemini Reached 450 Million Monthly Active Users
“And that reflects the actual number that they shared, four hundred and fifty million monthly active users.”
Moore: ByteDance's SeedDance video model is already outperforming Google's Veo 3
“The new Minimax model, the new ByteDance model, SeedDance, which is in the arena, already outperforming VO-three.”
Kovacevich: Google's network ad revenue fell from 16% to 11%
“This is part of what's called their network business, which is basically like serving ads on other people's websites. This is the part of Google's business that's actually shrinking. So it was like, 16% of their business, like five years ago, and now it's down…”
Coogan: Microsoft, Google, and Meta will spend $230B combined on CapEx
“Microsoft is expected to top ninety billion in CapEx this calendar year. Google is spending seventy-five billion and Meta is spending sixty-five billion.”
Coogan: Booking middleman sites arbitrage Google search ads against hidden fees
“And they're just arbitraging the Google ad cost of winning that auction and the fees that they can add. So they think, okay, it cost us 20 dollars to acquire this customer. We'll add a hundred dollars of fees at the last second.”
Sequoia Has Generated Over $70 Billion in Cumulative Gains
“Over the years, it's made its limited partners and its own rainmakers who pocket around a quarter of the gains plus a management fee a total of over seventy billion dollars, thanks to early bets. On future tech darlings like Airbnb, Apple, Google, and Nvidia.”
Coogan: Keras creator François Chollet is leaving Google to start a company
“Francois Chollet is out at Google, entering free agency. He's gonna start a new company.”
Google earns $460 per US user annually, while Meta earns $250.
“Google makes. 460 dollars per user per year in the United States, mostly on ads. I didn't know that their ARPU was so high. Meta makes around 250.”
Hays: Google previously sued network of 10M compromised smart devices
“Last year, Google sued. The anonymous operators network of more than ten million internet connected televisions, tablets, and projectors saying they had secretly pre-installed residential proxy software on them.”
Hays: Google's AI CapEx budget is four times NASA's annual budget
“Four times NASA's annual budget.”
Google added $2 trillion in market cap since the Gemini image controversy
“Google has now added two trillion dollars to its market cap over the past 20 months since the boob shirt guy asked Sergey Brin about woke Gemini images while having a foot-long Subway cold-cut trio for lunch.”
Coogan: Gemini Daily Requests Grew Over 50% Quarter-Over-Quarter
“Daily requests grew over 50% from Q-one to Q-two.”
Hays: Character.AI Had 20M+ Users and $100M Cash When Founders Left
“So when Character AI, when the Character AI founders and part of the core team went back to Google, the other, the Character AI became a ghost ship, but it was cool in the fact that they had 20 plus million users. They also had a hundred million on the balance…”
Hays: Facebook's 2010-2011 Poaching Raid Forced Google To Raise Comp
“In 2011, in 2010 and 20 11 Zuck and Facebook went super aggressive poaching from Google. So Facebook had crossed half a billion users. They were, in that period of transitioning from a super scrappy startup. Yep. And they went heavy into Google. So they went a…”
Coogan: Apple earns about $20B at 100% margin from Google search deal
“And that's exactly what happened with Google, where, where they knew that people were going to be searching the internet using a search engine and they could, and they never needed to build a search engine because they were able to tax Google. And so they got …”
Coogan: TikTok ban legally targets app store distribution and Oracle hosting
“The law doesn't require TikTok to turn off the app. Instead, the law requires App Store operators like Apple and Google to stop making TikTok available for downloads. It also requires Oracle, TikTok's cloud provider, to stop hosting the app's U.S. Data user da…”
Coogan: Ramp significantly accelerated receipt scanning using Google OCR and GPT-4
“Early on, I remember they were they were one of the huge beneficiaries of GPT-IV for the receipt scanning because they could just do exactly what we did with the red book where they would OCR it with Google, take all the text in the picture, and then throw tha…”
Alphabet stock drops five percent at market open following DeepMind news
“Stock's down. It was down five percent around the open. It's recovered a little bit, just down three and a half percent.”